Prospect Stuff

 Since before the end of the season I've been mulling whether I had really anything to say about the farm that wasn't just redundant to other stuff you'll be seeing as so many sites strive to generate content. 

I'm not sure that this will entirely be that but maybe I'm not giving myself too much space to go off on tangents (ETA: I did, and had to severely edit myself). My intention is to incorporate a lose speculation about how each team will be put together in the first third (or so) of the season and mingle that with my current view of how the prospects rank (as informed by reading and listening to those who know what they're talking about). 

For the purposes of this discussion I'll treat the guys who are on the 40 man roster (and are thus subject to the lockout) as if they were free to be assigned to Buffalo under the assumption that they will join the team when the next CBA is settled. One of those, prominently, is Jake Bloss who was, as expected, granted a fourth option.

So, in order to speak of the AAA staff, I have to note who I assume will be on the Jays opening day staff. With the ever-present caveat ASSUMING HEALTH. The penciled in rotation includes Cease, Yesavage, Soriano, a second tier free agent - in my head this is Bieber - and a significant addition via FA or trade (fill in whatever name you like here - I'm not advocating for it, just assuming they will). The bullpen is built around the core five - Varland, Rogers, Miles (yes, he could end up in the rotation but that kind of speculation is beyond this exercise), Fisher and Fluharty - joined by Little (out of options and too good to cut) Ponce for long relief (adding Bieber plus would push him out of the rotation at first) and the 8th spot might be thought of as Shuttle (guys with options who come and go from Buffalo as the pen has need for a fresh arm).  I'll note as I go along who they currently have as likely passengers on that shuttle.

Here's a spoiler on how I self corrected - I found myself referencing EVERYONE who might be on this team - that goes on way too long, so understand that if you don't see someone you were expecting - say Grant Rogers - that's because I didn't consider him worth noting. This is about guys who are either ranked prospects or considered legit sleepers to impact the major league team next year.

So, the tentative Buffalo rotation would look like this early on:
Spencer Arrighetti - that he has options increases the odds that he will stay stretched out here as the first line of defense (if he gets his stuff together) should the Jays need to plug in a starter.
Jake Bloss - You have to believe in the upside (still a highly ranked prospect) still but he could make noise or fall apart, this is the year to make your move.
Nolan Perry - the highest ranked pitching prospect was likely good enough in his time at AA to line up this promotion with a reasonable spring performance. But a conservative assignment to get more time in AA isn't impossible.
Gage Stanifer - It is reported that they are not willing to give up on him as a SP yet however, in the right circumstances he could join the shuttle crew as a reliever since he (like Perry) will need to be added to the 40 this month. While a top 10 prospect, he has significant work to do with command and control still.
Daniel Guerra - Similarly situated (top 20 prospect, must be protected, might move faster in relief, they still want to work him as a starter and see if that works out) might end up in the Jays 'pen before the year is out.
Chad Dallas - Most of these teams will run a six man rotation often given the way the MiLB schedule is structured. Dallas finished strong (he has worked his way onto prominent top 30 lists), with only one stinker in the last couple of months, but it sure feels like his MLB future, if he has one, will much more likely be the "bulk" guy on the staff than a regular-turn starter. He might get the opportunity to prove himself as deserving more opportunity than that. 

That projects to being one of the strongest AAA rotation (on paper) in all of AAA. Laying aside Arrighetti you're following him up with five guy who appear on many organizational top 30 lists. I can't really remember a rotation in the Jays farm system that was this stacked, even one I'd compare. 

For the bullpen, note here before I begin that Stanifer, Guerra, and Dallas all have considerable potential to shuttle to Toronto either as spot starters, bulk relievers, or even leverage guys. These are others of note.

