The Incoming Fire Sale (?)

  

So. It has been my position that the owners and the fans have too much invested in this season for Atkins to relent and pull the plug on this season. BUT each new day we are treated to a barely watchable listless effort from this lineup that seemingly can't bring themselves to give the GM some cover for acquiring some help, however long the odds. Certainly it might still happen but no one watching this team can see the potential for a sharp turnaround.

In that context my mind turns more and more to what a sale might look like as opposed to what might be available to rescue this squad. 

I've also been in the camp of "sell what?" because it didn't look like a promising crop, particularly if you're just making selective adjustments rather than beginning an overhaul. But maybe I'm too skeptical about value for trades, but I also recognize that there's so much uncertainty about how many teams will sell that it's possible nominal values might get inflated due to a forced scarcity. So maybe there's something to look forward to if not, ya know, winning ball games. Here's an exhaustive list of veteran players that might move. Mostly pending free agents but not entirely. 

Kevin Gausman - three turns left before the deadline, would have to impress scouts that (like last year) he's shaken off a bad June and is on track for a good second half. Some media speculates they would like to bring him back next year but if you get a tempting offer you take it and he'll understand. You can always resign him after the season if you want.

Shane Bieber - 2 more starts, similarly he has to pitch well in both but that seems much more likely after Saturday. He, too, could always be approached in the off-season if you want.

Max Scherzer - won't be healthy in time. If someone wanted to take on the gamble it would be for the most menial long shot A ball guy, and Scherzer might at least be able to take some turns if you do open up two holes in the rotation.

Jeff Hoffman - I'm a little skeptical here but there's every chance they will get their best offer for him and not be willing to say no.  That is, they don't have to be shopping him to get real quality offers (Maybe something involving Jett Williams if they think he can be a quality CF? This would be a spot where you'd want to address an impending hole if you can)

Yimi Garcia - similarly to Scherzer, no one should count on him

Patrick Corbin - fringy return if anything (which might still turn out nice, but not someone any of us have heard of now. That kid they got for Seabold has shown well early, something like that is best case)

Brendon Little - if anyone thinks they can fix him? He's thrown away pretty much all of the theoretical value he had a year ago.

George Springer - if he's convinced anyone with his .753 OPS in his last 38 games? I could see a team like the Braves thinking decent offense and vet leadership might be an asset. He'd have to agree to it (5/10)

Dalton Varsho - the horrific offense since he hurt the wrist really drags him down, but while he's no longer a premium CF, the Phillies, Astros, White Sox, Rays, and Marlins all might see him as an upgrade. A Hot streak would help. Likely has more market value than many Jays fans would expect.

Myles Straw - not going to get a premium return but a confident contender would like to improve at the margins.

Jesus Sanchez - again, a marginal add but a team with a need at DH as well as some outfield reps - Cleveland for example - could be interested.

Andres Gimenez - I don't know how, but it would be deeply stupid to pass on any opportunity. Moving at least the majority of his remaining money without taking on another bad contract would be a deal you dare not decline. I personally can't imagine how you'd do that and you'd surely get nothing but a wild card A ball guy or a very fringy quad-A dude. But this is a case where the exit is the most important thing. 

Lukes? Doesn't seem like they'd particularly want to but I could see there being teams that would find him interesting. How much would they pay for that interest though?

They'll get calls on Clement but that would be REALLY ballsy.

Could be as many as 6 or 7 deals out of that group IF Ross is cold-blooded enough to go full-reset. If you take it as a given that Pending free agents are (or will be if current trends continue) definitionally available the only two other people mentioned here who might be considered part of the "emotional core" of the '25 team are Lukes and Straw (I don't think Ross dares trade Clement) and so there's potential here if the players in question (particularly Gausman, Bieber, Varsho, and Springer) play well enough to be more desirable. 

Besides the obvious desire to add prospects, I wonder if they'll look for chances to add reclamation projects rather than just middling prospects. For example, Andrew Painter - is he REALLY just a complete bust or is there still potential there that Pete and his staff can pull out of him? As previously mentioned, an opportunity to add someone that would at least compete to be important players on the '27 team. Particularly starting pitchers and potential center fielders. 

I assume much of this will be obsolete before the weekend, but it's what I do. 

Gut Check Time

  This is a difficult summary to write because you really can't summarize anything. It's all "well if this happens then they could do that but if that happens then they'd maybe do this..." Everything is conditional. But the reason I'm writing out my thoughts is because I think there's a larger context that is also in play.

