First things first. Extend Vlad. That's the first obligation whether or not it's the first thing that happens. I've got a take on what that could and should look like (hint: Start with Bryce Harper as a baseline) but that's for another day.
Second, if you CAN sign Soto, do it. If indeed he's got a unicorn budget line as was said of Ohtani last winter, then just top every other offer. It's worth remembering that baseball salary inflation means that $42 million next year isn't the same as $42 million 12 years hence.
Also, Sasaki, but that's more out of team control (because virtually everyone can play in that market) and it's likely to not happen until January 15 anyway. Plus, this one will mostly be about offense.
One caveat: I'm not in the fan-camp of "they must do big things to prove they are trying." Apart from signing Vlad which is an absolute must, I actually wouldn't be outraged by a team that gave runway to Martinez and Barger and Wagner et al. However, I can't imagine that's what they end up doing given the pressure that last season's failure put on everything and everyone. Moves WILL happen.
So this is my list of moves I find most appealing. Some of them would be canceled out by signing Soto, but not all of them. And some would actually be MORE desirable as a compliment to adding Soto. A few will hinge on Vlad playing 3B, most won't.
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My favorite: Vlad to 3B (maybe), trade for Brent Rooker. Of course, the A's are saying they don't want to trade him and if they do, you'd have to outbid a lot of other interested teams, which I would think starts with Orelvis and includes someone like Bloss and a couple of other guys with actual upside. Moving Vlad relates to Horowitz. If they don't think Vlad can play 3B against almost every RHSP then the alternate path is trade Horowitz to address another need (probably a RP they really like?) and that would mean 3B still needs attention.
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How about thinking big? The Jays have $45 million still to pay out to George Springer for what seems likely to be below average production. And he plays a position where replacements are easier to find than at, say, 3B. Meanwhile, in a very rare event, the St. Lousi Cardinals are described as wanting to shed payroll and work towards a reset. Among their contracts is one Nolan Arenado who's still owed $74 million (10 of which is being paid by Colorado) over the next three seasons. So a straight swap would save the Cards $19 million total and the Jays could address their 3B hole by just adding $4.5 million in '25 and $15 million in '27. Of course THAT deal wouldn't happen, you'd have to give the Cards some additional cash and probably a prospect or two for sweetener. Say you kick in $5 mil in each of Springers 2 remaining years which would mean they'd save almost half of what they still own Arenado, And say Horowitz along with another guy in the 15-20 range on their prospect list. That's in the right neighborhood I'd think - assuming you could convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause. To be clear, he seems to be in an offensive decline too, and there's risk there of continued decline, but the Springer money is already spent and if it can be redirected to 3B instead of the OF that's likely still an improvement, and leaves enough money to go chase another bat maybe.
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Sign Willy Adames or Alex Bregman. In theory, if they have around $40 mil to spend apart from whatever they would pay Soto, they should be able to build up around him and Vlad. 3B is a need - unless you just want to let Clement or one of the kids (Barger/Martinez) have it and put them at the bottom of the order and do your ads elsewhere. The options to add from the outside here are THIN once you get beyond these two. Well, there's Kim but he might miss half the season which doesn't scream "problem solved." I don't love the idea of paying Bregman through his age 37 season. There's real "Springer 2.0" risk there. But I'm writing this under the assumption that the Jays FO will not just "trust the kids" if they have an opportunity.
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Teo. I mean, realistically he could be back with the Dodgers by the time you read this. But just describing ideas I like here, no one else among hitters (except Soto) addresses the bad vibes of the last couple of years like bringing him home. Of course, he has to be open to increasingly being a DH as the years pass.
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Here's something that takes a bit more explaining. I see folks talking about signing Joc Pederson AND Tyler O'Neil and platooning them, but we already have the Pederson side of that in Spencer Horowitz. I hesitate to call it a platoon since they're obviously not playing the same position, but if Horowitz DHed and hit 4th against every* RHSP and O'Neil played left and hit 4th against every lefty, that's a very fine cleanup hitter. O'Neil wouldn't sign to only play against lefties so he'd get at least that many at-bats (subject to health) vs RH, but just hit 7th or so. Horowitz can sit vs LH and make space for others to rotate through DH. In this scenario O'Neil would be a lot cheaper add than Teo or Santander, maybe half the cost, which is a selling point as long as you make good use of the savings. Most would conclude this wasn't enough additional offense though, and this idea is only appealing if you have some idea what the other (offensive) add might be. The trade market has surprisingly few difference-makers. In fact, in most cases, whether potential trades or signings once you get past the crowd who'll expect to make at least $20m AAV, I'd just as soon see what Martinez, Barger, Loperfido, Rhoden, Clase etc could do. That would be a hard sell unless they signed some really impressive pitching too.
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Try for Luis Robert. I'm not sure whether the White Sox want to move everyone who might have value but he'd be a solid gamble on bouncing back. A contract for $15 mil next year is manageable and if he does get back to his ceiling those two $20 million option years would be an easy decision.
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For completeness, I'll note that Taylor Ward could do the role I described for O'Neil above, and I only hesitate to mention him because the Angels aren't acting like sellers. But he fits.
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So here's a dream scenario for the offense this offseason, all things that are not in conflict with each other and are not budget busters (assuming the Unicorn exception for Soto):
Extend Vlad
Sign Soto
Trade for Rooker - likely Martinez++
Trade Springer+Horowitz+?? for Arenado
Lineup:
Soto
Bo
Vlad
Rooker
Arenado
Barger (Loperfido, Rhoden - spring would tell)
Kirk
Varsho
Wagner
Wildly unlikely but not inherently impossible. The kind of bold strokes necessary when it's your last big swing before potentially getting fired.
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