The Elegant Solution for a Vlad Extension

I remarked (in the bad place) a couple of months ago that for all the beat reporters and pundits and "insiders" that are asked to speculate about what it would take to extend Vlad Guerreo Jr's contract through the rest of his career none of them ever reference what, to me, seems the most blindingly obvious comp.

I'm recycling and expanding upon that thought here because it still seems to me to be really obvious.

There's a player out there right now, playing the same position (now) who signed at the same age that Vlad will be this offseason and their production through their age 25 season is stunningly comparable. Take a look:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019-2024) vs. Bryce Harper (2013-2018): Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com 

It's Bryce Harper, y'all. It couldn't be more obvious.

I mean, I get bringing up Rafael Devers as a more recent comp but the match is not really as clean. It's instructive in some ways as a guide to what contract inflation would look like, but in terms of age and production and anticipated future value, you can't do better than Harper. And you certainly can't suggest he'd be in the stratosphere with Soto.

It's true that Harper was a right fielder at the time, and that adjustment matters some but that tends to get washed away by the inflation anyway. After all, Vlad's whole major league career has come after Harper's deal was signed. The nature of this game is that the contract structure always spirals upward.

So, what was that contract? 13 years, $330 million, 25.38 million AAV

The breakdown on Cott's is slightly different from what you see above, with a $10 million first year, nine years at $26 million, and the last three at $22 million. And with a $20 million signing bonus which BR amortized over the length of the deal.  But it adds up the same. For the purpose of this exercise I'll lay aside potential bonuses and such.

That contract is still the 8th highest ever signed in total value (pending Soto's) and only two of those higher than his are infielders. 

So here's my framework:
First, take Harper's deal and add a 14th year (for enough to raise the AAV to at least $26 million) - that takes your total to $364 million. That would make him the highest paid infielder in the majors by total contract value and 4th overall, for now. That's just ONE million behind Mookie Betts so let's add $2 million more and that would make him 3rd overall (until Soto). There would be five infielders with a higher AAV, all of them shortstops except former SS Manny Machado, and Deavers.

That would sign him through age 39. My inclination would be to limit the first two seasons (until Springer is off the books) to something like $24 million each, and to taper off the last four to something like $20 each (on average) knowing that $20 million in 2038 will be a lot less money than it is now. Make $10 mil a signing bonus, another $10 million deferred (or a secondary payment on the signing bonus in, say, five years) and what's left works out to $27 million a year through the eight years on average, that would presumably be the heart of his productive years. Maybe given the arb estimate you do $30 per for years 3-6 and $17 million in those last 4 years? But now I'm into the weeds. If you just had to in order to make the deal, give him an opt out halfway through but I'd rather not.

So he ends up making more than his best comp, holding the biggest deal ever for an infielder and the third highest AAV for an infielder who's not a SS. And the fourth overall (which will be 5th by opening day). I feel like that checks enough boxes to get it done.

I'm sure some will say "Too much!" and maybe if you were signing a guy away from another teams as the Phillies did Harper you'd have to really ponder. But right now and for the rest of his career if you get this done, Vlad *IS* the Toronto Blue Jays. You either go to the wall to keep him or you strip the whole thing down to the kids and start over.

Let's not.

Thoughts on What's Next

 First things first. Extend Vlad. That's the first obligation whether or not it's the first thing that happens. I've got a take on what that could and should look like (hint: Start with Bryce Harper as a baseline) but that's for another day. 

Second, if you CAN sign Soto, do it. If indeed he's got a unicorn budget line as was said of Ohtani last winter, then just top every other offer. It's worth remembering that baseball salary inflation means that $42 million next year isn't the same as $42 million 12 years hence. 

Also, Sasaki, but that's more out of team control (because virtually everyone can play in that market) and it's likely to not happen until January 15 anyway. Plus, this one will mostly be about offense.

One caveat: I'm not in the fan-camp of "they must do big things to prove they are trying." Apart from signing Vlad which is an absolute must, I actually wouldn't be outraged by a team that gave runway to Martinez and Barger and Wagner et al. However, I can't imagine that's what they end up doing given the pressure that last season's failure put on everything and everyone. Moves WILL happen.

So this is my list of moves I find most appealing. Some of them would be canceled out by signing Soto, but not all of them. And some would actually be MORE desirable as a compliment to adding Soto. A few will hinge on Vlad playing 3B, most won't.