Ricky Tiedemann - Still generally in the top 10, I continue to hold out hope that there's a pretty dominant starter in here but the odds are very high that they will be relatively careful with him this year and try to get a whole season of healthy, effective, innings out of this arm. The ceiling, for this season, is that they use him like they used Spencer Miles, but with the liberty for some of that to happen in AAA. All this said, they (and we) would REALLY like for him to blossom in the majors when there's room.
Brendan Celluchi - Maybe his late season success for the Jays was a mirage. But maybe not. Picking up an effective major league lefty in minor league free agency would be quite the win. The walks were a little high for the Bisons last year, but that's a difficulty they've dealt with before.
Jose Rodruigez - Picked up late in the year from the Dodgers and the reporting was that they are actually quite high on this guy. 
Josh Winchowski - a major league veteran signed last winter to a two year deal as most of this season would be lost to recovery. If you do that, you see the guy as a potential help to the major league squad. But not currently on the 40. IF he's called up, they won't be able to demote him without going through waivers so he'll have to really force it.
Javen Coleman - Until he hit AA the lefty was the sexy pick for "guy who might force his way to the majors fast" but he stumbled at the highest level. Still widely consider to be a legit prospect (on both BA and Pipeline Top 30 lists).
Yondrei Rojas - Highly regarded as a sleeper prospect a year ago, an injury marred season slowed his progress but I doubt they think less of him.

Now we're up to 12 names and I still haven't mentioned 10-12 more guys in the pool of players that will either be assigned here, hurt, or out of the org.

Clearly these posts still will go on too long so I'm going to need probably four posts to get to everything. I'll go ahead and do the AA staff here and hope that the rest are not so wordy. 

Johnny King - Depending on who you ask, either he or Perry is the best pitching prospect in the system. He's only had 5 AA starts (to be fair, Perry only has nine so he might start the season at AA - but he doesn't have the walk-rate history King does) but if he gets in the zone more dependably he might be in Buffalo by mid-season.
Danny Thompson, Jr. - At the last update, both BA and Pipeline had him at #16. It's absolutely incredible that this guy was a "signability" pick that only got $5,000 to join the Jays. He has yet to encounter a pro level in which he hasn't excelled. He got more AA innings than Perry and King have combined and if you told me that it was he, not Perry, who broke camp with the Bisons I would not be even slightly surprised.
Austin Cates - above average early in a brief stay with Vancouver, he was wildly inconsistent in AA. The team seems to like him a lot and maybe they know something that doesn't show in the stats (was "working on some things" maybe?) but he'll need to repeat here and try to reward their faith. He has appeared previously near the back end of both lists
Jackson Wentworth - then seem to like the guy - he got more innings than anyone else here - but nothing in the stats would tell you why.
Fernando Perez - A polarizing prospect a year ago, got results with tight control and "pitchability" but not a whole lot of "stuff." He missed almost all of 2026 but wasn't on the injured list and no one who knows will say why (that implies some sort of off-field personal matter). When he came back his control was entirely absent. Even with a lot of optimism he's a fringy prospect.
Dasan Hill - I might be pushing it here in that he only had five starts in the Jays system at Vancouver, but he got 21 in High-A altogether. Like fellow lefty King, he has a good bit of work to do it drop his walk rate without sacrificing any of his stuff. But he's a way more promising prospect than anyone else who might be added to this rotation.

TJ Brock - Had observers really buzzing in the spring of '24 as a guy with fast-riser potential and maybe closer stuff. Then he hit the IL in June and missed the rest of the year. And all of '25. And most of '26, only coming back to get 7.2 IP of rehab. Who know what he has left.
Mason Olson - The lefty has some buzz, he got some spot starts but was much more effective pitching in relief. Would be pushed to AAA if it wasn't so crowded. 
Alex Amalfi - If you listen to org people in interviews, they talk up this guy but while he continues to rack up the strikeouts, his results have gone backwards. In 2025 in AA he allowed four homers, in 2026 at the same level in a similar number of innings he gave up *twenty-four* - I don't see the appeal.
Carson Myers - Interesting lefty signed as an undrafted FA out of Auburn in 2025 and has put himself on the radar. Homer and walk rate both went up when he got moved up to High-A so there's work to do even if he's keeping runners mostly off the board.
Kelena Sauer - If you don't know it already, do yourself a favor and go look at the Hawaii native's middle name. That alone should get him to the majors. He got off to a really good start in Vancouver, and earned a promotion to AA where he was more inconsistent including one particularly rough stretch after the break. Will need to do better.
Holden Wilkerson - Another guy who's only here because the staff people talk him up. Like Olson, he got some spot starts and similarly, he was better in relief. But still not anything that jumps off the stat page. 

