So. As it turns out I've been misleading myself the whole off-season. As Joshua Howsam pointed out to me, my conviction that the Jays would not go past CBT+40 because of the draft penalty was misplaced. The reason for that is that the CBT figure is calculated AFTER the season (as witnessed by the Jays having gotten under the line for 2024 with midseason trades) therefore any draft penalty would happen in 2026, not this year when they have a high pick. This realization re-sets a lot of the speculation I'd been voicing.
Even though it's not yet reflected on Roster Resource because the fine specifics have not yet been published, the current reporting is that the Santander deal defers over $30 million and results in an AAV (for the CBT) of something like $14 million. So reducing the RR total by $4.5 million puts them at a tick over $258 million. The CBA increases the tax penalty at +20, +40, etc over the first threshold of 241 million. So literally any other acquisition puts them over the 2nd tier threshold and some of the speculated pursuits which remain would likely put them over the third tier threshold.
Also, in a somewhat surprising revelation, Shi Davidi reports (presumably based on a team source) that since Myles Straw isn't on the 40 man roster, his bloated contract doesn't count towards the CBT total. Which means it would take a pretty extreme circumstance for him to ever play a game for the Blue Jays.
Still, the implications of this week's reporting changes what I'd assumed about future spending. I'm still skeptical about Alonso and I'm basically just going to forget about Bregman, however the SP discussion gets a lot more interesting. Ben Nicholson-Smith is under the impression that Max Scherzer is their primary target for the rotation, which is... fine...I guess... in that you don't have to go longer term and maybe you get him for a contract sorta like what Verlander got, with a high risk of health problems. But if that doesn't work out, the two names that are still high on the FA lists are Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. For me, between the two, I'd rather chase Flaherty.
Pivetta is, basically, a slightly above average guy (on results, there are still those who believe there's upside but he's 32) who's been pretty consistent since the short season. Flaherty MIGHT have medical questions, but he's three years younger and when he's on has gotten better results. If you have to invest 3-4 years in one of them, I'd pay the extra to get Flaherty if his medicals are okay. Of course, they're running out of opportunities for the group of young players if they add another hitter, so it's impossible to rule out a trade. If you can get Luis Castillo, for example, you consider it although Ross has been averse to trading young guys or prospects (for good reason).
So back to the lineup. If you look at current in-house roster, the lineup looks kinda like this:
1.
2. Bichette
3.Guerrero
4. Santander
5.
6. Kirk
7.Varsho
8. Springer
9. Gimenez
There's not an ideal lead-off hitter on the team, and 3B is at this point a contest among young players. It seems like third is Barger v. Martinez v. Wagner and whoever wins that would fill 3B and the other outfielder/DH would involve those same guys in some sense with Loperfido and Schneider also options. If you had, for example, Wagner at 3B and Martinez to some degree as a DH, then you can plug them into (respectively) those two lineup spots I left open above. This is obviously the "if they don't sign (or trade for) anyone else" scenario.
But they seem to be set on more additions based on reporting and Atkin's comments at the presser. If they add another hitter (speculation to follow) then suddenly you're in a position in which Barger, Martinez, Wagner, Loperfido, Schneider, Lukes (not a kid but deserves some opportunity) and eventually Clase and Roden are all in the mix for limited bench work and MAYBE one regular spot open in the lineup. That's not the best use of resources. You'd tend to think "well, makes a couple of trades" but who can predict such things.
As for free agent acquisitions, you have maybe four options. Pete Alonso, whom everyone but me seems to think would be a great idea. I'm only interested here if it's very short and tempts him to opt out after this season and he's willing to get the lion's share of starts at DH. Alex Bregman who actually does fit the roster better than Alonso, if you could get him to structure a deal kinda like Santander's that's kinda front-loaded and with an opt-out it would be a win-win in that he'd lose the burden of the QO and get back in the market if he wants, or he's solved your 3B situation for the next five years. Yet there's almost no buzz connecting him to Toronto. Jurickson Profar has been mentioned, and if you're getting a guy who's similar to 2024 that would be great, and cheaper than the previously mentioned - but he's never been that guy before and the even-numbered years thing is scary. That said, if you sign him for 10 or 12 million and he flops, there's several younger guys who'd get a newfound opportunity to surpass him. Finally there's infielder Ha-Seoung Kim, who doesn't have the power profile but, like Profar, would make sense for the leadoff spot. Like Profar you can probably sign him for something around half of what Alonso or Bregman will cost.
So to game it out a bit: Sign Bregman and you can forget about any of the kids being a good 3B, Martinez might blossom as a DH, as might Barger as an OF/DH (don't sleep on Barger, his production and OBP in the minors deserves respect) and Wagner is...a better Biggio? Assuming they aren't involved in a trade of course; Sign Kim and he'd be your 3B (and more insurance against Bo leaving) with the same implications I just described for the youth; Sign Alonso and you potentially crowd DH with veterans including Guerrero, Springer, and Santander but you make it less likely any young player gets some run in the outfield (barring the benching of Springer which I'm for but they won't) and the only room for the young players is at 3B; sign Profar and he, Santander, and Springer can be rotated through DH and 3B is in play in this scenario as well.
Payroll? if they are, as it seems, sitting at roughly 258 now, adding Scherzer gets you to maybe 275 and either Alonso or Bregman is in the ballpark of a $300 million total. Add Flaherty/Pivetta instead and that's maybe $280 million and so you shift to Profar or Kim and still have room to sign Danny Coulombe (yes, I still have a mild fixation on him) and likewise end up at roughly $300 million.
Who the heck really knows? Yet again, there's also the non-zero possibility of trades. Gamble on Luis Robert, Jr bouncing back? I would if the White Sox would deal him. A known good add in Castillo at considerable cost in players going the other way? Take on a risk by bringing back Steven Matz (the Cards would love to shed his contract and thus the return should be minimal)? That last is a thing you only do after all the FA guys you want come off the market though.
My main conclusion is that I can't possibly have a conclusion. Feels like we'll have a lot of news to digest over the next 7-8 weeks. But it feels like Flaherty/Profar/Coulombe fits what they want to do.
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