The Market

 

Much speculation abounds and will increase about the available options who would seem to be potentially available as we move towards the end of the month. This is my attempt at a first pass thought experiment regarding how availability lines up with the teams' needs. The general agreement seems to be that everyone in contention will be looking for the best reliever they can land, that the Jays could really use the best SP they can get (given uncertainty about Scherzer and now questions about Gausman they have to think ahead to the playoff rotation) and possibly a hitter which Ross just described as a right handed hitter which may be extrapolated to "is very good against lefties." Given that the last of these is probably the most shallow pool, when considering guys who match up with the teems needs. 

Some commentators are still talking about adding a significant full time player. To an extent this is related to how Santander recovers but even if you're still not seeing progress there what you want might evolve but it doesn't mean there's a similar guy to be had. From my point of view, if you look only at under .500 teams (not all of whom currently consider themselves sellers) and eliminate young and very controllable hitters who such teams would be disinclined to trade, and then filter it for guys who can play the outfield and has good splits vs LHP and the market is THIN. On the pitching side you have a lot broader range of targets.

For example, folks mention Ramon Laureano and his complete outlier career year - but he's a beast vs RHP and entirely ordinary vs lefties. This is not intended to be an exhaustive inventory of available players, for that see the article today from BNS. Rather, it's just my attempt to look at best match options. Starting with hitters, and under these filters I described above, the most appealing target might be

Rob Refsnyder.

Yes, THAT Rob Refsnyder. The Red Sox don't consider themselves out of it, and might not four weeks from now, but if they sell he'd be among the most obvious moves they could make, and yet not all that expensive. He has a .942 OPS against LHP, with four homers and four doubles in 60 AB. He was almost identically good last year. and it was .828 in 2023 so you're not seizing on some small-sample outlier. Another possibility is Athletics OF/3B Miguel Andujar. The samples are smaller and more skewed towards getting on base than pop, but in terms of prospect cost he'd be very affordable. If you are still dreaming on a higher profile guy, there's also Luis Robert, Jr. but that's a ton of money to pay for the weak side of a platoon.

The relief pitcher thing is MUCH harder to project as you can typically expect around a dozen guys to move most years. but one of the first places to look is Baltimore. RH Siranthony Dominguez and LH Gregory Soto are both pending free agents, and have 11.8 and 10.9 K/9 respectively, but both walk more than is ideal. The guy you'd really like to have is Bryan Baker who's as good at the former while being just as good on the latter but with three more years of control, there's not a great likelihood you could get him. The Twins, should they concede the playoff race, have LH Danny Coulumbe  (a guy I had hoped the Jays would sign in the offseason) whose sporting an excellent 0.79 ERA  (and a 1.77 FIP) and is just as good vs hitters of either hand. If you're thinking more high profile, and want to pay the price, David Bednar is having a nice bounce back year in Pittsburgh. He'd be much more costly but as good an upgrade for the 'pen as they're likely to find, plus he has another year f control. The downside is that he's so good they won't be the only team making an offer and they might well be outbid.  

As mentioned, when you're shopping for SP while thinking ahead to the playoffs you should be aiming high, but also given there various contract situations it would also be a plus to get someone not on an expiring contract. Getting those two considerations addressed in a single guy however is really difficult. While I'm speaking of Pittsburgh, there's Mitch Keller. He's having a good year, signed for three more season at an affordable cost and roughly a Chris Bassitt level guy who could slot into the middle of your rotation in upcoming years. But he's not the guy you think of as a Game One starter either. You could dream on talking them out of Paul Skenes but I can't imagine how you wouldn't be outbid for him if they did trade him. They'll also trade Andrew Heaney but you have to aim higher than that. 

