June in the Minors

 

In some ways it was a not very eventful month, but I'll find a way to write a thousand words or so anyway probably. It's my thing. Yesterday we learned Alan Roden was back down for Will Wagner to get another chance. Wagner had spent the last three weeks of May on the IL and since returning he has an .827 OPS in 57 at bats. Speaking of back from Toronto, Will Robertson had his best month so far in June with a 1.073 OPS  It would be rude not to mention Phil Clarke, I've gotten sort of interested in him before after a hot stretch and then he goes back to being a quite ordinary hitter. It's 23 games since he came off the IL and has an .851 OPS. If he kept that up he'd be more interesting. After regressing in May to a more ordinary line, Riley Tirotta is back with a .913 OPS in June, playing mostly 3B and RF. On the bad news side, after seemingly getting up off the mat in May, Orelvis Martinez ran off a 1-for-44 stretch in June that likely crashes his trade value right when the Jays needs a high-profile prospect for the deadline.

The pitching notes here would be all about relievers. Ryan Jennings has a recent spike in walks, but the sample is too small to call it a trend. Trent Wallace has made the expected switch to relief, but again, he'll need to refine his walk rate to capitalize on his other skills. Lazaro Estrada got roughed up on June 22, but without that one outing his era over the last two months is 2.25 with very nice rate stats.

In AA, it's time we took a moment to consider Jackson Hornung. Drafted as a mostly unheralded catcher in the 16th round in 2023, the switch hitter was just average for the C's last year. But in 2024 he's exploded onto the prospect list. Playing 1B and LF, his .855 OPS in Vancouver this season got him promoted to the offense-starved Fisher cats (who lost their only two productive hitters to AAA earlier in the season) and - in a tiny sample - got better. His strikeout % is very high, but even so he's been a revelation. After a brief stint on the development list, it would see Charles McAdoo profited from it. In June he has a .806 OPS (it was .534 before). I'm obliged to show a little respect to Ryan McCarty. He's 26 at AA, so don't read too much into this but he has an .843 OPS there.

New Hampshire fans are not being treated to a robust offense but they're having, for now, a rare opportunity to take in some excellent pitching. Trey Yesavage took a minute to adjust to the new level but in his most recent outing he threw 5 one-hit innings with one walk and eight K. He's been announced to suit up for the Futures Game. My guess is that early August or so he'll be off to Buffalo. Less spotlight on Juran Watts-Brown but he's working to change that. Had a little stumble in his first game a AA (which is common) but since then, in six games and 30.1 IP he's put up a shiny .207 ERA which might have him ideally situated as the potential trade chip that you can bear to part with but will be coveted by the other team. If he keeps this up though... 

Vancouver just missed securing a post-season berth as the first half ended but there's a lot to hope on with this team. CF Victor Arias rebounded from a down May to run up an .872 OPS over the course of June mostly from the lead-off spot. He's had to drive a (mostly) good-but-not-great squad suffering from a prolonged slump from Top Prospect Arjun Nimmala. Nimmala is currently on an 0-for-27 skid. Joining Arias in the playoff drive were several ;ess prominent prospects. Among them Eddie Micheletti. From May 14 to present, he has a 927 OPS. Similarly, lightly regarded (and normally light hitting) infielder Nick Goodwin had a .966 OPS in June, driven by 7 homers for the month. And there's last year's trade acquisition Cutter Coffey who had a .918 OPS in June. 

Like Yesavage before him, Khal Stephen will probably need to move along to AA after the break to be challenged. While being similarly dominant in keeping runs off the board, the report is that his stuff is not overwhelming like his draft mate but rather he's just an advanced pitcher who needs a better test. In seven starts here he has a 1.73 ERA. In fact, some observers will tell you that Gage Stanifer has better stuff than Stephen. The latter has just over a K per IP and 9 walks in 36.1 IP. Stanifer doesn't have such fine control but has almost 18 K/9 at this level. It's tricky to tell from the outside if they think he's being challenged enough to keep polishing his game at this level. Recently promoted reliever Pat Gallager leaves behind a 1.13 ERA and probably soon to join him Chay Yeager has a 1.71 having surrendered just 13 hits in 31.1 IP. 

