Position by Position

 

With the off-season now officially half over, and myself utterly bored with what Blue Jays may or may not be doing and the relentless tabloid style all-caps headlines describing a report or a pod that actually contains nothing new, it falls to me to revise and recycle my useless opinions. 

The least I can do then is give it a slightly different form and frame. With that intent, I'll go position by position even if it's largely stating the obvious.

Catcher - nothing to say here, they will probably look at adding someone who's a marginal upgrade on Tyler Heinemann (they'd hope) to back up Kirk. That said, most of the available options don't project to be an upgrade.

First Base - the only loose talk here is the sometimes mentioned idea of Vlad playing some 3B but I feel like if they had that as a bit of incentive for him to sign an extension we'd hear more about it. They might yet pull that rabbit out of their caps but...I doubt it. I don't think that the "some" stuff works anymore though. If you want to add someone at 1b (Alonso?) then Vlad is your regular 3B. Signs are they aren't leaning that way.

Second Base - Settled. Gimenez. In the non-zero event that they move on from Bo this winter, there's still half a dozen in-house players who've played some 2B. Up to and including Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez.

Shortstop - Bo. If he were shockingly traded likely Gimenez but if they really wanted him to stay at 2B both Leo Jimenez and Josh Kasavich are described as excellent defenders. Plus there's Clement. Some speculate about signing Ha-Seong Kim which wouldn't be irrational if someone met your price on Bo...which they won't. 

Third Base - There are only five remaining free agent position players that Fangraphs projects to reach 2.0 WAR and the best by a significant margin is Alex Bregman. His field of options is narrowing. The only teams with both the positional need and the resources to discuss his asking price are the Yankees and Blue Jays yet, oddly, neither of them seem to be heavily linked to him in the rumor mill. If you're going to risk a Springer-type outcome on a nine-figure contract you'll likely get a better return here than on an outfielder who's a liability in the field already. Absent such a signing you would expect a contest between Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez with Ernie Clement as a safety net of sorts. As I've commented from time to time, I'm not afraid of the idea of either or both of the youngsters getting some run.

Right field - Springer seem inevitable. For me, I'd at minimum make him have to earn it. Roden, Loperfido, Barger (if not the presumptive 3B), and Clase should all go to Spring Training with the opportunity to unseat him, in my opinion. But I'm skeptical. My guess is they'll let him fail some more first. Hopefully not leading off anymore. 

Center field - Dalton Varsho, of course, when he's healthy. There's a minor uncertainty about who gets run as his most regular replacement until then. Emotionally I feel like Nathan Lukes has paid his dues and deserves a chance to take this time to prove he can do it in the majors. But on paper you can argue pretty vigorously for Joey Loperfido:

and, a half step behind him, Jonatan Clase:

In point of fact, this provokes in me a rant that's not so much a tangent as one might think. But let me hold it for half a sec.

Left Field - Those five players I mentioned earlier include three I have already alluded to, along with Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar. I've been more skeptical on both, than most. The former seems like the Springer deal without the defensive value. If you have to give him five years I'm near certain you'll be underwater on a mediocre DH in the last two, maybe three. I'd find a three-year contract tolerable - but he won't. Profar terrifies me. If they wanted to gamble something like $20 mil for 2 years...okay, fine I guess. Not sure that will be his best offer. There's also a dark horse possibility of a trade, but the only really interesting option there is Luis Robert, Jr. 

But about that rant: this front office presents itself as mostly immune to the pressures of public opinion, their valuation is their valuation. And yet, based on their minor league production, they have three entirely solid options to upgrade their OF from within in Loperfido, Roden, and Clase, as well as two fine candidates to play 3B. Yes, there's pretty intense pressure to make magic happen this year until/unless at least Vlad (you understand the impossibility of extending Bo under the circumstances) is settled but the public image is that they don't operate that way. If this is true, it would be out of character to spend bad money on an outfielder when you have actual young and cheap talent on the cusp, just because you don't want to appear cheap. If they mid dude (at best) like Verdugo just so they can give the appearance of "do something" I will riot. 

If this is your last year to prove yourself, why not prove that you have AGAIN (as you did when you acquired Teo) brought in a young player with upside to fill the holes. Indeed, your whole initial claim was that you could do just that. I know that the terminally online Jays fanbase can be toxic but I, for one, would look at an opening day line-up with Loperfido in left and Roden in right along with Barger at 3B and Martinez as the DH and smile. Not because they saved money but because I'd 100 times rather root for any of those as some retread like Profar.

Starting pitcher - with Burnes off the table, there's no "add an ace" option left. The two best guys among the well-paid class are Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Both have blemishes. The former has downside risk based on his history and the latter would be trying to buy upside that usually doesn't appear at his age. Plus Pivetta has a QO. I'm not harshly opposed to either but not enthused either. 

Beyond that you might as well try to land a value play like Spencer Turnbull or Michael Lorenzen, or push for a trade for Erik Fedde (my latest hoppy horse) if you are determined to add a major league SP of some sort.

Bullpen - Here's the gap that's most difficult to navigate between what we think and what they think. If you presume, as I do, that there's a bit over $50 million that they COULD spend without paying too high a penalty, and that Bregman would take up around half of that, then how to best spend the other 25ish? Most of us would suggest that you sign a budget SP (if you really want one) like Turnbull and invest in the bullpen. But investing in expensive relievers has never been the way of this FO. So I'll acknowledge the technical possibility of adding Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman or Carlos Estevez... I'll also say that aspiring to a year of Kirby Yates and landing AJ Minter would be all we should aspire to as fans. Which would be helpful, to be sure.

So, in summation, me personally I'd go with the youth movement on the position player crew and if I really wanted to make a big move it would be Bregman. Among pitchers, if you added Trunbull as your 5th starter and put Rodriguez in the pen, then adding Yates and Minter would fill it out - in fact it would make you want to see if you could get something interesting for Chad Green. I'm not in the crowd that will be pissy that they didn't spend just to be spending.