I'll try to do the rest of the pitching in the next post - the further you get from the majors the more speculative you have to be. Then the hitters in two posts divided similarly. Feedback welcome. 

The Incoming Fire Sale (?)

  

So. It has been my position that the owners and the fans have too much invested in this season for Atkins to relent and pull the plug on this season. BUT each new day we are treated to a barely watchable listless effort from this lineup that seemingly can't bring themselves to give the GM some cover for acquiring some help, however long the odds. Certainly it might still happen but no one watching this team can see the potential for a sharp turnaround.

In that context my mind turns more and more to what a sale might look like as opposed to what might be available to rescue this squad. 

I've also been in the camp of "sell what?" because it didn't look like a promising crop, particularly if you're just making selective adjustments rather than beginning an overhaul. But maybe I'm too skeptical about value for trades, but I also recognize that there's so much uncertainty about how many teams will sell that it's possible nominal values might get inflated due to a forced scarcity. So maybe there's something to look forward to if not, ya know, winning ball games. Here's an exhaustive list of veteran players that might move. Mostly pending free agents but not entirely. 

Kevin Gausman - three turns left before the deadline, would have to impress scouts that (like last year) he's shaken off a bad June and is on track for a good second half. Some media speculates they would like to bring him back next year but if you get a tempting offer you take it and he'll understand. You can always resign him after the season if you want.

Shane Bieber - 2 more starts, similarly he has to pitch well in both but that seems much more likely after Saturday. He, too, could always be approached in the off-season if you want.

Max Scherzer - won't be healthy in time. If someone wanted to take on the gamble it would be for the most menial long shot A ball guy, and Scherzer might at least be able to take some turns if you do open up two holes in the rotation.

Jeff Hoffman - I'm a little skeptical here but there's every chance they will get their best offer for him and not be willing to say no.  That is, they don't have to be shopping him to get real quality offers (Maybe something involving Jett Williams if they think he can be a quality CF? This would be a spot where you'd want to address an impending hole if you can)

Yimi Garcia - similarly to Scherzer, no one should count on him

Patrick Corbin - fringy return if anything (which might still turn out nice, but not someone any of us have heard of now. That kid they got for Seabold has shown well early, something like that is best case)

Brendon Little - if anyone thinks they can fix him? He's thrown away pretty much all of the theoretical value he had a year ago.

George Springer - if he's convinced anyone with his .753 OPS in his last 38 games? I could see a team like the Braves thinking decent offense and vet leadership might be an asset. He'd have to agree to it (5/10)

Dalton Varsho - the horrific offense since he hurt the wrist really drags him down, but while he's no longer a premium CF, the Phillies, Astros, White Sox, Rays, and Marlins all might see him as an upgrade. A Hot streak would help. Likely has more market value than many Jays fans would expect.

Myles Straw - not going to get a premium return but a confident contender would like to improve at the margins.

Jesus Sanchez - again, a marginal add but a team with a need at DH as well as some outfield reps - Cleveland for example - could be interested.

Andres Gimenez - I don't know how, but it would be deeply stupid to pass on any opportunity. Moving at least the majority of his remaining money without taking on another bad contract would be a deal you dare not decline. I personally can't imagine how you'd do that and you'd surely get nothing but a wild card A ball guy or a very fringy quad-A dude. But this is a case where the exit is the most important thing. 

Lukes? Doesn't seem like they'd particularly want to but I could see there being teams that would find him interesting. How much would they pay for that interest though?

They'll get calls on Clement but that would be REALLY ballsy.

Could be as many as 6 or 7 deals out of that group IF Ross is cold-blooded enough to go full-reset. If you take it as a given that Pending free agents are (or will be if current trends continue) definitionally available the only two other people mentioned here who might be considered part of the "emotional core" of the '25 team are Lukes and Straw (I don't think Ross dares trade Clement) and so there's potential here if the players in question (particularly Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, and Springer) play well enough to be more desirable. 

Besides the obvious desire to add prospects, I wonder if they'll look for chances to add reclamation projects rather than just middling prospects. For example, Andrew Painter - is he REALLY just a complete bust or is there still potential there that Pete and his staff can pull out of him? As previously mentioned, an opportunity to add someone that would at least compete to be important players on the '27 team. Particularly starting pitchers and potential center fielders. 