Career wise, the most accomplished SP available is Sandy Alcantara. Coming off of loosing all of '24 to elbow surgery, he started the year off very badly. Through the end of May his ERA was 8.47 with a FIP of 5.38, then he seemed to turn it around some. In his first four June starts his ERA was 2.74 until he got knocked around last Saturday. How he does over the rest of the month (up to five more turns) will control his appeal to teams looking for answers. He's under control for two more seasons and if he gets back to his old self, the buying team should be prepared to pay up. Also getting some discussion around the Marlins is Edward Cabrera and, frankly, it's fair to be skeptical if that's just wishcasting. Not only is he having a fine year but this winter will be his first arbitration eligible winter, which means he comes with three years control and that might be enough to make him almost as valuable as Alcantara. 

Next we check the Royals who might have once considered themselves potentially in it, but are now 7 games under .500 and 5.5 out of the wildcard race. A lot can change in a month but it would have to in order to make them buyers. As sellers, they have two attractive options for buyers. Seth Lugo is on an expiring contract (he has a $15 million player option which he'll almost certainly decline because...) he has a 2.74 ERA and its 3.14 over the three seasons since he became a full time SP. He was a Cy Young runner-up last year. The Royals would be right to say "pay up" and while Lugo doesn't have the long "big game" track record of a potential ace, you'd want him in a playoff series. Rotation mate Michael Wacha also has appeal. Wacha, 33, has a 3.62 ERA and hasn't posted a season over 4.00 since 2021. Collectively over the seasons since its 3.36 which is very consistent. You could think of him as in the Jose Berrios mode.  Plus he's under contract for two more seasons and a third year option that collectively pay him up to $46 million which is both quite economical but also - makes him harder to acquire than Lugo because the Royals don't plan to wait that long to be competitive. 

Which brings us to Arizona. They're just one game under .500 and 3.5 out of the wild card (and likewise behind the Giants and Padres but they likely don't entertain illusions of catching the Dodgers). So they might well buy rather than sell and thus I wouldn't normally have included them here but people KEEP pointing at Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen. Both are on expiring contracts, and Kelly is having the superior season while Gallen is seven years younger and has a much longer and arguably better track record before this season. But Gallen has a 6.97 ERA over the last nine starts before the most recent one (when he pitched well). So even if the D'Backs decide to sell, opposing GMs would have to ask whether the longtime track record (he came into the year with a 3.29 ERA over 143 starts) reflects what you are buying, or the guy who's floundering for the first time in his career. Scary. As for Kelly, 36, he has a more convoluted story (he spent four years in South Korea before signing with the D'Backs in 2019 for his age 30 season. But he has a 3.55 ERA and sits at 3.29 for his career. More, it's 2.25 in four post-season starts (Gallen's is 4.54 in 6 starts). The attention to their potential availability is warranted, particularly Kelly (Gallen feels more like the guy you settle for if you get beat out on the rest of these guys) but you won't know until the afternoon of Deadline Day if they're choosing to buy or sell.

Edit to add: I neglected to include what may be the most intriguing mystery box among potentially available pitchers: Michael Soroka. I have no inside information about whether they negotiated with him in the off-season, but he was known to prefer signing with a team that would let him start but a team that trades for him has made no such commitment. And yet, he CAN do both which is of value. And while his ERA is not close to what you want, the rest of his stats suggest he's much better than that. But more specifically, he splits much better vs. RHP and his stats for the first three inning are considerably better than from the fourth on. He was a beast out of the ;pen for the White Sox in '24 and it's not irrational to see in him a potentially dominant mid-late inning reliever again.

Three or four of these guys at least will likely move. There's a lot more than three or four contenders who will be looking to add a starter. That means the return will sting, more so if you get years of control in the deal. But it would be a helluva gamble to make no move for a SP at all. If I/they knew for certain Alek Manoah would come back "epic" and be his best self or better, maybe I'd try to play it out until he arrives but we just DON'T know, nor can we know about Scherzer or Gausman. If that means you run a six-man rotation down the stretch, that's fine too. Maybe later I'll speculate about the kind of players that would be available but initially, you'd assume that Yesavage, Nimmala, Rojas, and maybe King would be held most tightly. But if you can get the sellers interested in Juran Watts-Brown or Khal Stephens at the front of your package, you're in a good spot.