More Reflections on a Potential Vlad Deal.

In light of Shapiro's interview and because why not, I'ma do it again. IF they do make a deal that includes this season, 2025, Vlad's wanting 15 years (through his age 40 season) can work in their favor. If you start with $500 million in total value, which is a figure Vlad called his floor, and you make the last 4 seasons 20-20-15-15 (this is an off the cuff example) and round up the '25 salary to 30, that's $100m and leaves $400m over 10 in the middle.

The extended length makes the overall AAV 33.33 which is good for the Jays, in the peak years he'd get (and be worth, for all but one of them) $40m or more annually which should appeal to him, and his agent has to know that no other team is going to give him 15 years.

To illustrate in more detail, I'm going to steal the chart from Ben Nicholson-Smith's article that I've referenced before:

Here is a theoretical illustration of how such a deal might be structured:

30-36-42-45-45-45-45-40-40-36-30-22-20-12-12

What I'm doing here is minimizing the number of years that, if he produced more or less just what these projections suggest, that they would be noticeably underwater in terms of overpaying for that year's production. First, take note that BNS doesn't include 2025 on his chart but assuming he'll be worth $50m in '25 (using this formula) seems reasonable.

So to revise his chart and make it easier to follow...

Year	contract year	age	cost of 1 WAR	projected WAR	Value	proposed salary
2025	1	26	10	5	50	30
2026	2	27	10.3	5	51.5	36
2027	3	28	10.61	5	53.05	42
2028	4	29	10.93	4.5	49.17	45
2029	5	30	11.26	4.5	50.65	45
2030	6	31	11.59	4.5	52.17	45
2031	7	32	11.94	4	47.76	45
2032	8	33	12.3	3.5	43.05	40
2033	9	34	12.67	3	38	40
2034	10	35	13.05	2.5	32.62	36
2035	11	36	13.44	2	26.88	30
2036	12	37	13.84	2	27.68	22
2037	13	38	14.26	1.5	21.39	20
2038	14	39	14.69	1	14.69	12
2039	15	40	15.13	0.5	7.56	12

So that's surplus value for the first 8 years, and never more than $4 million underwater until the last year. In fact, if he underperformed this and only produced 4 WAR on average in years 2-6 he'd still not be underwater in the first 8 years. Of course it's not impossible to have a Prince Fielder situation but there's not really any way to pre-plan for that, it's the risk you take. Since I didn't include a totals line - that's 48.5 WAR, valued at $566.16 million, purchased for the low low price of $500 million.

Now, there's one more layer to this. Team payrolls 15 years ago were, in the top 12 spenders, at least $100m less than they are now (actual payroll, not CBT figures which wasn't a thing 15 years ago). The low spending teams don't inflate that much the mid-to large spenders do. If you project that forward then by the end of a 15 year deal the Jays payroll might easily be in the area of $350 million. In that context a $12m player is 3.4% of the payroll. For comparison, 3.4% of the 2025 payroll is almost $8.3m - Roughly what Dalton Varsho's making.

The point of all that is that if you structure the deal as I'm suggesting, Vlad's salary when he's nearing the end wouldn't be any sort of impediment to building a winning team. The whole gamble here is whether, in the main, he produces a career similar to what these generic projections would suggest. Think of it like this: if he is completely washed by 36 and gives you no value at all in the last four years, these projections still value him at roughly $495 million up to that point.

IF you - as the Blue Jays - have a value estimation system that produces generally similar projections to the publicly available Fangraphs system then it's not a massive risk to go to $500 million for that period of time unless you think he's gonna start crumbling before his mid-30s.

Aggregate Top Prospect List

  Every year for...a while now...one of the actual moments when I contribute, maybe, some value beyond just speculation is the aggregate list. I am obliged to wait on the respected outlets to publish which can vary the timing, and most years - like this one - I have to eventually give up on Fangraphs and figure them in when the eventually publish a Jays list. 

As always, I'm using a 30 point scale even though I'm using a list that only goes to 10 and another that only goes to 20, but you frankly can't construct a list worth writing about if you're only considering each lists' top 10. If you follow the team's prospect reporting you could probably name the top 10 vote getters off the top of your head, though the order might vary. What this means is that there are sharp drop off in points as players don't appear on the shorter lists but turn up on the longer ones. What I'm saying is that it's a terribly imperfect system, but whatchagonnado? At a minimum you can take note of which players are on more lists. 

