The punditry about the Blue Jays is making me a little crazy, most particularly in terms of the budget, and some of it doesn't make sense, in my opinion.
So let's lay out some parameters. According to Fangraphs Roster Resource the Jays CBT number as of this writing is $228,470,427. Take that, and the first tax threshold this year $241 million) and that leaves about $12 million. I don't think that anyone thinks that the Jays are going to constrain themselves to staying under that threshold. There's another penalty surcharge at threshold+20, and still another at T+40 and that one is the important one I'm guessing. See the highlighted bit below:
The point here is that I don't think they much care about the additional surcharge on going more than $20 million over the first threshold. As an example, let's say they spend $271 million and are thus 10 million into the second tier - that will cost them a $1.2 million surcharge on top of the original tax figure which is $20% on all spending over the 241 threshold. So on 30 million over that would be 6 million plus the 1.2 million surcharge. Thats less than Yimi Garcia is going to get paid in 2025. This isn't going to impede them making a deal they want. However, at T+40 there's a MUCH more significant penalty. Now it's $42.5% on any overage dollars but more importantly, IMO, your first draft pick next year is dropped 10 spots. So I'm going on the assumption that they will not reach $280 million. Another factor here is Mark Shapiro's comment that the next payroll shouldn't be expected to move much in either direction (which was around $250 million last April.
And yet obviously Soto would have blown that up so I think that was more an evasion of a specific answer than an actual plan. So, if you're treating the real high point as 280, then your spending money is up to but no more than $52 million. So the cold reality is that if they did in fact sign Corbin Burnes, there's no more than $20mm available for every other need which is another way of saying that you're very limited in augmenting the offense.
Before I go further let me be clear: if this teams opening day roster had Alan Roden starting in the OF and Orelvis Martinez as your primary 3B or DH I wouldn't mourn. I'm always borderline irrational in my confidence in the best prospects even if the system lacks depth (we're told) but I'm all for giving the kids room to shine. But the premise of all my speculation so far is that they don't seem likely to take that chance.
So...up to $52 million more. Barring trades (it seems to me that there's not a lot of obvious options for adding via trade) how do you make this offense better with outside editions? Here's my Plan A:
Teoscar Hernandez - 3/69 or 4/80
As I've commented before, there's no one left on the market that's a better fit because he's one of the three best hitters left, you don't need to add a lot of risky out-years, and no one else brings they "vibes" that this team and FO desperately need. Not only do the fans love him but so does Vlad and anything you can do to make Vlad more willing to sign is very much a tie-breaker if you need one.
Joc Pederson - 1/13(ish?)
You may have noticed I never mentioned this guy before Horwitz was traded because the best skill of each was basically the same. We already had a potential DH vs. RHP who might well still have upside. But they don't have that guy anymore. Pederson as the strong side of a DH platoon would potentially be a big boost to the offense even if he doesn't replicate his 2024 line. Plug Orelvis in as the other half of the platoon (and hopefully play him at 3B whenever Pederson is in the game) and this will bring a lot of production to the line-up. There remains the difficult question of who leads off but you could line it up like this:
Bo
Vlad
Teo
DH platoon
3B (Martinez/Barger)
Springer
Varsho
Kirk
Gimenez
Alternately, you could be really bold and lead-off Gimenez to maximize the value of his speed, but that's bold confidence in his potential rebound. That's a big upgrade on where they stand right now. Even if it's not a league leading offense. So you've spent potentially $36 million out of that 52.
With $16 left (and a fair possibility that they'll want to leave a cushion of 6-7 million for July trade additions) you can maybe sign another needed reliever (Seawald?) or two depending on the price of any given guy. But the best starter you can afford in free agency is maybe Michael Lorenzen (Lance Lynn might come in under 10?).
Bottom line - I don't see them both significantly boosting the rotation AND the offense. I'm not sure which will end up being augmented but even with the most generous payroll assumptions, it's just not possible.
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