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My favorite: Vlad to 3B (maybe), trade for Brent Rooker. Of course, the A's are saying they don't want to trade him and if they do, you'd have to outbid a lot of other interested teams, which I would think starts with Orelvis and includes someone like Bloss and a couple of other guys with actual upside. Moving Vlad relates to Horowitz. If they don't think Vlad can play 3B against almost every RHSP then the alternate path is trade Horowitz to address another need (probably a RP they really like?) and that would mean 3B still needs attention.

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How about thinking big? The Jays have $45 million still to pay out to George Springer for what seems likely to be below average production. And he plays a position where replacements are easier to find than at, say, 3B. Meanwhile, in a very rare event, the St. Lousi Cardinals are described as wanting to shed payroll and work towards a reset. Among their contracts is one Nolan Arenado who's still owed $74 million (10 of which is being paid by Colorado) over the next three seasons. So a straight swap would save the Cards $19 million total and the Jays could address their 3B hole by just adding $4.5 million in '25 and $15 million in '27. Of course THAT deal wouldn't happen, you'd have to give the Cards some additional cash and probably a prospect or two for sweetener. Say you kick in $5 mil in each of Springers 2 remaining years which would mean they'd save almost half of what they still own Arenado, And say Horowitz along with another guy in the 15-20 range on their prospect list. That's in the right neighborhood I'd think - assuming you could convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause. To be clear, he seems to be in an offensive decline too, and there's risk there of continued decline, but the Springer money is already spent and if it can be redirected to 3B instead of the OF that's likely still an improvement, and leaves enough money to go chase another bat maybe.

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Sign Willy Adames or Alex Bregman. In theory, if they have around $40 mil to spend apart from whatever they would pay Soto, they should be able to build up around him and Vlad. 3B is a need - unless you just want to let Clement or one of the kids (Barger/Martinez) have it and put them at the bottom of the order and do your ads elsewhere. The options to add from the outside here are THIN once you get beyond these two. Well, there's Kim but he might miss half the season which doesn't scream "problem solved." I don't love the idea of paying Bregman through his age 37 season. There's real "Springer 2.0" risk there. But I'm writing this under the assumption that the Jays FO will not just "trust the kids" if they have an opportunity.

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Teo. I mean, realistically he could be back with the Dodgers by the time you read this. But just describing ideas I like here, no one else among hitters (except Soto) addresses the bad vibes of the last couple of years like bringing him home. Of course, he has to be open to increasingly being a DH as the years pass.

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Here's something that takes a bit more explaining. I see folks talking about signing Joc Pederson AND Tyler O'Neil and platooning them, but we already have the Pederson side of that in Spencer Horowitz. I hesitate to call it a platoon since they're obviously not playing the same position, but if Horowitz DHed and hit 4th against every* RHSP and O'Neil played left and hit 4th against every lefty, that's a very fine cleanup hitter. O'Neil wouldn't sign to only play against lefties so he'd get at least that many at-bats (subject to health) vs RH, but just hit 7th or so. Horowitz can sit vs LH and make space for others to rotate through DH. In this scenario O'Neil would be a lot cheaper add than Teo or Santander, maybe half the cost, which is a selling point as long as you make good use of the savings. Most would conclude this wasn't enough additional offense though, and this idea is only appealing if you have some idea what the other (offensive) add might be. The trade market has surprisingly few difference-makers. In fact, in most cases, whether potential trades or signings once you get past the crowd who'll expect to make at least $20m AAV, I'd just as soon see what Martinez, Barger, Loperfido, Rhoden, Clase etc could do. That would be a hard sell unless they signed some really impressive pitching too.

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Try for Luis Robert. I'm not sure whether the White Sox want to move everyone who might have value but he'd be a solid gamble on bouncing back. A contract for $15 mil next year is manageable and if he does get back to his ceiling those two $20 million option years would be an easy decision. 

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For completeness, I'll note that Taylor Ward could do the role I described for O'Neil above, and I only hesitate to mention him because the Angels aren't acting like sellers. But he fits. 

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So here's a dream scenario for the offense this offseason, all things that are not in conflict with each other and are not budget busters (assuming the Unicorn exception for Soto):

Extend Vlad
Sign Soto 
Trade for Rooker - likely Martinez++
Trade Springer+Horowitz+?? for Arenado

Lineup:

Soto
Bo
Vlad
Rooker
Arenado
Barger (Loperfido, Rhoden - spring would tell)
Kirk
Varsho
Wagner

Wildly unlikely but not inherently impossible. The kind of bold strokes necessary when it's your last big swing before potentially getting fired.