I assume much of this will be obsolete before the weekend, but it's what I do. 

Gut Check Time

  This is a difficult summary to write because you really can't summarize anything. It's all "well if this happens then they could do that but if that happens then they'd maybe do this..." Everything is conditional. But the reason I'm writing out my thoughts is because I think there's a larger context that is also in play.

As any fan paying attention can sort out for themselves, there are basically three paths:

1. They come out of the break hot and end up .500 or better by the end of the month.

2. They continue to collapse and are 10, 12 games under by the end of the month.

3. They revert back to what they did for a month to get back to .500 (18-12, .600) which would leave them 3 games under on the morning of August 2.

In the first case they buy, in the second case they just write it off and sell, in the third they likely do a little of both. But the other context is that looking forward to '27 (as Ross Atkins WILL do) a lot of the roster is fixed already which limits the ability to improve the team apart from internal improvements (Vlad, Kirk, etc).

Working through the lineup, you can see the problem. Next year's catchers are this year's catchers (which should be a good thing). Next year's starting infield is, barring the incredibly fortunate possibility of getting some other sucker to take Giminez's contract, will be the same four guys and the reserve is flexible but not the position you look to for a big upgrade. The DH, if Springer isn't brought back, will almost certainly be (expected to be) Anthony Santander. If healthy they will try to play him, they won't write off that contract casually.

That leaves outfield as the only real opportunity for external offensive upgrade. They have to assume Barger is the presumptive RF, and they'll have Lukes and Straw (yes they will exercise his option) in reserve. They have, in house, a number of possible but replaceable LF options - Sanchez, Pinango, Schreck, Clase. But the first two are very bad defenders and not yet enough of a hitter to justify having a lock on the position. The others largely untested at all. Center is an issue because Varsho has suddenly become an ordinary defender which means he need to bring above average offense - which he might...or might not. But the free agent options beyond him for center field are pretty bleak.  The upshot is that whether they are adding a month from now with '27 in mind, or considering off-season upgrades (which would presumably come after the lockout is resolved) it will take considerable skill.

Behold

If you wisely assume that Acuna gets his option picked up, there's no upgrade on Varsho there (Grisham is something of a wash) and no offensive savior beyond Arozerena and Suzuki. When half or more of the teams in baseball are hungry for a good RH hitter. 

So Ross is out there this month trying to figure out if the trade market can solve either of those problems.

On the pitching staff, the rotation is kind of wide open in theory. There are three guys whose names are written in ink - Cease, Yesavage, and Ponce - and barring a big injury, Spencer Miles has a big leg up on one of the others. That leaves one slot, which won't be Berrios because he'll miss most or all of '27. They might bring back Gausman if he doesn't retire and after that it's about depth. The have, if healthy, Francis, Bloss, Dallas, Tiedemann, Perry and Stanifer  in line and close. That's good but one presumes they'd like something more than a TJ recovery and five rookies. The implication here is that Atkins would love to add a pitcher with control beyond this year (as he would with hitters) which thins the market again. 

The Marlins can't defend trading Alcantara while they're hot. The Twins don't seem on a path to sell off so Ryan may not be out there. KC is going nowhere but they just extended Waca, I don't think they want to move him. That leaves Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano with the Angels who are notoriously clingy about keeping guys they could get value for. Both Soriano and Detmers have 2 more years of control and I'll bet that if you really knew, Atkins would rather acquire that than Skubal this summer. Of course there are other options for this year who are pending free agents but those have no implications for '27. I think the Jays would go pretty hard on those Angels even if they were otherwise selling.

The bullpen to me is fascinating from a trade deadline perspective because if they are adding at all, Atkins always adds relievers at the deadline (unless they are way out like in '24). The thing is - there's not much room. There are the five core guys that have been, in most cases, overused - Varland, Hoffman, Rogers, Fisher, and Fluharty - plus Spencer Miles and there's six of eight spots spoken for. Three of those can technically be optioned but seem unlikely to be. Tommy Nance doesn't. He might get flipped but he's not just gonna be cut so there's seven.  That leaves Corbin who they very well might just let him go, so there's room to add one, but two? Not unless there's an injury. If you did add a guy who can't be optioned you've already filled most of your '27 'pen. 

