I have, and will continue to, made the argument (which I'll review below) that the Jays CAN with some confidence effectively run it back next year. Watching Shane Bieber opt in is a pretty strong testimony to the value of THIS group remaining largely cohesive and whole going forward.
That said, there are some interesting "pull out the stops" possibilities that I want to append to my argument also. However, with an impending lock-out next winter, some things that might otherwise seem logical might be more tricky.
First things first: nothing good comes with letting Bo leave. Re-signing Bichette is job 1-10, everything else spins off from that. If/when you do that you CAN run back the same offensive squad (minus France and IKF of course).
Second, I see a lot of speculation that assumes Barger in RF with Clement as basically the full time 3B. I disagree with that. Santander needs one OF spot (most days) and that means you're either losing an OF off of the roster (Lukes?) in order to have Clement in the everyday lineup (and you'd replace him with probably IKF in the utility job Clement has had). I wouldn't do that. Offensively, Lukes and Clement were basically a wash last year. Clement has a better WAR because of excellent defense and 150 more PA, but other metrics like OPS+ and wRC+ slightly favor Lukes. So for me, Barger's at 3B, Clement is still utility, and Santander has space on an OF corner. But I have one more thought on this that I'll save until the end.
Some, when considering the bullpen, are casting a lustful eye towards someone like Edwin Diaz. I'm not saying I'd be mad, but I've never seen anything to suggest that this front office is going to throw an AAV over $20mil at ANY closer. Plus I see no reason why the Mets won't. IF I were Ross Atkins and I did want to throw more money than I'm comfortable with at a closer, it would be Devin Williams who will come cheaper and very likely be almost as good (from May 7 through the end of the season he was fine in '25). Other than those elite options, there's not THAT much bullpen talent available that's clearly better than what they have.
Consider the guys who are either under contract, too good to send down, or out of options and you already have quite a crowd. Hoffman, Garcia, Varland, Fisher, Rodriguez, Nance (out of options), Sandlin, Bastardo (can't be demoted Rule 5 guy) from the right side and Little, Fluharty, and Bruhil (OOO) from the left. And that's not counting the possibility of pushing Lauer or Bassitt (if he stayed) into a long relief role. Those seven bolded names seem right now to hold a pretty firm grasp on a spot and if you add, say, a guy that will push Fisher to the minors then that guy will need to be CLEARLY better (like Williams would be). Though, to be clear, if it were my job and I signed a closer I would pair that with trying to trade Rodriguez since he'd be pushed out of clear role. But I don't think they will treat this as a crying need. Particularly when good teams can re-evaluate in July and acquire bullpen help (and usually do).
That leaves the rotation. If we were closing in on Spring Training, your rotation now is Gausman, Bieber, Yesavage, Berrios, and Lauer. Most speculate they would like to add one more and my only condition there is that if you are going to bump Lauer to the long/swing role, you have to add someone CLEARLY better. He can understand if that happens but not an add just to be adding. Bassitt is adamant about wanting to return, which ...maybe? They're going to need to sort out how much "keeping the family together" weighs against "is there space here for an upgrade?"
Another bit of speculation I've seen is "maybe they can trade Berrios" but...nah, I don't think so. Unless he has a career year next year (which you can't possibly anticipate) he WILL pick up the remaining 2 years and $48 million on his contract next winter. Only a fool would pass on that staring into a potential long and harsh work stoppage. This is a reality every other team will be aware of. Are they going to want $66 million of downside risk on the chance that he'll have a career renaissance next year? I don't think there's any such team out there.
Back to the main subject though. For me, if I'm adding a free agent I'm going hard on Japanese starter Tatsuya Imai. He's notably younger than the other top-shelf free agents (28 next year) and if you're gonna need to offer 5-plus years that has a lot of value. Check this profile from MLBTR
In the absence of that, possibly a trade (Pablo Lopez or Joe Ryan leap to mind but there are others I'm sure) might serve better. This particular choice - to still add a theoretical top-tier SP even after Bieber opted in, or not to, will be a big tell this winter. Ross Atkins implied today they were looking at adding and specifically mentioned exploring trades.
Finally, about that stray thought I mentioned regarding the line-up, there is one other scenario I'd indulge: quietly explore whether it's possible to move on from Santander, maybe by eating the deferred money. Possibly there's a team that can plug him in at DH and let him bop. For the Jays this would open the door on maybe keeping Springer around a while longer if the regression isn't too steep, but it does something else pretty radical - it opens right field for a run at Kyle Tucker. If, indeed, they are channeling the Dodgers model, bringing back Bo AND signing Tucker (or alternately having lost Bo to a team that will let him play SS, "replacing" him with Tucker) would be a boss level move. As of right now, the projected roster adds up to (on my sheet) $210-215 million, which is around $70 million short of what the spent this year. Peel off Santander and you'd be over 85 before you exceed the 2025 payroll. Looking at the MLBTR top 50 Bo, and Imai, and Williams, AND Tucker add up to more or less $100 million.
Do I think they can have a lot of success mostly running it back - on paper, yes. But look at this:
Springer - DH
Barger - 3B
Vlad - 1B
Tucker - RF
Bo - 2B
Varsho - CF
Kirk - C
Lukes/Schneider - LF
Gimenez - SS
(or keep Santander if you can live with the glove, play him in left and hit him sixth and potentially be even stronger)
That's beast mode for years to come. You could approximate that for around $10 million less if you went with Bellinger too, I suppose. So I'm not saying I'm AGAINST some augmentation, I'm just saying there's no gaping wound to be addressed. I'm fascinated to see if they think this bunch still has World Series magic or they decide to kick out the jams and hulk-out.
No comments:
Post a Comment