[Amended] It's probably best to begin with a disclaimer about budget assumptions. Mark Shapiro indicated the budget would be something like what it was last year. Last year that was just under $222 million before the addition of the other budget lines that count towards the CBT tax threshold. Altogether that put them into the low 240's and, at the time, around 4-6 million over the first threshold of $237 million.
It is reported that at the trade deadline they managed to shave that down under that line so, if true, that resets the clock and saves them from potentially paying a steeper penalty as for crossing the line in a second consecutive year. This year the first threshold is $241 million and the best estimates of current obligations suggests that the team has about $40 million to spend before crossing that line, although we have no indication they feel obliged to stay under it. Still, we'd only be guessing about how much more fits within Shapiro's "about the same" description.
So for the purposes of this unfounded speculation I'm going to suppose that apart from unicorn budgets they would try to stay under $50 million total additional commitments. Understanding for this thought experiment, that they're not spending the whole budget on the bullpen. Such an exercise is effectively crippled by the reports of them playing at the top of the SP market. Does that mean they'll commit half or more of their available budget to sign Burnes or Fried? Does that mean there's a budget exception (as with Soto) to sign one of them? Who the heck knows? I can only assume that if they want to add a SP and a bat that it throttles the idea of spending eight figures to add Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman (despite my "bring back former prospects" bias). So how might they build a (potentially - after last season you can't assume on anyone) worthy bullpen with a limited share of the budget?
Part of the answer is that you make trades, but since it's effectively impossible to predict such a trade, I'm speaking here in terms of free agency.
Second caveat: there are a LOT of available relievers and major league teams have access to an insane amount of data that doesn't show up in stat lines. I'm not even very good with publicly available stuff like spin rates and so forth. So my opinion is likely worth very little to anyone who is. Still, I like to write stuff about my team so here we are. Also, I'm going to set aside the aging guys who had surprisingly good years like Kirby Yates. Would I be at all surprised if he or someone like him is signed? No. But it only takes a superficial glance at these guys to understand that they'd be candidates. Not sure how much I'd be able to add.
Top Priority:
Michael Soroka - assuming that they don't want to pay the price for a "proven" closer, this is probably the best upside play on the market. When the White Sox moved Soroka to the bullpen his season turned around completely. They used him often in a multi-inning role (16 games, 36 IP) which might be where some teams see his value, and some might want to try him as a starter again but if he was this good in longer outings you have to be tempted to use him at the end of games, though not confined to only one inning necessarily. In this (smallish) sample of 36 IP he struck out 60 (that's 15/9 IP) and had a 2.75 ERA/FIP while holding opposing batters to .189/.303/.291/.594 with the only blemish being a too-high walk rate of 5/9 IP. One might speculate that with more space between him and injury he'll recover his previous lower walk rate (it was 2.4/9 coming into 2024). He's going into his age 27 season.
The Sox paid him $3 million last year and you'd be getting a good deal at twice the price for '25. You could load up some incentives for appearances and saves and if possible lock him up for more than one season. At his age and with his pedigree it's a chance I'd take. Late reporting suggests he's getting offers as a starter which might put this out of reach.
RH support:
The team already has Green and Swanson so this is the one part of the 'pen that's not in panic mode But one of the better options to add via free agency (without shopping at the top of the market) is Paul Sewald. He got paid $7.35mm last year by Arizona and he took a bit of a step back from the previous three seasons which were successful and consistent. Mainly driven by allowing more contact and posting a slightly lower K rate. But over the previous three years combined he had a 2.95 ERA, a 135 ERA+, and 12.2 K/9 over 189.1 IP. It will be his age 35 season so it's hard to speculate about salary and term but I'm going to suggest he should fall in that same 7-8 million range. The problem here is whether he'll prioritize situations where he's first in line to close.
Edit to add: I overlooked Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin and Tommy Kahnle. From 2021 to 2024 Kittredge posted a 2.48 ERA over 174 IP with a 3.62 FIP and a 165 ERA+ and The Athletic notes that his 38.9 percent chase rate was the best in baseball. Martin is going into his age 39 season, which would normally suggest caution, but he has possibly the most elite ability in the league in one valuable skill - man doesn't walk ANYONE. His career BB/9 is 1.2and it hasn't been higher than 1.5 in any season since 2018. It's not just an odd skill either, his ERA is 2.82 in almost 200 IP since the short season. Kahnle has had one bad year (2018) since 2016 and he had a 2.11 ERA in 2024 and if I'm fair, I'd rather sign either of than Sewald. I'll also offer a nod to the idea of bringing back Yimi Garcia if he's healthy. There are a lot of worse options.
LH Needed
The one to chase here is AJ Minter. He's had one off year in his career and that was in 2019. Since then he has a 2.85 ERA (2.84 FIP) and a 151 ERA+ over 243 IP. He put up 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 and kept the ball in the park. One might quibble that he had a really low BABip compared to the rest of his career but that's really picking the nits. He made $6.2 million in Atlanta last year and he's no secret so he might be the most expensive guy I've mentioned. You'd probably need to go 2 and maybe 3 years to get him, something around 3/25 maybe? They should.
A less expensive alternative is Danny Coulombe. He made 2.3 n Baltimore last year and they declined a $4 million option for 2025. But that was cheaping out unless they know something we don't. He did lose three months to injury last year but he pitched in the majors in September. Over four seasons ('21-'24) he posted a 2.75 ERA (3.17 FIP) to support a 148 ERA+. He has good ratios, keeps the HR rate down and isn't just a lefty killer. On the other hand he also had an outlier BABip in '24 of just .179 for whatever that's worth. Adding three of these would cost you somewhere between $17 and $23 million next year depending on which lefty you sign.
And yes, BTW, if someone is going to sign Tim Mayza to a minor league deal it should be Toronto. He wasn't a beast for the Yankees by any means but he wasn't a mess. They have, obviously, a better conception of WHY he was so bad for the Jays last season and whether there's hope for a rebound, so this might just be sentimentality on my part - but stranger comebacks have happened.
I guess the takeaway here is that once you get away from the expensive closer options, the overstuffed market isn't saturated with guys who inspire a ton of confidence that they're the answer to Toronto's bullpen situation so don't sleep too long unless you're confident in some helpful trades. On that point, while it's foolish to guess at trades, a line that got my attention is a youngster on the Marlins' roster named Andrew Nardi. The 26 year old lefty put up an ERA was an unpleasant 5.01 but he has a career K/9 of 12.4 (12.7 in '24) and his FIP was 3.33 so the ERA is likely very misleading. This is the kind of guy that you'd expect a team like the Jays to look at trading for. Robert Garcia, a slightly older lefty who pitched for the Nationals would be a similarly appealing target. Such under the radar guys are scattered around the league, sometimes playing for a team who'd rather turn that guy into, say, Leo Jimenez or Davis Schneider or some such.
We'll see.
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