 The guy in Dunedin who caught everyone's eye last month was catcher Ed Duran. He cooled off quite a bit in June but the samples are too small to distinguish cold streaks from trends. Second baseman Sam Shaw also cooled off a bit but was still solid. Bryce Arnold, who's split time between SS and LF, recently got a promotion to Vancouver. He leaves behind an .838 OPS though I haven't seen anyone point to him as a legit prospect. 

Our first name here is kind of a cheat since he's on a rehab assignment which he is dominating. Kendry Rojas would have almost certainly opened the year in AA. I'm not certain that's his next stop but it will be soon and there's nothing (that you can tell from results) left to prove here. Newly arrived is the latest rising star in the system, last year's 3rd round bonus baby Johnny King. He utterly dominated Complex teams (41 K in 24 IP) running up a 1.13 ERA in seven games. Highly regarded Landon Maroudis came off of the IL and has made two solid but unremarkable outings so far. A less heralded name is that of Austin Cates. Last year's 7th round pick started the year on his heels running up an ugly 7.25 ERA in his first six appearances. In eight outings since, he's pitched 33 innings with an impressive 2.12 ERA with 34 strikeouts. He'll be in Vancouver before ling if this keeps up. 

In the complex, the samples are still small, especially in the Dominican. But some names to watch can be identified. I've mentioned David Beckles (really too old for this league) and Yorman Licourt (hot May, slumped badly in June) and to that you can add SS Dariel Ramon who's got a .421 OBP and good speed.  But the real story is pitcher Troy Guthrie. He's been pitching mostly piggyback but every indication is that he's a starter going forward. With King gone last year's 11th round pick is the clear best player on this team - for ever how much longer he's here. He's sporting a 1.52 ERA with 27 K against 5 walks. 

In the DSL the names to notice across their two squads are catcher Franklin Rojas, outfielder Rafael Flores, shortstop Juan Sanchez, OF Keegan Pieternella, SS Elaineiker Coronado, and OF Nestor Urbina - all of whom are off to a good start. Also SS Chris Polanco (January's top bonus) who's...not. If you noticed the absence of pitchers in this paragraph, well, there's a reason for that. But I will nod towards Michael De La Cruz who has 20 K and 5 BB in 14.2 IP.  

The short season teams close up shop on July 24. So for most of these guys that will be the end of official games. But Guthrie surely won't be in the Complex that long and the three hitters I  mentioned may move across town to join the D-Jays when their season is over.

May in the Minors

AAA

There are actually a lot of names on the hitting side worth checking in on here. Let's start with newly recalled OF Alan Roden. He hit the ground running when he was sent down and never stopped. In 18 games he hit .361 with a 1.029 OPS. Somewhat surprisingly, the second man on the OPS ranking is OF Will Robertson. His .892 OPS is the best of his career and his walk rate has taken a dramatic upward spike. If he keeps this up he might make himself into an appealing trade chip as an add on. His OPS was .995 in May. Joey Loperfido turned his season around in late April and has an OPS of .854 in his last 31 games. Davis Schneider bottomed at with a BA of .151 on May 4, since then he's hit .275 and has an .832 OPS. How's Orelvis Martinez? Measured from April 19 he has an OPS of .818 which is...fine. He's supposed to be an elite hitter so there's work to do but he's out of that season opening slump. Little noticed or lauded 1B Rainer Nunez had a great May, logging a .313 BA and a .960 OPS.

On the pitching side there are fewer names and fewer familiar names, unless you've been reading my stuff for a while and recognize the guys I have a soft spot for. Take one-time bonus baby Eric Pardinho. Take away the game on May 8, he has a 1.08 ERA. The walk rate is still a bit too high but improving. Lazaro Estrada had a horrid April (weather maybe?) but in May his ERA was 1.85 and the rate stats support it. There's a swing man in here probably as good as guys like Lauer and Lucas at least but he'll wait his turn. Trenton Wallace is another "one bad game" story. In his first appearance he didn't get out of the first inning giving up 5 runs on four walks and three hits. Since then he has a 2.84 ERA over 31.2 innings including 38 K, yet like Pardinho, the walks are high. His career history has been to walk too many when he moves to a new level then gets it down nicely. Another who deserves a nod is swing man Andrew Bash. His rate stats are fine but not eye-catching, but his ERA is and it was below three each of the last two years. Very under the radar. 