Not that the bullpen needs to get better, as of right now, but bullpens are notoriously unpredictable. Point of all these many words is that there's WAY more room for Vlad, Kirk, Barger and Santander to improve the offense as any outside addition, and if Atkins did land a guy with control next year, there's not THAT much flexibility with the primary rotation (yes, I know how they are living out the "never have too much pitching" dream this year).

Speculation Time

 And it gets more complex.

The Jays traded for Simeon Woods Richardson (who has no options) but John Schneider says he won't go Thursday (he has the rest but travel and stuff). Trey Yesavage could go on 4 days tomorrow and SWR on Friday, but if not then probably Chad Dallas (on the taxi squad) gets activated tomorrow and that needs a roster spot.

They could DFA Yariel Rodriguez again (no one will claim him) which frees a spot, or demote Juenger and DFA Andrews (no great loss if he's claimed, doesn't have the experience to declare his free agency). In any case, Dallas would yield to SWR no later than Friday.

But this puts another guy you can't option on the depth chart making my previous speculation more complicated. So somewhat revised:

Cease bumps whoever has survived of Rodriguez/Juenger - now both are off of the 26 and there's a 40 man spot available.

Kirk -> Heinemann (on 26 and 40) if I'm wrong, then they'd need to DFA McIver to open a 40 man spot.

Scherzer (or Nance) -> Macko

Nance (or Scherzer) -> if everyone is healthy he'd have to bump Seabold or SWR

Garcia -> if everyone is healthy would have to bump the other one

Barger -> Pinango for the same reason as before - the kid needs to play every day.

At this point your staff is Gaus, Cease, Trey, Max, Corbin and Varland, Rogers, Hoffman, Fisher, Fluharty, Miles, Nance, and Garcia

Remaining on the IL (60) are Bieber, Mantiply and Estrada. When the latter is ready they can activate and send to AAA but that ties up the open 40 man spot.

When Bieber is ready, if everyone is healthy they will probably have to cook up a phantom injury because they don't want to lose any of those guys. Andrews (or someone like Clase) will need to be DFA'd.

Mantiply won't be eligible to come off until after the ASB.

If Seabold or SWR prove themselves indispensable then, well, that will be an interesting day.

Bloss will (if all goes well) be available before the ASB, maybe Tiedemann in a couple of months, but neither MUST affect the 26 man roster so not really relevant here.

Aggregate Top Prospect List

 

This is an exercise I've done every year for a while now with the same set of seven high profile sources. This year there's one missing and I waited so long to see if it would appear that I forgot to write it up. Indeed, i can't find a clue anywhere to explain the complete absence of Scotty Mitchell and his work from basically anywhere online.

So in the absence of that one, these are the unsurprising six: Baseball America, Fangraphs, Kieth Law at the Athletis, MLB Pipeline, Baseball Prospectus, and ESPN. The usual caveat applies - since the latter two lists are only 10 names there's the possibility of skewing the list as you go lower but there's nothing for it. I'll try to keep remarks brief, but I do have the first month to comment on.

1. Trey Yesavage (120) Toronto - you know as much as I do. He'll lose list eligibility on June 10 (IL time doesn't count, apparently)

2. Jojo Parker (111) Dunedin - started hot, slumping lately (3 for his last 38) which is the nature of the adjustment game.

3. Arjun Nimmala (109) New Hampshire - Newly promoted, he has yet to play in AA

4. Johnny King (101) Vancouver - Has been an absolute beast so far despite his youth relative to the level. 

5. Ricky Tiedemann (95) injured list - Said to have begun throwing, speculating maybe he gets into some games in Florida by the end of the month. Needs health more than anything.

6. Gage Stanifer (86) New Hampshire - the stuff is still there but he's lost all control of it. 16 walks in 18.2 IP so far. Yikes.

7. Juan Sanchez (73) Dunedin - Not hitting early but very young for full season ball and it's far too early to say anything.

8. Jake Bloss (69) injured list - recovering from TJ surgery, shouldn't miss the whole year unless there's a setback.

9. Victor Arias (55) New Hampshire - currently just starting a rehab assignment in Dunedin. 

10. Yohendrick Piñango (45) Toronto - I confess, I was skeptical of this one but I see what you see.

11.Jake Cook (42) GCL - the rookie level team just started play on Saturday.

