More Reflections on a Potential Vlad Deal.

In light of Shapiro's interview and because why not, I'ma do it again. IF they do make a deal that includes this season, 2025, Vlad's wanting 15 years (through his age 40 season) can work in their favor. If you start with $500 million in total value, which is a figure Vlad called his floor, and you make the last 4 seasons 20-20-15-15 (this is an off the cuff example) and round up the '25 salary to 30, that's $100m and leaves $400m over 10 in the middle.

The extended length makes the overall AAV 33.33 which is good for the Jays, in the peak years he'd get (and be worth, for all but one of them) $40m or more annually which should appeal to him, and his agent has to know that no other team is going to give him 15 years.

To illustrate in more detail, I'm going to steal the chart from Ben Nicholson-Smith's article that I've referenced before:

Here is a theoretical illustration of how such a deal might be structured:

30-36-42-45-45-45-45-40-40-36-30-22-20-12-12

What I'm doing here is minimizing the number of years that, if he produced more or less just what these projections suggest, that they would be noticeably underwater in terms of overpaying for that year's production. First, take note that BNS doesn't include 2025 on his chart but assuming he'll be worth $50m in '25 (using this formula) seems reasonable.

So to revise his chart and make it easier to follow...

Year	contract year	age	cost of 1 WAR	projected WAR	Value	proposed salary
2025	1	26	10	5	50	30
2026	2	27	10.3	5	51.5	36
2027	3	28	10.61	5	53.05	42
2028	4	29	10.93	4.5	49.17	45
2029	5	30	11.26	4.5	50.65	45
2030	6	31	11.59	4.5	52.17	45
2031	7	32	11.94	4	47.76	45
2032	8	33	12.3	3.5	43.05	40
2033	9	34	12.67	3	38	40
2034	10	35	13.05	2.5	32.62	36
2035	11	36	13.44	2	26.88	30
2036	12	37	13.84	2	27.68	22
2037	13	38	14.26	1.5	21.39	20
2038	14	39	14.69	1	14.69	12
2039	15	40	15.13	0.5	7.56	12

So that's surplus value for the first 8 years, and never more than $4 million underwater until the last year. In fact, if he underperformed this and only produced 4 WAR on average in years 2-6 he'd still not be underwater in the first 8 years. Of course it's not impossible to have a Prince Fielder situation but there's not really any way to pre-plan for that, it's the risk you take. Since I didn't include a totals line - that's 48.5 WAR, valued at $566.16 million, purchased for the low low price of $500 million.

Now, there's one more layer to this. Team payrolls 15 years ago were, in the top 12 spenders, at least $100m less than they are now (actual payroll, not CBT figures which wasn't a thing 15 years ago). The low spending teams don't inflate that much the mid-to large spenders do. If you project that forward then by the end of a 15 year deal the Jays payroll might easily be in the area of $350 million. In that context a $12m player is 3.4% of the payroll. For comparison, 3.4% of the 2025 payroll is almost $8.3m - Roughly what Dalton Varsho's making.

The point of all that is that if you structure the deal as I'm suggesting, Vlad's salary when he's nearing the end wouldn't be any sort of impediment to building a winning team. The whole gamble here is whether, in the main, he produces a career similar to what these generic projections would suggest. Think of it like this: if he is completely washed by 36 and gives you no value at all in the last four years, these projections still value him at roughly $495 million up to that point.

IF you - as the Blue Jays - have a value estimation system that produces generally similar projections to the publicly available Fangraphs system then it's not a massive risk to go to $500 million for that period of time unless you think he's gonna start crumbling before his mid-30s.

Aggregate Top Prospect List

  Every year for...a while now...one of the actual moments when I contribute, maybe, some value beyond just speculation is the aggregate list. I am obliged to wait on the respected outlets to publish which can vary the timing, and most years - like this one - I have to eventually give up on Fangraphs and figure them in when the eventually publish a Jays list. 

As always, I'm using a 30 point scale even though I'm using a list that only goes to 10 and another that only goes to 20, but you frankly can't construct a list worth writing about if you're only considering each lists' top 10. If you follow the team's prospect reporting you could probably name the top 10 vote getters off the top of your head, though the order might vary. What this means is that there are sharp drop off in points as players don't appear on the shorter lists but turn up on the longer ones. What I'm saying is that it's a terribly imperfect system, but whatchagonnado? At a minimum you can take note of which players are on more lists. 