AA

The offense in New Hampshire is still pretty ugly, with only a couple of bright spots. The brightest is RJ Schreck who got nothing much done in April but was maybe the best hitter in May with a 1.081 OPS nine homers in 97 at bats. There's not really available AB in Buffalo even though he deserves promotion. Varsho seems likely to need a few weeks with that hamstring (as Schneider gets another major league chance) but if Schreck keeps this up they'll need to find some. The other is Yohendrick Pinango  (who was promoted this weekend behind Schnieder's recall) who's slowed just a tiny bit in May but still had a .911 OPS for the month. Eddinson Paulino wasn't carrying the team but with so little going on here an OPS of .789 for May deserves notice.

Some of the pitching story here is about promotions. Juaron Watts-Brown and Grant Rogers are newly arrived and have small samples so I'll get back to them in a bit. Meanwhile hot-ticket reliever Ryan Jennings after running off a string of 10 scoreless innings over six appearances. He's only given up one run in five AAA outings since. CJ Van Eck also got promoted but the stats are just okay. What this team does have is solid relief work. Swingman Michael Dominguez has been great in both roles with a 1.42 ERA with 33 K (against 10 BB) in 25.1 innings. The stats say "ready for AAA." Connor Larkin, old for the level, has a 2.51 ERA and seven hits allowed in 14.1 IP with 20K.Geison Urbaez also has a tidy ERA (1.74) but the rest of the line is just mid. But then there's Hunter Gregory (like Larkin, he's 26) has 34 K and 10 BB in 24 IP and a 2.25 ERA in 17 games. Again, if there were not so very many retreads in Buffalo he might get a chance to move up. 

A+

To speak of Vancouver is to discuss Arjun Nimmala. He has a .900 OPS (third among qualified hitters in the league) with 9 homers (2nd) 14 doubles (1st), and 52 hits (3rd). And he's still among the youngest in the league. I had assumed he would develop at this level for the whole season but if there's no setbacks, I could see him Trying AA sometime in August just to get the new-level adjustment out of the way. Adrian Pinto was on a roll but the injury prone 2B/CF has been, wait for it, on the IL since May 10. While he recovers he's sitting on a .984 OPS. Then there's 1B Jackson Hornung. Who? That was my reaction.  The former catcher, drafted in the 16th round in '23, has blossomed at his new position and currently sports a .906 OPS. We'll see where this goes. 

Promotions are again, and especially, the story of the hour for the C's pitching. Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephens, and Gage Stanifer got their long-expected bump almost two weeks ago which led to a couple of the better starters here moving up. Juaron Watts-Brown was leading the Northwest League in strikeouts with 62 in 37.1 IP, against only 12 walks for a 3.62 ERA. This attributed to both more aggression and better control. Grant Rogers has less overwhelming rate stats but got results. He had a 1.82 ERA in 39.2 IP across eight starts. He is not a "stuff" guy so he might be another pitcher I get a crush on in A ball who never gets to the majors (see Nick Fraze for example). We'll see. Otherwise the pitchers to note are in relief, albeit with the caveat that dominating in the 'pen at A ball is often a mirage. Start with Pat Gallagher. He's sporting a 0.64 ERA on the season, only 14 hits and 10 walks in 28 IP with 30 strikeouts. Right there with him is Kai Peterson who had an insane K rate at Dunedin last year. It's more good than amazing now, but he has a o.93 ERA and a dramatically better walk rate. Chay Yeager's rate states are almost identical to Peterson's but the ERA is higher (though still fine) at 2.84.