12. Josh Kasavich (36) Buffalo - One of the starts of ST, good but not great so far at AAA, but much better than his injury riddled 2025

13. RJ Schreck (34) Buffalo - cold as ice so far, little to be encouraged by here.

14. Silvano Hechavarria (24) Vancouver - Has had one (very good) rehab outing in Florida but it's not impossible that when he's activated he'll be in AA pretty quickly as he's already older than almost all the Vancouver starters.

15. Sam Shaw (23) Vancouver - 60-day IL

16. Blaine Bullard (21) Dunedin - raw but obvious talent, could climb lists like this quickly

17. Fernando Perez (17) New Hampshire - has been an absolute mess. Something is amiss here.

18. Angel Bastardo (14) - well that didn't work out

19. Sean Keyes (12) New Hampshire - arguably the best hitter in the system so far, likely in Buffalo before the break - and in the top 10 of lists like this if he keeps this up.

20. Brandon Barriera (12) Dunedin - the recovery is inconsistent so far. Others are progressing better.

For bonus content, here are some guys who missed the list but will likely be on midseason lists if their early performance holds up:

Charles McAdoo - started red-hot, has cooled some Landon Maroudis - parallel track to Barriera, showing much better after looking rough late last summer Nolan Perry - just promoted to join Moroudis (and King) in Vancouver after dominating in Dunedin Jace Bohrofen - like Keyes, a beast so far and on track for promotion to Buffalo soon Spencer Miles - gotta name check him even though he loses list eligibility in less than a week Tucker Toman - Really looked like a bust for his first 2.5 years, mid-season '25 it began to click. It's still clicking Austin Cates - just got promoted to AA, he was a tick old for Vancouver so this is a good test Emmanuel Bonilla - Last two seasons in the Complex were outright horrible. He's not dominating this year at Dunedin but he's doing pretty alright which, in context, is worth celebrating. Danny Thompson Jr - fill in starter in Vancouver has come out of nowhere to dominate. Like Cates, he's 23 but still, the stat line jumps off the page.

What Next?

  

It's fair to say that they could, if they want, head into April with the current crop, but now that the premium purchase aisle is cleaned out (apart from Bellinger) but there are a couple of aspects that would seemingly benefit from further tweaks. Let me take the small one first.

They need to decide whether Barger is an everyday guy who needs to not be sheltered from lefties so he can refine his production against them. He had years in the minors where his splits were fairly balanced so that would be reasonable and, frankly, what I want to see  because I'm a committed believer in Addison Barger. BUT a case can be made to add some layer of insurance by seeking out someone who cruses lefties to get some reps in those situations. There's not a lot to choose from available across the league, but there are two (at least) remaining free agents who have been very productive vs lefties the last few years: Autin Hayes, and Miguel Andujar. Neither profile as a RF but you can juggle around to make it work. However, if you add a guy like that then Nathan Lukes (most likely) is squeezed off of the roster. It's difficult to discern how the team feels about this one.

The other is the question of second base. In my view, Ernie Clement is at or very near his ceiling and that ceiling is at best league average hitting, mostly against LHP with plus defense. If he's your everyday 2B then you're content to carry two hitters every day for their defense. There's no one better than him left in free agency so to upgrade here is to make a trade and, to be clear, any trade that's a notable  upgrade will hurt you in the prospect costs.

Given that Mike Hazen in Arizona has declared the talks for Ketel Marte are now in the past, I submit that there are four possibilities.

I'll mention Nico Horner first as it seems unlikely he'd be flipped because of Bregman's arrival. Technically, you could try to change their mind if they think they'd be fine moving Shaw over, but For completeness, he's a marginally above-average hitter who, so the metrics say, is an excellent defender. That has added up to an impressive 17.5 fWAR over the last four seasons. Also, he's a free agent next winter in a really thin market so the heavy price would get you only one year, even if.