Once the Fangraphs list drops (if as when) I'll recalculate. For now this is an aggregate of the Baseball Prospectus Top 10, the Athletic's Top 20 (KLaw), MLB Pipeline's newly published Top 30, Baseball America's Top 40, and Scott Mitchell's Top 50 for TSN. The Top 12 here appear on at least four of those lists so might fairly be considered the Top tier. I happen to be obsessive about round numbers so this list goes to 30, but that's only because the guys I want to include amount to more than 20 and I'm incapable of doing a "Top 23" or whatever. I'll mention where each of these will likely play in the upcoming season, assuming health and a couple of other notes, maybe, but I won't presume to including scouting info worked up by other professionals that you can find in the write-up of their lists. I'm not going to pretend to be that smart or hijack the work of others. So, with that said...

1. Arjun Nimmala (176 points) - there were no unanimous obvious #1 this year but I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one who got super-hyped about this guy. I'm not sure whether they start him back at Dunedin until it warms up but the bulk of the year he'll be at Vancouver unless he collapses. He's always going to be young for every level so there's no need to speed him through the system, at least not yet. Earliest Major league run, late 2027, easily could be 2028. Assigned to Vancouver for Opening Day.

2. Trey Yesavage (172) - Observers are pretty sure that he could hold his own at AA right now, but it's more likely that he'll go about six weeks (or roughly six starts) in Dunedin, another six in Vancouver and then head off to New Hampshire in early July. Whether or not he so dominates that he gets a taste of AAA in September remains to be seen but he might not be seriously tested until he hits AA. That track would have him as a candidate to force himself into the rotation in the second half of 2026 but a main contender to do so in the spring of '27.

3. Ricky Tiedemann (162) - He'd like to be back in real games late in the year, but if he got to, say, 20 IP that would be a win. Maybe he goes to the AFL if they think he could stand to build him up some more to platform for next spring. But given that his last challenge is refining his control, that particular concern isn't going to be fully resolved by Opening Day 2026 regardless. Best guess is that you should assume you're waiting until 2027 for him to have a full shot at the majors.

4. Orelvis Martinez (158) - if dude had a clear defensive position he'd very likely been the consensus #1. It's not crazy to say only Vlad has more power in the entire system - and it's kinda close. He's not as good an all around hitter but the power is legit. But as long as they don't know where they can play him - other than DH - there will be hesitation. As much as I've expressed the view "put him at DH and let him cook" - I don't think they will...yet. They'll give him about two months in Buffalo (watch where he gets the defensive reps) and see how things go for the major league squad. After that, it's all about the circumstances. Now that I think of it, I've never heard a scouting report explain why they never even thought about seeing how he handles the outfield - but there must be a reason. He'll likely get major league run before this season is over.

4. Jake Bloss (158) - I hang onto this as we get reports of him not hitting on all cylinders this spring after he got roughed up for Buffalo after the trade. The smart people think that he's really quite good. If healthy he'll be in Buffalo and as things stand now, when the Jays need someone not already on their roster to start some games for them, Bloss is (at least for now) the guy who'll get a shot. (Edit: well, not so much)

6. Josh Kasevich (142) - nominally behind Leo Jimenez on the depth chart because the latter is in his last option year and Kasavich doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until the next off-season, Kasevich is fully capable of playing an above average major league shortstop right now (as is Jimenez but perhaps has a little less arm). His bat took a step forward in the second half last year though lack of power still haunts him. He's said to be off the charts in all the things you want in a ballplayer that you cannot measure statistically. Given the roster consideration, it's fair to say that it's more likely you don't see him in a Blue Jays uniform until '26.

7. Kendrys Rojas (135) - he's going to be at AA and it may well test him at first but if he stays healthy and succeeds at this level you should be as excited about him as any of the SP above him. Expect him sometime in 2027.

8. Alan Roden (129) - if we used the phrase "with a bullet" for these lists it would be Roden it was applied to, Like Kasavich, off the charts in every intangible and unmeasurable part of his game - and surely the most intelligent player in the system if not arguably anywhere in the minors. He does everything on the field well (that you'd ask him to do) except max out his power potential and they're optimistic about that - after all he's said to be maybe the strongest player in the system. 

9. Will Wagner (123) - yes, also a tie, but Wagner is THIS close to losing his rookie eligibility and he will graduate possibly by the end of April (also why Jonatan Clase, despite being on some people's list, isn't here because he BARELY had enough active days to lose eligibility) and it seemed unfair to put him ahead of Roden given this circumstance. No reason to expect him to ever be back in the minors unless it's rehab.

Speaking of graduating, other young players besides Clase who are not yet established and are still "rookies" in all but the official sense who would likely be high on this list include Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

10. Khal Stephen (117) - I'll admit that I'm not yet fully sure how you pronounce that first name. I began thinking "Cal" but maybe it's "Call" but anyway - his model is going to look a lot like Yesavege except maybe somewhat slower. Something like two months at Dunedin, two at Vancouver, and two at New Hampshire until they find a level that challenges him. Then, if things go reasonable probably start back in AA next spring but spend most of that year in AAA. As I said, like Yesavege but a little behind him. Could be second half of '26 if needed, probably '27. He's been named Dunedin's Opening Day starter.

