On the Come Up

 Originally the title was "Four on the Come Up" but eventually I decided I was unnecessarily slighting at least one other. But adding others just makes the point stronger so here we go.

There are two forces at work with the 2025 Blue Jays that are in some tension. The one everyone talks about is the addition of veterans from outside the organization in order to maximize their chances in a year that might be the end of the Vlad/Bo era. It's not a wrong or poor choice to do so but the natural result of that is having seven of the nine spots in most batting orders accounted for. Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Santander, etc are going to be out there - barring injury - in the vast majority of games (and STILL the commentators muse occasionally about being "one bat short"). Third base and, kinda, DH are the only two places where there's some flexibility.

And yet, there are 4-5 young, not yet established, players that in an ideal world you'd really like to see blossom into legit contributors this year. Let me elaborate.

Addison Barger - some observers seem to be acting like Ernie Clement is that natural incumbent at 3B because he got so many starts last year and played very good defense there. But he doesn't have an offensive profile that screams "every day starter on a contending team." His game plays up a lot better coming off of the bench. Barger has the best natural claim to the right to make his case to own the job. He's a steadier defender, insofar as we've been told, than Martinez, has a cannon for an arm while Wagner's is short for the position, and has a power and on-base upside far beyond anything reasonable to expect of Clement. If he can approximate his minor league performance in the majors, he'd insert a very valuable lefty bat into the middle of their order. In 153 AAA games he hit 41 doubles and 21 homers with a .372 OBP. If for some reason (noted below) they choose differently for 3B, there would be a strong case for Springer and Santander soaking up a lot of DH at bats while Barger plays RF.

Orelvis Martinez - Everyone interest in Blue Jays prospects at even a causal level knows this guy is a legit 30+ homer guy whose power comes easy. Buzz is that he's already showing evidence of adding the needed polish to his overall offensive game with better plate discipline and bat control. Reservations exist about his defensive position, but it seems some in and around the org are coming around to a point I've been making for a couple of years - who cares about the glove, let him DH and watch the young man cook. If you think you need to prepare for Vlad to leave, don't daydream about Alonso or someone - let Mattingly school Orelvis at 1B as a plan B. Of course, there's a non-zero chance that he'll show enough consistency at 3B to win that job, which is fine if they find a way to make sure Barger gets plenty of run. In this sense (and some of these other scenarios) what would open doors is the return of George Springer's tendency to spend some time injured. Not to wish harm on him or anyone but were I a gambler I feel pretty good about a bet that both these young men will produce more offense than Springer in 2025. But the team will be slow to reduce his playing time if he's healthy.

Will Wagner - this is the trickiest situation on the list because the team seems convinced that he'll be an important part of this team but there's no clean fit anywhere. He's played a little 3B but that arm, his best position is 2B but that's no longer an option. He can spell Vlad at 1B but that's not all that many at bats. He could DH but then Vlad or Barger would have to sit. You could, with a major league coaching staff, engineer an optimization plan that would have Barger at 3B or RF against MOST RHP, Wagner at DH (except when occasionally spelling Vlad) against most RHP Martinez at DH or 3B (depending on how heavy the defensive demand will be that day at 3B) against virtually every LHP as well as DH when Wagner is playing 1B and 3B when Barger is in the OF while an outfielder is the DH. For someone like me it would be very complex because it turns on a lot of things (like whether you're facing a fly ball hitting team or your SP allows a lot of grounders to the left side on any given day) but you COULD maybe split the at bats of two positions among three guys here and not let any of them rust too much.

Alan Roden - by now you've seen all the hype, and heard Ross call him by name as someone to watch ad I agree. He's got a lot of skills to bring to the team, particularly as a lead-off hitter, but what he doesn't have is an obvious position on the major league team. Again, barring injury. The kid isn't going to be your DH, the three outfield spots are filled by veterans and if all goes well are adequately covered when one needs to sit or DH. A player like Roden NEEDS to be getting his reps in and so he will (barring injury) - in AAA. For a while. By June, if Springer's not making a noticeable comeback, both he and the organization are going to have to accept that it's a stronger team with him on the bench. And if they're not winning a lot more games than many expect, they can't wait around past mid-season to pull that unappealing trigger. Maybe at that point the recall Roden. But having all four of these guys trying to get regular playing time this year is still going to be a heck of a challenge and you don't want to hobble any of them by not getting them enough work to get in a groove.

Joey Loperfido - I believe in this guy more than most and even I sometimes forget to include him in these speculations. He could maybe start at AAA and be told to "go down there and force us to promote you" or they could accept that his opportunities will be spotty but decide to carry him as a backup because he can play CF (where either Barger or Roden would be pressed). I don't exactly see how he gets a chance to lay claim to a position as his own unless (a) something bad happens to/with Springer AND Roden isn't rolling hot in AAA at the time he might have otherwise been called. But that doesn't mean I don't respect his upside, it's just a roster construction issue.

My point is, I want to believe that every one of these players can and may very likely will surpass what has been projected from them - that would be a very exciting aspect of a successful season. But the just won't all fit. Some of these guys are going to need run that they won't find available in the majors this year. And that sucks a bit IMO. And in all this I haven't said anything about Davis Schneider, or Nathan Lukes, or Leo Jiminez, or John Kasavich, or Jonatan Clase. Because for one reason or another, in my judgement, they are all behind the guys I listed above. 

And if Vlad and Bo do get away, as painful as that would be, maybe the near-term future isn't going to be the dark valley so many seem to assume.