The Monster List

This, really, was the purpose that prompted me to dust off the ol' site. I've always been a sucker for prospects, and I soak up all the info I can about the Jays farm from observers, broadcasters, the management team, scouts, and so forth - and integrate that with observations drawn from statistical outcomes (required disclaimer: scouting stats ain't scouting. Players are doing a lot of things to work on weaknesses and refine strengths that sometimes affect statistical outcomes. But at this distance sometimes it's all you have). Having done that, I like to share what I think in a somewhat public way and it occurs to me that you can only cram so much of that into a Twitter thread.

Serendipitously, several team officials have expressed some informative views lately, and in particular Mark Shapiro just said some things lately about the depth of the season which I'm going to quote as a jumping-off point for this post:



Say what you will about the strengths and weaknesses of the current management team, or the previous one, or the specific choices made - the objective reality is that the current system is very very deep, deeper than I've seen it since I've had the resources to pay attention. Now, is it deep in the kind of prospects that make the overall Top 100 (like, say the Braves putting six or seven on the list with another three or four considered)? Maybe not, there is a sense that the top four or five guys are on a separate tier. But just because your #12 prospect didn't get any votes for that list doesn't mean he's system filler either. In any given organization, even one as packed as the Padres current group, there's not going to be a top 100 guy at every position. The guys like Ryan Tepera matter too (I've been making super-long lists for my own benefit for years and I remember well when Tepera didn't look like even a top 50 guy in the Jays system). Guys like Danny Jansen matter (two years ago he was considered an interesting fringe guy with some potential but to consider him top 5 in the system would have been considered insane.

All that to say this. On my current super-list (I know that you can't REALLY "rank" players outside  the top 15 or so, but you can generalize in the sense, for example, that a guy who lands in the thirties is more promising than one that lands in the fifties) there are literally guys in the fifties that I would advise you not to sleep on. Guys in the forties that I look at and say "this guy has to be higher" but there's nowhere higher I can put him. I legitimately felt a little relief when Dwight Smith, Jr, Ryan Borucki, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr graduated from rookie status just because it game me room to move guys up.

Also, I'm constantly revising the list. While I know that a really good six weeks doesn't really change what a player is capable of, it can often show you things about their ability to get to those skills and talents (say, that a guy is back from a serious injury, or a pitcher has mastered that one pitch he needed to take the next step, or a hitter has made some real adjustment to get out of bad habits at the plate). That sometimes means that a player gets passed up by a guy with helium, or a new acquisition and then even though he figures things out, there's no room now to move back up.

When Anthony Alford joins the team the Blue Jays will have 13 rookie eligible guys (and four guys who exceeded the limit this year) in that locker room and more than half of the former, and all of the latter, look like reasonable safe bets to stick in the majors for some team. Beyond those who are/will be in Toronto this month,  there are at least a dozen more that seem like (barring injury) are very seriously on track to make it and another dozen that are in better than average position. For example, the best I can do by everyone's new fascination Jonathan Davis is #39. That is not me saying "There's not much to be interested in with Jon Davis." That's me saying "the depth is crazy."

Is Davis gonna be a big star? Nah. Best case he's maybe a sort of Raji Davis type career - but you need those guys too, not every prospect has to be Bo Bichette to help your team.

So anyway, when you drop off all the pending minor league free agents, and include the rookie-eligible layers on September call-up, there was at season's end a touch over 250 players assigned to the eight minor league squads (just over 100 on the full season rosters). Plus a handful of July 2 signings from this year not yet assigned anywhere (as is customary) and a few injured-all-year guys who were never assigned. I have a list in my spreadsheet of 200 names "ranked."The excess is mostly guys in the complex leagues that didn't stand out statistically enough to give me any kind of handle on them. A lot of those will be cut by next spring and a lot more won't make it onto any roster in the system next year. Not counting the complex league guys, the lowest ranked name on my list of a guy that I see and think "A lot of people will be jazzed about this guy next year, maybe the year after" is at #84! Does that mean I'm saying they have over 80 legit prospects? No. Many of those above him will never sniff the majors. But I'm saying there's a pool that big out of which a surprising number of contributors will arise.

The entirely home-grown team is a fiction that basically never happens in the majors, but I can envision a team in 2022, or so, made up of only guys who are still considered prospects, that is quite good.  Prospects will break your heart, mostly. But not always. You should be excited. I'll get to the list at some point, when I decide the best format for sharing it. In the mean time know this. There are 31 players not yet eligible for minor league free agency but who qualify for the upcoming Rule 5 draft in the system. Most of which are no threat to leave, but the top dozen or so might be considered by drafting teams. Against this backdrop is a Jays roster that will be completely full, even after free agents leave (they only have two remaining FA, and they have two players - Tulo and the one we get for Donaldson - that will immediately replace them).