11. Johnny King (97) - a LOT of buzz around this guy, but he's a high school guy and almost always those start the year in the Complex and establish themselves before being considered to go across town to the DJays. Few there be that move beyond Florida in their first professional season.

12. Fernando Perez (93) - Regularly noted to be a guy who's a very good *pitcher* despite not as much "stuff" as the other guys here. Almost certain to spend the whole season in Vancouver and, if healthy, be on track to compete for a major league job in '28.

13. Landon Maroudis (88) - Recovering from the TJ brace procedure and targeted for a early-summer return to competition. Whether he gets out of Florida at all will depend on how quickly he gets his groove back. 

14. Adam Macko (83) - Yet another injury setback, not the arm or shoulder but the knee. When he gets game ready he'll surely try to build up his innings at AAA, but I confess I'm starting to get Nate Person vibes here (never allowed to gain momentum because of some weird health issue). 

15. Brandon Barriera (71) - saw some reporting (again, hit those original source sites for proper reports) that he looked in Spring last year like he had but his 2023 problems (reported out of shape and ended up dealing with multiple injuries) behind him. The buzz was back but then he got hurt early and also had TJ (I THINK the brace procedure also?) and so will still be rehabbing when the season starts. If he really learned his lesson and used this time to continue to refine the rest of his body, he might take off this year. But like Maroudis, seems unlikely to get out of Florida until 2026. Both of them would be on track for the back half of '28 or so for MLB debuts.

16. Charles McAdoo (58) - Didn't hit as well after the trade, and not entirely locked into a position, I suspect he'll start the year at AA. Another factor on that is that there's not going to be a ton of at bats available in Buffalo at least early on. How fast he comes is harder to predict than some of those mentioned above.

17. RJ Schreck (55) - A solid case can be made that he should break camp in Buffalo. But depending on who gets squeezed off of the major league roster there might not be the at bats there for him just yet. For example, there's a solid chance that the regular starting outfield would be Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase, and Joey Loperfido, and Will Robertson is still here trying to scratch out some playing time. Until injuries or poor performance changes the situation, if they want him to play it will be at AA to start. (this is also a factor with McAdoo).

17. Sean Keyes (55) - College hitter, showed well in Florida, power-over-contact guy. Assigned to Vancouver to start the year. Kinda early to know how his career progresses. They'll be looking to see if he can stick at 3B through the system.

19. Juaron Watts-Brown (50) - My guess is they want to see him consolidate a bit in Vancouver early on and hope he earns a promotion to AA early-mid summer. The uncertainty over whether he eventually moves to relief makes a major league ETA pure guesswork. 

19. Adrian Pinto (40) - An Altuve type physically, an injury history that defies description, a bit of crowding in AA might slow his promotion schedule but if injuries don't sidetrack another season he'll surely finish there.

20. Chris Polonco (38) - this year's premium international FA signing, like all those before him he'll get his professional start in the DSL.

21. Angel Bastardo (36) - I'm a skeptic about his control, but the Rule 5 pick will spend most if not all of this season recovering from elbow surgery so he'll have to try and prove me wrong in '26 - if he can stick on the major league roster. He might return late in the season but I'm not certain they'll want to carry a recovering rookie in the major league 'pen while making a playoff push.

22. Jonatan Clase (34) - likely be a good bit higher but the sources can't seem to get on the same page about rookie eligibility. BA thinks he's eligible, Pipeline doesn't. The rule, which apparently hasn't been updated to reflect the fact that rosters no longer blow up in September, says 45 days on the active major league roster (which he has) but not to include days after September 1 (which would drop him back below the line). I do wish they would get it together on this. Meanwhile, get you some tickets to head down to Buffalo (seriously, it's not impossible that they could field a legit potential major leaguer at every spot in the order - other than catcher - on any given night). Strong chance he breaks through this season.

23. Eddinson Paulino (33) - After the trade he was assigned to AA and only got into four games due to injuries. The versatile infielder likely starts back there just to consolidate a bit and let the organization watch him play up close, particularly as the primary SS (for which he's the most appealing candidate). With at least two highly regarded SS between him and Toronto, he'd have to show out to spent a lot of time in AAA this year but that doesn't mean there's nothing here.

24. Ryan Jennings (31) - There are some half dozen or so of these guys about which one might fairly say (based on reporting) "the organization seems to love this guy" - Jennings has become one of them. Most observers think he could (at least) hold his own in a major league  'pen right now but the team has so far mostly brought him along as a starter, until he came back from over a month on the IL last August and pitched out of the New Hampshire bullpen. Given he only accumulated 10 IP in AA, one assumes he'll start back there - and how soon he progresses depends on his role. 