Another guy who's been displace by a free agent signing is Mets infielder Brett Beaty. A 26-year-old LH hitter who can play second and third, has 4 years of control, who put up a 2.3 fWAR last year. He split a bit better vs RHP last year (comparable to Barger in that regard) so you could work in Erine vs LH at both 2B and SS. His major league track record id shorter but he's a former first rounder who smoked the ball in the minors. He'd probably cost marginally less than the next two in terms of prospects but one would think that the Mets are not interested in just dumping him either. You have the benefit here of them not trying to ask for Barger in return since they wouldn't have an opening at either 3B or RF. Worth exploring.

The guy who's been talked about the whole off-season is Brendan Donovan. He's also a LH hitter, with two years of control remaining and who has a track record of 2.5-3 WAR on average each year. His splits lean heavily towards hitting RH setting up a theoretical platoon with Clement. But the reporting all winter has been the asking price is high and multiple teams are interested so you'd do well just to get him without trading someone (other than maybe Lukes or Schneider) off of the major league roster. Even then, can the Jays outbid the competition at a price they are willing to pay for just two seasons?

Which brings me to my favorite target: C.J. Abrams. He's the Nationals' full time SS although the defensive metrics are not a fan. If you land him then he's going to 2B. He's 25, has three years of control, a LH hitter who's career splits lean towards the direction you'd assume. By bWAR he's been 3.4 or better the last three seasons who can hit 20 homers and steal 30+ bases. What would he cost? Presumably A LOT. Some would ask "Why would they consider it?" to which I reply - if they'll listen on Mckenzie Gore they'll listen on Abrams

As with Donovan, if someone like Seatle found out he could be had they would rush to join the bidding so it's not just a matter of paying what he's worth but making a better offer than any other team has. I have no real idea if the Jays can do that without a very harsh price, but for the purpose of this speculation I'll rule out dealing anyone on the major league roster other than Nathan Lukes or Davis Schneider. (I can imagine a scenario in which they sign Cody Bellinger with a view towards including Barger in a trade like this but I'm not going to get that complex.

As an example of what the price would look like, assume a rubric like this: We have a basket for guys who are still rookie eligible that you can't have. To start Trey Yesavage is already in it. Next, between Arjun Nimmala, JoJo Parker and Juan Sanchez - you are free to pick one but the other two go in the basket. Next, you may choose between Ricky Tiedemann, Gage Stanifer, and Johnny King - the other two go in the basket. Finally, we'll add pretty much any two other guys not already in the basket. Imagine something like Fernando Perez and Josh Kasavich but you can't entirely know who they might find appealing.

Would I trade Nimmala and Stanifer and Perez and Kasavich for three years of Abrams? I think so. Would the Jays? Quite possibly. Would it be enough? I have no idea. But I'd spend the next month or more pushing them.

You could slide him (or Donovan) right into the #2 slot in the order and have an awfully well-rounded lineup.  I don't have a clue whether anything like this would or could happen, but I can't believe that Ross Atkins feels fully content to play Clement at 2b virtually every day next year and not see it as a position that needs an upgrade. 

Running it Back... Or not?

 

I have, and will continue to, made the argument (which I'll review below) that the Jays CAN with some confidence effectively run it back next year. Watching Shane Bieber opt in is a pretty strong testimony to the value of THIS group remaining largely cohesive and whole going forward. 

That said, there are some interesting "pull out the stops" possibilities that I want to append to my argument also. However, with an impending lock-out next winter, some things that might otherwise seem logical might be more tricky.

First things first: nothing good comes with letting Bo leave. Re-signing Bichette is job 1-10, everything else spins off from that. If/when you do that you CAN run back the same offensive squad (minus France and IKF of course). 

Second, I see a lot of speculation that assumes Barger in RF with Clement as basically the full time 3B. I disagree with that. Santander needs one OF spot (most days) and that means you're either losing an OF off of the roster (Lukes?) in order to have Clement in the everyday lineup (and you'd replace him with probably IKF in the utility job Clement has had). I wouldn't do that. Offensively, Lukes and Clement were basically a wash last year. Clement has a better WAR because of excellent defense and 150 more PA, but other metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ slightly favor Lukes. So for me, Barger's at 3B, Clement is still utility, and Santander has space on an OF corner. But I have one more thought on this that I'll save until the end.

