The prevailing theory is that the Blue Jays are more or less forced to add a power hitting bat this off-season (while I ask out loud "what if that offense could come from Orelvis Martinez?" and maintain my opinion that I don't think they actually do have no choice but to make a big signing) and if that's true, we seem to be down to three free agent options. There are a couple of other quality hitters but if we're controlling for power specifically, there are three: Pete Alonso, Anthoney Santander, and Alex Bregman.
Yes, I think it's a correct assessment that they really should get Vlad signed first to appeal to these guys and I further stand by my previous writing that $400 million is NOT an unreasonable neighborhood to play in. We already know the AAV has to be in the 30's - given his new arb-avoiding contract is for $28.5mm - so it seems like the main discussion comes down to years. For example, 33.33 AAV for 12 years is 400 and there's no reason to not do that. But I digress.
So, in the interest of having something to write about, it's worth a little effort to look at how the compare both in the abstract and as a fit the team's openings and needs. It's well established that, barring some significant surprise (like eating the rest of Springer's deal and releasing him, or trading Vlad) there are three openings to add offense - Left Field, Third Base, and Designated Hitter. These happen to align, more or less, with the three hitters in question. So the first order of business is to see whether there's a standout argument for any of them as a clearly better hitter than the others.
Here are some numbers from Baseball Reference. These are specifically drawn from the last three years for each.
Alonso: 131 OPS+, .826 OPS, 41 HR/162, 10.1 oWAR
Bregman: 124 OPS+, .798 OPS, 26 HR/162, 12.9 oWAR
Santander: 125 OPS+, .795 OPS, 37 HR/a62, 9.4 oWAR
From Fangraphs:
Alonso: 128 wRC+, .350 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 22.1 K%, 8.7 WAR
Bregman: 127 wRC+, .347 wOBA, 11.1 BB%, 12.4 K%, 14 WAR
Santander: 124 wRC+, .340 wOBA, 8.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 8.3 WAR
Obviously Bregman is getting a significant boost in fWAR from his defense which I don't know how to filter out except to cite their offense numbers which go 60.1 for Alonso, 52.6 for Bregman and 48.5 for Santander. Also the progression year-to-year for Santander is essentially the inverse of Alonso's.
Considering both sets, Alonso gets a big boost from what was a much better year in '22 than what he's done since, and Santander gets a similar inflation from his career year in '24. So the trends are deserving of attention, taken in the aggregate there's not a real separator here except that Bregman has a more well-rounded profile with a better BB% and OBP (albeit both dropped off last year) while the others are more pure power bats. but the net effect on the team, offensively, is very similar.
Is there then, a separator that goes beyond the home run output?
Pete Alonso - He's 29, and durable, which are points in his favor. On the other hand, he had an astonishing rookie year and has been more-good-than-great since. He ramped up again in 2022 to a 146 OPS+ but in each of the two years since his OPS+ was slightly below what they got from Horwitz last year (his fWAR was 2.1 compared to 1.9 for Horwitz). If you say "screw it, all I'm interested in is balls over the fence" then a guy who's surpassed 40 three times in six years is on your radar.
But he doesn't play a position of need, and he's not very good at it, yet it seems like he'd be resistant to signing to be the primary DH (and they dare not antagonize Vlad by asking him to) and he thinks he can get six years which has "Springer 2.0" written all over it.
Alex Bregman - by the "over the fence" metric, he's on a lower level. His one outlier power year was in 2019. His slugging % since that year is 24 points below the career numbers for Santander and far below Alonso (even without Alonso's rookie year he's over 50 points ahead). However, Bregman's career wRC+ is actually a bit higher than Alonso's (135 to 131) and well ahead of Santander's (113). This derives from his better plate discipline both in terms of limiting strikeout and a noticeably better OBP.
Here's the hidden factor when focusing on power: Bregman was said to have meddled with his swing in the offseason and took several weeks after Opening Day before he worked out the problem. From May 9 through the end of the season (112 games) his OPS was .838, his slugging % was over .500 for the first time since 2019, and he homered at a pace that would have totaled 36 over a full season. If you think THAT is the bat you are buying, you feel a lot better about signing him. Plus, he's the only one of these candidates with plus defense and he fits more cleanly into the team's needs. The downside is that he's still expecting at least six years and the most expensive contract of the three.
Anthony Santander - this comes down to how much you weigh his platform year against his prior career. Whether you take the two seasons immediately prior, or four, you get a guy who's more-good-than-great across the board. He was a 115 fWAR over that span (129 in '24) and played 3 times as many games while hitting twice as many homers. There's a real risk of paying for peak value here and never getting that value in your lineup. As a DH primarily, he's useful but the Jays have reportedly offered four years and even that is too long IMO. He's almost certain to get overpaid (all these guys could arguably get more than they will end up providing).
Different people will come to different conclusions. The most reliable power is Alonso but a shorter contract to mostly DH (like Rys Hopkins signed last year) isn't likely to land him and more than that risks real downside. Santander is also best employed as a DH, but do you want him for four years if he's more of a 25-30 homer guy than 40+ (which seems likely)? He'd be an improvement but enough? Bregman brings more balanced and consistent offense, with a potential power upside depending on how you read last season, and quality defense at a position of need, while costing more in AAV and term. He has downside risk in the out years similar to what the Cardinals are now dealing with concerning Nolan Arenado (but won't have a contract THAT big).
Between the three, I still come down on the side of Bregman. Both of the others seem to me to have more downside risk in the more immediate term (Bregman's would be more on the back half of the deal) and without bringing defensive value could be more of a burden.
To be fair, I should note one more possibility. Jurickson Profar had a wRC+ last season higher than Santander ever had, better than 4 of 6 Alonso seasons, and better than anything Bregman has had since 2019. However, he's been wildly inconsistent alternating good years and awful years for seven straight seasons.
In 2024 he had 4.3 fWAR, again, better than any season from Santander or Alonso except the latter's rookie year and similar to Bregman's number in each of the last three years. He's not the same home run thread but his slugging was the equal of Alonso's in '24, better than Bregman's (on the whole season, but not in the smaller sample) and almost as high as Santander's. Even though he terrifies me (the alternating years thing) you can probably sign him for 2 years at an AAV around half of what the Big 3 are looking for. He's also a defensive liability but if you're a believer in whatever changes he made to get last year's outcome, and you don't/can't sign any of them, you wouldn't spit on this play as a mostly-DH. Still, in terms of public/pundit perception, there's no way to frame it as "we added some power to help out Vladdy." Honestly, more like a potential leadoff hitter.
Indeed, you could afford Bregman and Profar for around $38-40mm in combined AAV (I say Bregman because the other three are similar defensive liabilities). Depending on how much you want to reserve for any further pitching additions.
Who knows how long this rumination will last before it's obsolete? This is the sort of stuff you read when the news cycle is intolerably slow.
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