25. Jace Bohrofen (29) - A huge August in Vancouver seems to line him up for a AA assignment this spring. There's significant OF depth in front on him so there's no reason to expect fast movement unless he's an absolute beast. 

26. Emmanuel Bonilla (24) - He started his year last season in the complex and did fine work, for a time - then he went off a cliff to an astonishing degree. He'll need to reset back on the same level unless he really impresses decision makers this spring. If he gets back on track then some significant portion of the year will be with the D-Jays. Still, even with steady progress it could easily be 2030 before he's thought to be ready for a major league shot. And of course, things could always go not-well.

27. Carson Messina (17) - Just go back and review what I said about King. Basically same thing applies here. The two given the Jays the potential of four legit prospects for the rotation arriving towards the end of the decade.

28. Victor Arias (14) - he only got 11 games at Vancouver late last season, decent chance he spends all of '25 back there though he has the potential to break-out and force a AA shot. Conservatively, 2028 would be a good ETA guess.

29. Mason Fluharty (12) - Would have a fairly solid shot at pitching in the majors this year if injuries open a path (there's hardly anyone in the likely major league 'pen that's optionable other than Brenden Little. He's not a sure thing though). Just note him as a AAA guy waiting for his shot (yes, I spent a lot of time believing in Eisert and Danner but there's a lot more noise around this guy).

30. Payton Williams (11) - Seems ready for AA. The best 1B in the system not named Vlad. You look at him and think "Rowdy" but the reports on his defense are much better. Probably a legit contender to make the majors beginning in '27.

30. Sam Shaw (11) - The guy who's probably situated to play the most innings at SS in Dunedin after the advancement of Nimmala, but he's listed as an OF so maybe they gave up on that already?. Got this spot entirely because Kieth Law ranked him 20th.

I will probably do some follow-ups that list positional depth for players with a reasonable shot at eventually playing in the majors in terms of their eventual arrival. Obviously not all of them will ever make it, or at least not in Toronto, but there are (not counting reliever because, ya know, who really knows?) 40-50 guys in the system that might actually make it.  Not that they all WILL, but any given one COULD. 

On the Come Up

 Originally the title was "Four on the Come Up" but eventually I decided I was unnecessarily slighting at least one other. But adding others just makes the point stronger so here we go.

There are two forces at work with the 2025 Blue Jays that are in some tension. The one everyone talks about is the addition of veterans from outside the organization in order to maximize their chances in a year that might be the end of the Vlad/Bo era. It's not a wrong or poor choice to do so but the natural result of that is having seven of the nine spots in most batting orders accounted for. Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Santander, etc are going to be out there - barring injury - in the vast majority of games (and STILL the commentators muse occasionally about being "one bat short"). Third base and, kinda, DH are the only two places where there's some flexibility.

And yet, there are 4-5 young, not yet established, players that in an ideal world you'd really like to see blossom into legit contributors this year. Let me elaborate.

Addison Barger - some observers seem to be acting like Ernie Clement is that natural incumbent at 3B because he got so many starts last year and played very good defense there. But he doesn't have an offensive profile that screams "every day starter on a contending team." His game plays up a lot better coming off of the bench. Barger has the best natural claim to the right to make his case to own the job. He's a steadier defender, insofar as we've been told, than Martinez, has a cannon for an arm while Wagner's is short for the position, and has a power and on-base upside far beyond anything reasonable to expect of Clement. If he can approximate his minor league performance in the majors, he'd insert a very valuable lefty bat into the middle of their order. In 153 AAA games he hit 41 doubles and 21 homers with a .372 OBP. If for some reason (noted below) they choose differently for 3B, there would be a strong case for Springer and Santander soaking up a lot of DH at bats while Barger plays RF.

Orelvis Martinez - Everyone interest in Blue Jays prospects at even a causal level knows this guy is a legit 30+ homer guy whose power comes easy. Buzz is that he's already showing evidence of adding the needed polish to his overall offensive game with better plate discipline and bat control. Reservations exist about his defensive position, but it seems some in and around the org are coming around to a point I've been making for a couple of years - who cares about the glove, let him DH and watch the young man cook. If you think you need to prepare for Vlad to leave, don't daydream about Alonso or someone - let Mattingly school Orelvis at 1B as a plan B. Of course, there's a non-zero chance that he'll show enough consistency at 3B to win that job, which is fine if they find a way to make sure Barger gets plenty of run. In this sense (and some of these other scenarios) what would open doors is the return of George Springer's tendency to spend some time injured. Not to wish harm on him or anyone but were I a gambler I feel pretty good about a bet that both these young men will produce more offense than Springer in 2025. But the team will be slow to reduce his playing time if he's healthy.

