Briefly RE Vlad's deal

 Briefly? When have I ever?

Anyway, all the beat guys have to generate content (after all, they're getting paid) and it would be silly to begrudge the various speculations about what Vlad's deal should look like, but let's set some boundaries:

Vlad's not going to get Soto money. Arguably Soto shouldn't have landed a $51m AAV, but I hope I don't need to go deep on why Vlad's not Soto. Notably though, Soto's fWAR is double Gurrero's with Vlad having 118 fewer games played. 

Second, no Vlad's not going to equal or approach Judge's $40 million AAV nor should he. When he signed Judge also had twice the accumulated fWAR as Vlad and in fewer games than Vlad has now, plus he's capable of an at least passable CF. It will be a longer deal and thus larger in total value, because Judge was going into his age 30 season. But not that much on AAV.

He shouldn't expect to surpass the present-day value of Shohei Ohtani (almost $438mm). Besides the obvious fact that he can't pitch, Ohtani had accumulated 19.5 fWAR as a hitter in 716 games compared to Vlad's 17 in 819 games. 

He will likely exceed Mookie Betts in total value and AAV even though Betts is pretty clearly a more valuable player. Betts got $365m in starting in 2021 on a 12 year deal which is an AAV a bit over $30m a year. Recent market inflation has made Betts' deal something of a bargain.

On the AAV front, Mike Trout comes in at a bit over 35.5 and Francisco Lindor is at 34.1 and coming in below these would give him as much as the 6th highest AAV, exceeding them would set him 4th.

Everyone seems to agree that you'll have to get to at least $400mm in all to get a signature, and it's fair to think that you don't have to pass Ohtani to be satisfied. In that range of 400-436 you can do a lot of creative variations depending on the number of years you are buying and whether you price in the 2025 salary. For example, if you price his actual free agent years at $36m x 11 years then add in this season's 28.5 you get 12 years total for 424.2 and an AAV just below Trout's. That's the 4th biggest contract ever and 5th highest AAV. 

I'm not predicting this per se, just using it as an example of the range they are probably discussing. It's impossible to know whether Vlad's team even cares about AAV but actually just has a goal for the total contract, for example, but it's fair to assume that the discussion exists in the 400-440 range and 12-13 years which the Jays are just going to have to accept. I assume that as the deadline looms, that you need to work out granular details about signing bonuses and opt-outs (I wouldn't be at all surprised if he has one at 5 or 6 years out) and maybe deferrals, but they have to be pretty close on the total value at this point. 

We'll know soon.