Some, when considering the bullpen, are casting a lustful eye towards someone like Edwin Diaz. I'm not saying I'd be mad, but I've never seen anything to suggest that this front office is going to throw an AAV over $20mil at ANY closer. Plus I see no reason why the Mets won't. IF I were Ross Atkins and I did want to throw more money than I'm comfortable with at a closer, it would be Devin Williams who will come cheaper and very likely be almost as good (from May 7 through the end of the season he was fine in '25). Other than those elite options, there's not THAT much bullpen talent available that's clearly better than what they have. 

Consider the guys who are either under contract, too good to send down, or out of options and you already have quite a crowd. Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, Fisher, Rodriguez, Nance (out of options), Sandlin, Bastardo (can't be demoted Rule 5 guy) from the right side and Little, Fluharty, and Bruhil (OOO) from the left. And that's not counting the possibility of pushing Lauer or Bassitt (if he stayed) into a long relief role. Those seven bolded names seem right now to hold a pretty firm grasp on a spot and if you add, say, a guy that will push Fisher to the minors then that guy will need to be CLEARLY better (like Williams would be). Though, to be clear, if it were my job and I signed a closer I would pair that with trying to trade Rodriguez since he'd be pushed out of clear role.  But I don't think they will treat this as a crying need. Particularly when good teams can re-evaluate in July and acquire bullpen help (and usually do).

That leaves the rotation. If we were closing in on Spring Training, your rotation now is Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios, and Lauer. Most speculate they would like to add one more and my only condition there is that if you are going to bump Lauer to the long/swing role, you have to add someone CLEARLY better. He can understand if that happens but not an add just to be adding. Bassitt is adamant about wanting to return, which ...maybe? They're going to need to sort out how much "keeping the family together" weighs against "is there space here for an upgrade?"

Another bit of speculation I've seen is "maybe they can trade Berrios" but...nah, I don't think so. Unless he has a career year next year (which you can't possibly anticipate) he WILL pick up the remaining 2 years and $48 million on his contract next winter. Only a fool would pass on that staring into a potential long and harsh work stoppage. This is a reality every other team will be aware of. Are they going to want $66 million of downside risk on the chance that he'll have a career renaissance next year? I don't think there's any such team out there.

Back to the main subject though. For me, if I'm adding a free agent I'm going hard on Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai. He's notably younger than the other top-shelf free agents (28 next year) and if you're gonna need to offer 5-plus years that has a lot of value. Check this profile from MLBTR

In the absence of that, possibly a trade (Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan leap to mind but there are others I'm sure) might serve better. This particular choice - to still add a theoretical top-tier SP even after Bieber opted in, or not to, will be a big tell this winter. Ross Atkins implied today they were looking at adding and specifically mentioned exploring trades.

Finally, about that stray thought I mentioned regarding the line-up, there is one other scenario I'd indulge: quietly explore whether it's possible to move on from Santander, maybe by eating the deferred money. Possibly there's a team that can plug him in at DH and let him bop. For the Jays this would open the door on maybe keeping Springer around a while longer if the regression isn't too steep, but it does something else pretty radical - it opens right field for a run at Kyle Tucker. If, indeed, they are channeling the Dodgers model, bringing back Bo AND signing Tucker (or alternately having lost Bo to a team that will let him play SS, "replacing" him with Tucker) would be a boss level move. As of right now, the projected roster adds up to (on my sheet) $210-215 million, which is around $70 million short of what the spent this year. Peel off Santander and you'd be over 85 before you exceed the 2025 payroll. Looking at the MLBTR top 50 Bo, and Imai, and Williams, AND Tucker add up to more or less $100 million.

Do I think they can have a lot of success mostly running it back - on paper, yes. But look at this:

Springer - DH
Barger - 3B
Vlad - 1B
Tucker - RF
Bo - 2B
Varsho - CF
Kirk - C
Lukes/Schneider - LF
Gimenez - SS
(or keep Santander if you can live with the glove, play him in left and hit him sixth and potentially be even stronger) 

That's beast mode for years to come. You could approximate that for around $10 million less if you went with Bellinger too, I suppose. So I'm not saying I'm AGAINST some augmentation, I'm just saying there's no gaping wound to be addressed. I'm fascinated to see if they think this bunch still has World Series magic or they decide to kick out the jams and hulk-out.