Will Wagner - this is the trickiest situation on the list because the team seems convinced that he'll be an important part of this team but there's no clean fit anywhere. He's played a little 3B but that arm, his best position is 2B but that's no longer an option. He can spell Vlad at 1B but that's not all that many at bats. He could DH but then Vlad or Barger would have to sit. You could, with a major league coaching staff, engineer an optimization plan that would have Barger at 3B or RF against MOST RHP, Wagner at DH (except when occasionally spelling Vlad) against most RHP Martinez at DH or 3B (depending on how heavy the defensive demand will be that day at 3B) against virtually every LHP as well as DH when Wagner is playing 1B and 3B when Barger is in the OF while an outfielder is the DH. For someone like me it would be very complex because it turns on a lot of things (like whether you're facing a fly ball hitting team or your SP allows a lot of grounders to the left side on any given day) but you COULD maybe split the at bats of two positions among three guys here and not let any of them rust too much.

Alan Roden - by now you've seen all the hype, and heard Ross call him by name as someone to watch ad I agree. He's got a lot of skills to bring to the team, particularly as a lead-off hitter, but what he doesn't have is an obvious position on the major league team. Again, barring injury. The kid isn't going to be your DH, the three outfield spots are filled by veterans and if all goes well are adequately covered when one needs to sit or DH. A player like Roden NEEDS to be getting his reps in and so he will (barring injury) - in AAA. For a while. By June, if Springer's not making a noticeable comeback, both he and the organization are going to have to accept that it's a stronger team with him on the bench. And if they're not winning a lot more games than many expect, they can't wait around past mid-season to pull that unappealing trigger. Maybe at that point the recall Roden. But having all four of these guys trying to get regular playing time this year is still going to be a heck of a challenge and you don't want to hobble any of them by not getting them enough work to get in a groove.

Joey Loperfido - I believe in this guy more than most and even I sometimes forget to include him in these speculations. He could maybe start at AAA and be told to "go down there and force us to promote you" or they could accept that his opportunities will be spotty but decide to carry him as a backup because he can play CF (where either Barger or Roden would be pressed). I don't exactly see how he gets a chance to lay claim to a position as his own unless (a) something bad happens to/with Springer AND Roden isn't rolling hot in AAA at the time he might have otherwise been called. But that doesn't mean I don't respect his upside, it's just a roster construction issue.

My point is, I want to believe that every one of these players can and may very likely will surpass what has been projected from them - that would be a very exciting aspect of a successful season. But the just won't all fit. Some of these guys are going to need run that they won't find available in the majors this year. And that sucks a bit IMO. And in all this I haven't said anything about Davis Schneider, or Nathan Lukes, or Leo Jiminez, or John Kasavich, or Jonatan Clase. Because for one reason or another, in my judgement, they are all behind the guys I listed above. 

And if Vlad and Bo do get away, as painful as that would be, maybe the near-term future isn't going to be the dark valley so many seem to assume.

Why is No One Talking About This?

 To be fair, there's a level on which I already know the answer. But still, commentators and staff around any team regularly speculate and spitball about "out of the box" ideas, yet I've seen/heard basically nothing about an idea that seems fairly obvious to me.

Going into the off-season there was a widely held view that among the positions that were in some sense available to be used to upgrade the team - 3B, 2B, LF, DH - the one with the best internal solution was 2B because the organization seemed pretty high on getting Will Wagner's bat into the lineup. But since the Andrés Giménez acquisition that got a lot more cloudy. If you want Wagner in the lineup, where does he play? They're now, belatedly, mumbling about giving him a look at 3B (where he has played some in the minors but word is the arm will be short for that) or even a lot of reps at DH (not ideal for a 26 year old, and not an option when you want one of your corner outfielders to get a half-day off) or, even worse, putting him at 1B and Vlad at DH (all the best of luck in THAT making him feel better about re-signing).

Less discussed but at least mentioned is the idea of moving Vlad to third (which he would love and might move the needle in terms of getting him signed) and playing Wagner at 1B - but most of the metrics aren't liking him much by now as a first baseman so it's difficult to believe that they'd give very many 3B reps to Vlad this year, and less easy to believe they would have some plan to do that which wasn't buzzing around Dunedin by now. But there IS another option.

I'll say this up-front, from an "intangible" point of view, this would have to have the player involved out in front saying "It's all good, anything for the team" and be sincere about it. Look at George Springer this week - Not lead-off? Okay. Left field some? Fine, whatever they think makes us stronger" - or words to that effect. If you don't have that, you create the potential for bad blood and resentment which washes out whatever you might have gained.