A

There are some names here that, it seems certain, you'll see turn up as new entries on mid-season top prospect list updates. First among them maybe is 2B Sam Shaw. He didn't have a big sample in April but what he put up was poor, yet in 90 AB in May he's hit .322 with a .940 OPS. Another name suddenly on the radar ius catcher Edward Duran. Duran was the "lottery ticket" PTBNL when the Jays traded Jordan Groshans to Miami. He was pretty good the next year ('23) but regressed a lot in '24 (apart from inexplicably stealing 15 bases). This last winter, so it was reported in a piece I cannot now find and thus regrettably cannot credit, Duran took that personally and did the work. Already a well-regarded defender, Duran has advanced his game on both sides but particularly with the bat. it took him a minute to get going but he picked it up in mid-April. That was just warming up though. His slash for May is .345/.422/.563/.985 and he has at least one hit in every game for the month. Watch this guy. A couple of Dominican signings from a little while back that were said to show interesting promise are seemingly beginning to realize some of it. Both Jean Joseph and Yhoangel Aponte had dreary Aprils, both have rebounded nicely in May, with OPS of .835 and .806 respectively. Still pretty deep sleepers with a long way to go but, tip-of-the-cap.

I will lead the pitching review here with reliever Colby Martin. Though 24, he hasn't been pitching very long and his first season saw him walk 14 in 8.2 IP but the off-season work with the organization paid off. He's given up a modest 3 hits in 17.1 innings and didn't allow an earned run until last Friday. The walks are vastly improved (8) and he's struck out 22. He's said to have a big fastball and as long as he can keep putting it in the zone and getting outs he'll eventually catch some helium. Trey Yesavage ran roughshod over the league before getting promoted (as expected) racking up 55 strikeouts in 33.1 IP. Khal Stephen had an even better ERA but gave up a bit more contact. Still, he too was far too good for the league. Joining them was Gage Stanifer who's been piggy-backed with Yesavage but is throwing starter level innings. He was having his second go at the level because last year was a disaster, walking 50 in 59.2 IP - but he went out this offseason and found out he needed glasses. Boy did it pay off. He struck out 38 in 26 innings and while walking120 is still too much it's significant progress. And a 0.69 ERA speaks for itself. Next month we'll have sufficent samples in Vancouver to pour over. Gil Bautista had a couple of rough outings back-to-back this month but he's still the best remaining starter on this team (for now) with a 3.35 ERA and 41 strikeouts over against just 8 walks.

Complex

We don't have April to look back on here since they started play in May but a quick rundown of those off to a good start begins with David Beckles. He had two nondescript seasons (except for a pretty amazing walk rate for the island) in the DSL for the Yankees' system before being released and signing with the Jays. He carried that over to the Jays' DSL team last year but only hit .202 so no one looking in from the outside saw great promise. But he's off to a great start in '25 with a 1.012 OPS. Another OF, switch-hitter Yorman Licourt had an .887 OPS last season and so far is sitting at .942 as this one begins. This seems a trajectory to gain him some buzz if it continues. Second baseman Drew Jemeson has a 1.162 OPS but he's *24* in the Complex so massive grain of salt. 

Let me take a sec to look at Emmanuel Bonilla. You remember the highly praised bonus baby of January 2023? He had a nice season in the DSL that year, and was moved up to the complex for the '24 season. Through June 8, in 25 games, he was seemingly right on track, hitting .290 with an OPS of .847 but then - bad things happened. In 100 more AB that season he had SEVEN hits, two of them for extra bases. He's hard to imagine going off of a steeper cliff than that. So he's back in the complex, of course, and it started poorly. 3 Hits in his first 45 at bats. But since then he's on a seven-game hitting streak (I now, but you have to start getting off of the mat somewhere) in which he's gone 8 for 24 with a 1.012 OPS over this tiny sample. MAYBE he's figured something out?

The samples stretch even thinner on the pitching side but do take note that Johhny King (last year's 3rd round steal) has yet to allow a run in his first 8 IP while striking out 12 walking 3. Good start. Landen Mauroudis has made five appearances working his way back from elbow surgery and likely crosses down to join the D-Jays before June is over. 

Also, if you still haven't got enough, the DSL Jays start play today (June 2) with carryover 1B/C Randy Soto who did well last year and likely all of the highly paid and promising players signed in January (Chris Polonco, Juan Sanchez, Kennew Blanco, Elaineiker Coronado) so, let's check back in a month.