Roster Speculation Too Early

 

 It's the time of year when you start seeing people speculate about what a contending version of the Jays might do in July to augment the roster - which has downstream implications for how the offseason would develop. What follows is loaded to the gils with assumptions that may not, in fact, manifest but it's at least one scenario that leads to a perhaps unexpected conclusion.

Let's first stipulate that the three areas of potential concern generally cited are SP upgrade, RP addition, and a RH hitter. Taking the last first, we're obliged to note that due to incumbent performance and contracts, there are two(ish) positions you can even entertain as open to upgrades. One is 3B and there's a fairly good chance that we'll be confident by July that there's no option available that promises a better outcome than we can get from Addison Barger. Yes, hot players can go cold and fail ala Davis Schneider but Barger was always a better prospect with more talent than Schneider who was a complete aberration when he was called up. 

The other is left field, more or less. For the sake of this exercise I'll call Santander our regular DH. When he's not Springer will be for the most part so either way, on opening in the outfield IF you operate from the premise that they dare not trust Lukes and the kids as they good into a playoff drive. That's NOT my position but if you assume that's a problem best solved internally then there's no real way to augment the batting order without something way more radical than this team is willing to do. Here's the thing though: go to FanGraphs and filter for RH hitting OF, ignore the players who are obviously not available, and look for players (theoretically) certain to be better down the stretch than Lukes/Roden/Clase/Loperfido and the list gets really short. Take out the few that are so young and controllable that their current team would be foolish to trade him and it's shorter still. 

Austin Hayes, Ramon Laureano and Tayler Ward. That's the three with a wRC+ higher than Myles Straw has right now. Three. Do I need to point out Laureano's combined WRC+ for the five seasons before this one combined is 101? He's not your savior. Hayes comes in slightly better at 106, but he was a free agent that they passed on last winter. Which means everyone looking to add an OF bat will be trying to get Ward - and he might not even be available.

Bottom line, barring a shocking acquisition of a player basically no one thinks is available - don't expect a big move here.

For the sake of length I'll discuss the pitching options in a separate column.