What am I talking about? Bo Bichette at third base. I know, I know, Bo's been pretty vocal about "I'm a shortstop" and discouraging the idea of any position change, but better shortstops than him - some significantly so - changed positions for the good of the team and in so doing proved they could be good at more than one position. From a business perspective (as a player), it's good for your next contract. Bo's team ought to consider, if your market is winning teams willing to, in theory, give you over $20 million a year - almost all of them already HAVE a highly paid SS or a young one they believe in. Being willing to play some other position maximizes the chance of a bigger contract.

If Bo is willing to contentedly play 3B (he can't really afford to get twisted up because he's got to feel focused in the batter's box or there's no big contract) then Giménez slides to SS (improving the defense outcome at the most important position on the field) and Wagner plugs in at 2B. Problem solved. 

I've been a defender of and advocate for Martinez and Barger in particular along with Loperfido and the other younger players that are on the margins of the roster but this - analytically, on-paper - SEEMS like a pretty obvious way to stabilize the lineup. With the DH slot still in play there's opportunities for those other guys to get some reps but I feel like there's a lot of value in having an "everyday" group of at least 8 out of 9 spots.

So why is it NEVER mentioned? I get that the team might be on eggshells a bit about giving Bo a new reason to want to leave, but if they offered him, say, a six-year deal are they really prepared to commit to him as your SS for the next six years? If not that's a bridge you're gonna have to cross at some point.

But even so, none of that keeps the beat writers and radio hosts and what not from mulling the option. Let's talk about it.

Briefly RE Vlad's deal

 Briefly? When have I ever?

Anyway, all the beat guys have to generate content (after all, they're getting paid) and it would be silly to begrudge the various speculations about what Vlad's deal should look like, but let's set some boundaries:

Vlad's not going to get Soto money. Arguably Soto shouldn't have landed a $51m AAV, but I hope I don't need to go deep on why Vlad's not Soto. Notably though, Soto's fWAR is double Gurrero's with Vlad having 118 fewer games played. 

Second, no Vlad's not going to equal or approach Judge's $40 million AAV nor should he. When he signed Judge also had twice the accumulated fWAR as Vlad and in fewer games than Vlad has now, plus he's capable of an at least passable CF. It will be a longer deal and thus larger in total value, because Judge was going into his age 30 season. But not that much on AAV.

He shouldn't expect to surpass the present-day value of Shohei Ohtani (almost $438mm). Besides the obvious fact that he can't pitch, Ohtani had accumulated 19.5 fWAR as a hitter in 716 games compared to Vlad's 17 in 819 games. 

He will likely exceed Mookie Betts in total value and AAV even though Betts is pretty clearly a more valuable player. Betts got $365m in starting in 2021 on a 12 year deal which is an AAV a bit over $30m a year. Recent market inflation has made Betts' deal something of a bargain.

On the AAV front, Mike Trout comes in at a bit over 35.5 and Francisco Lindor is at 34.1 and coming in below these would give him as much as the 6th highest AAV, exceeding them would set him 4th.

Everyone seems to agree that you'll have to get to at least $400mm in all to get a signature, and it's fair to think that you don't have to pass Ohtani to be satisfied. In that range of 400-436 you can do a lot of creative variations depending on the number of years you are buying and whether you price in the 2025 salary. For example, if you price his actual free agent years at $36m x 11 years then add in this season's 28.5 you get 12 years total for 424.2 and an AAV just below Trout's. That's the 4th biggest contract ever and 5th highest AAV. 

I'm not predicting this per se, just using it as an example of the range they are probably discussing. It's impossible to know whether Vlad's team even cares about AAV but actually just has a goal for the total contract, for example, but it's fair to assume that the discussion exists in the 400-440 range and 12-13 years which the Jays are just going to have to accept. I assume that as the deadline looms, that you need to work out granular details about signing bonuses and opt-outs (I wouldn't be at all surprised if he has one at 5 or 6 years out) and maybe deferrals, but they have to be pretty close on the total value at this point. 

We'll know soon. 

Lineup Musings

 Maybe this is sort of an outdated mentality. Maybe there's a bunch of papers out there that detail why this is really no big thing. Maybe the team knows things that I don't (I mean, of course they do but I mean specific to this issue I want to speculate about) but short of speculating over Vad's eventual contract there's not that much else to discuss.

My concern is the line-up, specifically to the lead-off spot and the presumed interest in not staking up your lefties. It's a fine group of players, position by position, but as an offensive lineup, the pieces don't fit quite as well as you'd think they should.

Out of the 13 roster spots that go to hitters, eight of them WILL be on the roster pending health (yes, Varsho won't be ready opening day so it's actually seven - I'll get back to that) because of contract or role. Additionally, one spot goes to the reserve catcher and one goes to the guy who gets the CF job until Varsho returns and the team seems REALLY impressed with Wagner so while not a lock, he's got a tight grip on a spot. So that's 10 of the 13. Even if you assume Clement is the default 3B (I don't) then you should assume that one of those three spots is another infielder since Clement's greatest value is to be the backup for the middle infielders so you either need someone like Jiminez for that, or someone like Barger or Martinez to play 3B. Of the other two, one will need to be a flexible reserve outfielder and the last spot could go any of several ways.

