Lineup Musings

 Maybe this is sort of an outdated mentality. Maybe there's a bunch of papers out there that detail why this is really no big thing. Maybe the team knows things that I don't (I mean, of course they do but I mean specific to this issue I want to speculate about) but short of speculating over Vad's eventual contract there's not that much else to discuss.

My concern is the line-up, specifically to the lead-off spot and the presumed interest in not staking up your lefties. It's a fine group of players, position by position, but as an offensive lineup, the pieces don't fit quite as well as you'd think they should.

Out of the 13 roster spots that go to hitters, eight of them WILL be on the roster pending health (yes, Varsho won't be ready opening day so it's actually seven - I'll get back to that) because of contract or role. Additionally, one spot goes to the reserve catcher and one goes to the guy who gets the CF job until Varsho returns and the team seems REALLY impressed with Wagner so while not a lock, he's got a tight grip on a spot. So that's 10 of the 13. Even if you assume Clement is the default 3B (I don't) then you should assume that one of those three spots is another infielder since Clement's greatest value is to be the backup for the middle infielders so you either need someone like Jiminez for that, or someone like Barger or Martinez to play 3B. Of the other two, one will need to be a flexible reserve outfielder and the last spot could go any of several ways.

But out of this crowd, very few are a reasonable candidate to lead-off who gets that job is relevant to how you order the rest...and the elephant in that particular room is George Springer. One thing you want the first hitter to do is get on base. Last season, while he still gave you a fair rate of XBH his OBP was .303 which is... not ideal. In my view, and that of many others, he needs to hit in the bottom third of the order (if he's in the lineup that day at all) but it's a sticky wicket to tell your veteran star who's still owed $45m that this is what he's come to. I fear that the team will, at least to start the year, keep him in the spot and hope against hope for an unlikely revival from his bat. To be clear, I'm not saying he won't maybe be BETTER than last year, but enough better to be a valuable lead-off? That seems a lot less likely.

In the meantime, let's set that aside and discuss alternatives. Another thing you'd like to have up top is speed. The player that most clearly brings that skill is Andrés Giménez. Except his OBP last season was .298. On the other hand, he's nine years younger and that should mean he's got a better chance of recovering some measure of past success than Springer does. With both of these Spring Training will tell the team (if not us) a lot. 

If the team really is in love with Will Wagner, you'd think he might be in play here, particularly if they think he can be the primary 3B. Hs OBP was .337, and his total in 83 games at AAA is .445 - over his entire professional career it's 390 so there's promise there. They might even use him, though it's uncommon for a player in his 20's that's not a big power bat, as a sort of defacto regular DH (which would create an issue on the days you want Santander to DH) just to get his bat in the lineup. if you want Springer to DH, Wagner could at least play 3B on that day, same with Santander. Assuming he plays an acceptable third.

Beyond that there are contingencies that are even less cut & dried. For example, if you give Nathan Lukes the run he deserves in Varsho's CF, he's been a high OBP guy his whole career and a good baserunner. Can't be certain how he'd hold up over an extended run in the majors and I'm skeptical they'd throw an over-age rookie in as a lead-off hitter but I'd spend a lot of time this spring evaluating the possibility.

If Joey Loperfido could carry over his minor league production to the majors, he'd be in the conversation. In the minors he had a .377 OBP and stole 69 bases in 290 games, plus he has quite a bit more pop than Lukes. But his major league work so far has certainly not demanded the team throw him into that kind of role. You'd have to think he'd need to prove something first.

Similarly, Addison Barger improved his OBP at every level as he moved through the minors, including .391 at Buffalo last season. But rightly or wrongly he's viewed more as a guy with a power stroke than an on-base guy and would have to provide a lot of major league proof before being seen as a top-of-the-order option. Plus, he'd have to win a regular role on the team in order to get that run. It's very possible that both Barger and Wagner make the team but with some uncertainty about how they plug into the lineup every day. 

The common thread for all these "not Springer" guys the bat left handed. In one sense, it's a plus to put a lefty ahead of Bo-Vlad-Santander but the downside is that the #9 hitter - unless it's Springer and I'm not holding my breath on THAT - will also be a lefty and you'll have to do some tricky things to keep from stacking most of your lefties in too-close proximity. An example:

Wagner - 3B
Bo
Vlad
Santander
Barger - RF
Springer - DH
Varsho/Loperfido/Lukes
Kirk
Giménez

After the first at-bat, you'll have Kirk as the only RH in a string of four batters. That's not horrific but it's imperfect. Worse, you have the team's slowest guy batting right in front of the team's fastest guy. Also not ideal. But I'd not be completely down on this. I won't go through every potential variant here, You can play some with the possibilities if you like. But I do need to make two additional notes. If, somehow, they still end up signing Bregman the most obvious arrangement is probably 

Bo
Vlad
Bregman
Santander

and the rest to be sorted out. The other note is that there a notable possibility that Orelvis (a RH hitter) storms ST and wins a job based on his bat (DH or 3B) and that would make at-bats less readily available to Barger and Wagner. 

I still say a lot of this turns on how coldly calculating they will be when it comes to Springer if he's looking old again in the coming months. 

Edited to add: it occurs to me that in all these discussions I almost never mention Davis Schneider. It's not so much that I don't think he'll make the team, he seems to have the strongest case for the 13th spot within the context of everything else we know, but I don't see how he gets into the starting lineup regularly unless he parties like it's 2023. Rather, he will have the period of time that Varsho is on the IL to secure his status. At that point, barring a different injury, one of the younger players is off to Buffalo and he may or may not be the one.