So here's my ranking of the guys who most need to be protected for whom roster space will somehow have to be cleared. There are, by my count, 31 guys who played on a full season team last year that are eligible (there may be other international signings I'm unaware of but anyone who didn't at least reach high A isn't going anywhere):

1. Hector Perez - no way they let a recent acquisition so highly regarded be exposed
2. Patrick Murphy - took a huge leap in results and velo
3. Jordan Romano - had a couple of off stretches but when he's on he can dominate
4. Yennsy Diaz - might be better than Romano but further away (at Dunedin, as is Murphy)
5. Travis Bergen - very likely to be able to last all year in an MLB bullpen next year
6. Max Pentecost - did very hot finish to the season convinces teams they could carry him in reserve?
7. Jackson McClelland - big time velo, less polished than Bergen
8. Jon Harris - yet to live up to first round pedigree
9. Harold Ramirez - not a broad based skill set, but hit real well this year
Others they might be holding their breath on: Forrest Wall, Corey Copping, Jacob Waguespack,

Obviously some of these will be exposed. You pretty much have to cover the top five, Max is iffy (if he wasn't a catcher where the offensive expectations are lower he'd be safe) and those below him will be exposed.  So how do they produce 5/6 openings on a full roster?

First, there's the options. Smoak and Solarte have affordable 2019 options, and the former is a no-brainer. The latter almost certainly won't be a Blue Jay next year. They'll face a decision to decline the option but they will shop furiously before that to evaluate whether to pick it up, then trade him, or to decline it lest they be stuck. And if indeed he is traded he needs to go before the deadline to freeze the rosters for the purposes of the draft (which will be on or around November 20). For the purpose of this speculation I'm going to assume he's gone, and if there's a return the player coming back doesn't need roster protection.

Then there's trades - again to help us out these have to happen before the cutoff and they would have to net a roster space. There are several players who might be dealt, but it would be insanely impossible to predict how it plays out. But for an example of what I mean, one might take Kevin Pillar as an example. You could trade him for a player drafted two years ago who needs no protection, and game a space - or you could trade him and Ryan Tepera for one player, say a SP, who's on the 40 man and you'd net a space. Besides those two, they might shop Martin (would have to eat millions), Maile (deal at peak value), Travis (coming off an uninjured year),

Third is the potential of non-tenders and outrights (outrights being when you remove a player who still has options from the 40 man roster. Such can be claimed on waivers before he makes it to the farm). Assuming that there's not an impressive list of trades before the cutoff date, you'll see some. Here are some candidates:
*Mark Lieter, Jr. - probably the first guy out the door
*Jake Petricka - didn't do a horrible job, but middling 30-something relievers are an easy find in February as minor-league signings. Basically certain to be non-tendered.
*Danny Barnes - I love Danny, but he seems certain to be outrighted and to clear because no team would tie up a 40 man spot on a guy coming off the year he's having.
*Taylor Guerrieri - didn't pitch up to his pedigree, like Barnes he'd likely clear waivers.
*Dalton Pompey/Jon Davis/Dwight Smith, Jr. - Sadly Pompey, who I STILL believe in, is most likely here because he's out of options next spring which makes him less attractive as a waiver claim. But if any of these were outrighted they would be immediately at the top of the list of potential Rule 5 loses. If they think the depth is excessive they would surely prefer to trade from it if they could find a deal.

Looking in from the outside, for me it's a pretty easy choice to trim those first four pitchers and Solarte and  cover 1-5 on my list above. Then you have to decide whether you want to gamble with the rest, or try to manipulate another slot or two to be safe
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Okay, that's long enough for a freeby. I'll get back to you.

I Guess I Should Explain

Okay, so maybe this is a bit weird? Let me start with housekeeping then.

First, here's a link to the original "The Southpaw" blog. Blogger won't let me access it for reasons I'm too simple to sort out. Consider it, if you will, my archive. Secondly then, why are we back here (so to speak)? Well, frankly, I'm busier than ever writing for three other bogs (one of them not sports related) plus spending entirely too much time engaging for the things I believe in across various platforms and, on rare occasion, writing for my OTHER personal (non-sports) blog.

But for all that, there are Blue Jays related things that rattle around in my head that are not really suited for the brand of the other blogs I write for. This isn't something that bothers me, mind you, take for example prospect ranking. A very great many of us non-professional types who still follow things on the farm passionately have our own ideas about how the prospects should be ranked. I'm no fool, I know very clearly that there's no real reason for you to consider my preferred rankings as even in the same hemisphere with seasoned scouts and professionals like John Sickels or Kieth Law Jim Callis. But still, I make that list anyway and if you make one you kinda have an itch to say "hey y'all, what do you think of my list?" There's limited satisfaction in having a list only you see. But that aside, there's no logical reason why BP, for example, would want to publish MY stat-scouted list as if it has any credibility alongside those of people who do this for a living.

I'm sure you'll see, over time, what I mean. If something ends up here it's basically vanity, my desire to publish something that I know full well is not suited to the more professional sites that I contribute to.

So here's my introduction to The Southpaw 2.0. A vanity project with randomly added content. Maybe some of it will be interesting to you, and it doesn't mean there's any change in the things I write elsewhere.