But out of this crowd, very few are a reasonable candidate to lead-off who gets that job is relevant to how you order the rest...and the elephant in that particular room is George Springer. One thing you want the first hitter to do is get on base. Last season, while he still gave you a fair rate of XBH his OBP was .303 which is... not ideal. In my view, and that of many others, he needs to hit in the bottom third of the order (if he's in the lineup that day at all) but it's a sticky wicket to tell your veteran star who's still owed $45m that this is what he's come to. I fear that the team will, at least to start the year, keep him in the spot and hope against hope for an unlikely revival from his bat. To be clear, I'm not saying he won't maybe be BETTER than last year, but enough better to be a valuable lead-off? That seems a lot less likely.

In the meantime, let's set that aside and discuss alternatives. Another thing you'd like to have up top is speed. The player that most clearly brings that skill is Andrés Giménez. Except his OBP last season was .298. On the other hand, he's nine years younger and that should mean he's got a better chance of recovering some measure of past success than Springer does. With both of these Spring Training will tell the team (if not us) a lot. 

If the team really is in love with Will Wagner, you'd think he might be in play here, particularly if they think he can be the primary 3B. Hs OBP was .337, and his total in 83 games at AAA is .445 - over his entire professional career it's 390 so there's promise there. They might even use him, though it's uncommon for a player in his 20's that's not a big power bat, as a sort of defacto regular DH (which would create an issue on the days you want Santander to DH) just to get his bat in the lineup. if you want Springer to DH, Wagner could at least play 3B on that day, same with Santander. Assuming he plays an acceptable third.

Beyond that there are contingencies that are even less cut & dried. For example, if you give Nathan Lukes the run he deserves in Varsho's CF, he's been a high OBP guy his whole career and a good baserunner. Can't be certain how he'd hold up over an extended run in the majors and I'm skeptical they'd throw an over-age rookie in as a lead-off hitter but I'd spend a lot of time this spring evaluating the possibility.

If Joey Loperfido could carry over his minor league production to the majors, he'd be in the conversation. In the minors he had a .377 OBP and stole 69 bases in 290 games, plus he has quite a bit more pop than Lukes. But his major league work so far has certainly not demanded the team throw him into that kind of role. You'd have to think he'd need to prove something first.

Similarly, Addison Barger improved his OBP at every level as he moved through the minors, including .391 at Buffalo last season. But rightly or wrongly he's viewed more as a guy with a power stroke than an on-base guy and would have to provide a lot of major league proof before being seen as a top-of-the-order option. Plus, he'd have to win a regular role on the team in order to get that run. It's very possible that both Barger and Wagner make the team but with some uncertainty about how they plug into the lineup every day. 

The common thread for all these "not Springer" guys the bat left handed. In one sense, it's a plus to put a lefty ahead of Bo-Vlad-Santander but the downside is that the #9 hitter - unless it's Springer and I'm not holding my breath on THAT - will also be a lefty and you'll have to do some tricky things to keep from stacking most of your lefties in too-close proximity. An example:

Wagner - 3B
Bo
Vlad
Santander
Barger - RF
Springer - DH
Varsho/Loperfido/Lukes
Kirk
Giménez

After the first at-bat, you'll have Kirk as the only RH in a string of four batters. That's not horrific but it's imperfect. Worse, you have the team's slowest guy batting right in front of the team's fastest guy. Also not ideal. But I'd not be completely down on this. I won't go through every potential variant here, You can play some with the possibilities if you like. But I do need to make two additional notes. If, somehow, they still end up signing Bregman the most obvious arrangement is probably 

Bo
Vlad
Bregman
Santander

and the rest to be sorted out. The other note is that there a notable possibility that Orelvis (a RH hitter) storms ST and wins a job based on his bat (DH or 3B) and that would make at-bats less readily available to Barger and Wagner. 

I still say a lot of this turns on how coldly calculating they will be when it comes to Springer if he's looking old again in the coming months. 

Edited to add: it occurs to me that in all these discussions I almost never mention Davis Schneider. It's not so much that I don't think he'll make the team, he seems to have the strongest case for the 13th spot within the context of everything else we know, but I don't see how he gets into the starting lineup regularly unless he parties like it's 2023. Rather, he will have the period of time that Varsho is on the IL to secure his status. At that point, barring a different injury, one of the younger players is off to Buffalo and he may or may not be the one. 

Starters via Trade?