As any fan paying attention can sort out for themselves, there are basically three paths:

1. They come out of the break hot and end up .500 or better by the end of the month.

2. They continue to collapse and are 10, 12 games under by the end of the month.

3. They revert back to what they did for a month to get back to .500 (18-12, .600) which would leave them 3 games under on the morning of August 2.

In the first case they buy, in the second case they just write it off and sell, in the third they likely do a little of both. But the other context is that looking forward to '27 (as Ross Atkins WILL do) a lot of the roster is fixed already which limits the ability to improve the team apart from internal improvements (Vlad, Kirk, etc).

Working through the lineup, you can see the problem. Next year's catchers are this year's catchers (which should be a good thing). Next year's starting infield is, barring the incredibly fortunate possibility of getting some other sucker to take Giminez's contract, will be the same four guys and the reserve is flexible but not the position you look to for a big upgrade. The DH, if Springer isn't brought back, will almost certainly be (expected to be) Anthony Santander. If healthy they will try to play him, they won't write off that contract casually.

That leaves outfield as the only real opportunity for external offensive upgrade. They have to assume Barger is the presumptive RF, and they'll have Lukes and Straw (yes they will exercise his option) in reserve. They have, in house, a number of possible but replaceable LF options - Sanchez, Pinango, Schreck, Clase. But the first two are very bad defenders and not yet enough of a hitter to justify having a lock on the position. The others largely untested at all. Center is an issue because Varsho has suddenly become an ordinary defender which means he need to bring above average offense - which he might...or might not. But the free agent options beyond him for center field are pretty bleak.  The upshot is that whether they are adding a month from now with '27 in mind, or considering off-season upgrades (which would presumably come after the lockout is resolved) it will take considerable skill.

Behold

If you wisely assume that Acuna gets his option picked up, there's no upgrade on Varsho there (Grisham is something of a wash) and no offensive savior beyond Arozerena and Suzuki. When half or more of the teams in baseball are hungry for a good RH hitter. 

So Ross is out there this month trying to figure out if the trade market can solve either of those problems.

On the pitching staff, the rotation is kind of wide open in theory. There are three guys whose names are written in ink - Cease, Yesavage, and Ponce - and barring a big injury, Spencer Miles has a big leg up on one of the others. That leaves one slot, which won't be Berrios because he'll miss most or all of '27. They might bring back Gausman if he doesn't retire and after that it's about depth. The have, if healthy, Francis, Bloss, Dallas, Tiedemann, Perry and Stanifer  in line and close. That's good but one presumes they'd like something more than a TJ recovery and five rookies. The implication here is that Atkins would love to add a pitcher with control beyond this year (as he would with hitters) which thins the market again. 

The Marlins can't defend trading Alcantara while they're hot. The Twins don't seem on a path to sell off so Ryan may not be out there. KC is going nowhere but they just extended Waca, I don't think they want to move him. That leaves Reid Detmers and Jose Soriano with the Angels who are notoriously clingy about keeping guys they could get value for. Both Soriano and Detmers have 2 more years of control and I'll bet that if you really knew, Atkins would rather acquire that than Skubal this summer. Of course there are other options for this year who are pending free agents but those have no implications for '27. I think the Jays would go pretty hard on those Angels even if they were otherwise selling.

The bullpen to me is fascinating from a trade deadline perspective because if they are adding at all, Atkins always adds relievers at the deadline (unless they are way out like in '24). The thing is - there's not much room. There are the five core guys that have been, in most cases, overused - Varland, Hoffman, Rogers, Fisher, and Fluharty - plus Spencer Miles and there's six of eight spots spoken for. Three of those can technically be optioned but seem unlikely to be. Tommy Nance doesn't. He might get flipped but he's not just gonna be cut so there's seven.  That leaves Corbin who they very well might just let him go, so there's room to add one, but two? Not unless there's an injury. If you did add a guy who can't be optioned you've already filled most of your '27 'pen. 

Not that the bullpen needs to get better, as of right now, but bullpens are notoriously unpredictable. Point of all these many words is that there's WAY more room for Vlad, Kirk, Barger and Santander to improve the offense as any outside addition, and if Atkins did land a guy with control next year, there's not THAT much flexibility with the primary rotation (yes, I know how they are living out the "never have too much pitching" dream this year).