 What if the remaining FA starters worth having signed elsewhere? Scherzer wants a winner (Mets?), Flaherty gets his wish to return to Detroit, and so forth. It feels like the folks covering the team aren't hearing, or speculating, enough about potential trades. To an extent, that's understandable since Ross Atkins has been loath to dip into his shallow pool of coveted (or at least somewhat appealing) assets this winter. Still, not EVERY option is going to blow a hole in the remaining prospect list.

There are two who are reportedly at least somewhat available, for the right price, who would. Dylan Cease is far and away the best option left but if the Padres got serious about that, there are multiple teams (Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, the Mets, the Cubs, even Cincinnati) who could steamroll any offer the Jays would make. Luis Castillo isn't quite on that tier but come with multiple years under contract and one would similarly assume that Toronto wouldn't be able to field the best offer (though they should of course confirm that and not just assume).

But beyond those, there are interesting options who, while not top tier, could be as useful to the team as someone like Nick Pivetta or Jose Quintina.  Take the Dodgers for example. Their projected rotation now includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Gavin Stone. Plus Tony Goslin and Dustin May coming back from losing a year to elbow surgery, PLUS Clayton Kershaw is in "please call me bro" mode. Beyond that incredible depth there's River Ryan, Landon Knack, and Bobby Miller. Admittedly Miller fell apart last year but how hard could it be to pry lose one of those depth options? Imagine, say, gambling on the recovery of Goslin (who has two years of control) or May and winning? Short of that, scoring River Ryan would be a coup. [Edit: Not that it matters any more, but I just learned Ryan is injured and likely out for the season.]

But let me move beyond complete speculation to somewhat more informed spitballing. There are some guys out there who are known to be available salary dumps. Perhaps most notoriously, Jordan Montgomery. If the Jays were willing to absorb his whole contract they could acquire Montgomery for practically nothing before sunset. Should they? Over the course of '21-'23 he had a 3.48 ERA, a 120 ERA+, and a 3.62 FIP. And not all of that can be dismissed as "sticky stuff". I'm not finding a ton of deep-dives into what went wrong last year, but this has some good points. The question here is now much of the deal do you need Arizona to eat in order to find an agreement. His contract is for $22.5 million and it seems really unlikely any team is going to soak up that whole obligation. But if you could get it down to, say, 16 and that didn't cost you too much in prospect balance? I'd take a one year risk on him over giving  Pivetta three.

Then there's Marcus Stroman. Stroman also had a 120 ERA+ over the three seasons previous to 2024, a 3.45 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Which is almost identical to Montgomery, and his fall-off wasn't as dramatic as Mongomery's (although their FIP was similar). Moreover his contract is for a marginally more modest $18.5 million - albeit with an $18 million player option. On the other hand, the decline doesn't have as many ready explanations as Montgomery's does. Still, if the Yankees just want to move on and don't expect a big return, there's some appeal here, even more so if they'll nibble a few million off of it. The risk, of course, is if he's really in age decline and he pitches poorly enough to exercise the option.

The Cardinals are looking to shed payroll are constrained by their most appealing trade chips holding no-trade protections that they won't waive. Miles Mikolas has a big contract (relative to his production) but is in decline and would be a bad idea. Next in line is Steven Matz. The one-time Blue Jays is an interesting case. He parlayed his strong '21 for the Jays into a four-year contract with the Cardinals that has been marred by injuries and inconsistency. But take a closer look. In '22 his ERA was 5.25 but his FIP was 3.78, almost identical to his FIP the previous year for the Jays. In '23 it was 3.75 (alongside an ERA of 3.86). In '24 his strikeout rate dropped off and his ERA (and FIP) went up. He's under contract for $12.5 million which is, in the current market, a minor bargain if he's not washed. And if he's healthy enough to get at least 20-25 starts.

The Cards also have Erikc Feede under contract for $7.5 million but that's so relatively little that their (professed) money woes would have to be severe for them to trade him (albeit he was never particularly good before '24 so there is some risk) and if they did you have to think other contenders could be more persuasive in terms of return. 

There was some speculation that the Twins might want to shave Chris Paddack off of their payroll, but he also is making only $7.5 million so it wouldn't seem to be a matter of desperation. One way to approach it might be to offer to take Christian Vasquez's $10 million contract if you can get Paddock for minimal prospect return. Vasquez is well overpaid and hasn't been a good hitter for the last two years, but neither is Heinemann and he at least has a great defensive reputation. Paddock missed most of '22 and '23 to injury and eventually Tommy John surgery and was below average last season. as he delt with fatigue in his throwing arm (among other things) in his first full season back (which wasn't a full season, he got 17 starts). He's never lived up to the promise of his rookie year but if you REALLY thought there was something there, maybe you talk yourself into it?

Anyway, depending on the return and the cost, I would be pretty placid about any of Montgomery, Stroman, or Matz. But seriously, let's have a lot of discussions with the Dodgers.