Once the Fangraphs list drops (if as when) I'll recalculate. For now this is an aggregate of the Baseball Prospectus Top 10, the Athletic's Top 20 (KLaw), MLB Pipeline's newly published Top 30, Baseball America's Top 40, and Scott Mitchell's Top 50 for TSN. The Top 12 here appear on at least four of those lists so might fairly be considered the Top tier. I happen to be obsessive about round numbers so this list goes to 30, but that's only because the guys I want to include amount to more than 20 and I'm incapable of doing a "Top 23" or whatever. I'll mention where each of these will likely play in the upcoming season, assuming health and a couple of other notes, maybe, but I won't presume to including scouting info worked up by other professionals that you can find in the write-up of their lists. I'm not going to pretend to be that smart or hijack the work of others. So, with that said...

1. Arjun Nimmala (176 points) - there were no unanimous obvious #1 this year but I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one who got super-hyped about this guy. I'm not sure whether they start him back at Dunedin until it warms up but the bulk of the year he'll be at Vancouver unless he collapses. He's always going to be young for every level so there's no need to speed him through the system, at least not yet. Earliest Major league run, late 2027, easily could be 2028. Assigned to Vancouver for Opening Day.

2. Trey Yesavage (172) - Observers are pretty sure that he could hold his own at AA right now, but it's more likely that he'll go about six weeks (or roughly six starts) in Dunedin, another six in Vancouver and then head off to New Hampshire in early July. Whether or not he so dominates that he gets a taste of AAA in September remains to be seen but he might not be seriously tested until he hits AA. That track would have him as a candidate to force himself into the rotation in the second half of 2026 but a main contender to do so in the spring of '27.

3. Ricky Tiedemann (162) - He'd like to be back in real games late in the year, but if he got to, say, 20 IP that would be a win. Maybe he goes to the AFL if they think he could stand to build him up some more to platform for next spring. But given that his last challenge is refining his control, that particular concern isn't going to be fully resolved by Opening Day 2026 regardless. Best guess is that you should assume you're waiting until 2027 for him to have a full shot at the majors.

4. Orelvis Martinez (158) - if dude had a clear defensive position he'd very likely been the consensus #1. It's not crazy to say only Vlad has more power in the entire system - and it's kinda close. He's not as good an all around hitter but the power is legit. But as long as they don't know where they can play him - other than DH - there will be hesitation. As much as I've expressed the view "put him at DH and let him cook" - I don't think they will...yet. They'll give him about two months in Buffalo (watch where he gets the defensive reps) and see how things go for the major league squad. After that, it's all about the circumstances. Now that I think of it, I've never heard a scouting report explain why they never even thought about seeing how he handles the outfield - but there must be a reason. He'll likely get major league run before this season is over.

4. Jake Bloss (158) - I hang onto this as we get reports of him not hitting on all cylinders this spring after he got roughed up for Buffalo after the trade. The smart people think that he's really quite good. If healthy he'll be in Buffalo and as things stand now, when the Jays need someone not already on their roster to start some games for them, Bloss is (at least for now) the guy who'll get a shot. (Edit: well, not so much)

6. Josh Kasevich (142) - nominally behind Leo Jimenez on the depth chart because the latter is in his last option year and Kasavich doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until the next off-season, Kasevich is fully capable of playing an above average major league shortstop right now (as is Jimenez but perhaps has a little less arm). His bat took a step forward in the second half last year though lack of power still haunts him. He's said to be off the charts in all the things you want in a ballplayer that you cannot measure statistically. Given the roster consideration, it's fair to say that it's more likely you don't see him in a Blue Jays uniform until '26.

7. Kendrys Rojas (135) - he's going to be at AA and it may well test him at first but if he stays healthy and succeeds at this level you should be as excited about him as any of the SP above him. Expect him sometime in 2027.

8. Alan Roden (129) - if we used the phrase "with a bullet" for these lists it would be Roden it was applied to, Like Kasavich, off the charts in every intangible and unmeasurable part of his game - and surely the most intelligent player in the system if not arguably anywhere in the minors. He does everything on the field well (that you'd ask him to do) except max out his power potential and they're optimistic about that - after all he's said to be maybe the strongest player in the system. 

9. Will Wagner (123) - yes, also a tie, but Wagner is THIS close to losing his rookie eligibility and he will graduate possibly by the end of April (also why Jonatan Clase, despite being on some people's list, isn't here because he BARELY had enough active days to lose eligibility) and it seemed unfair to put him ahead of Roden given this circumstance. No reason to expect him to ever be back in the minors unless it's rehab.

Speaking of graduating, other young players besides Clase who are not yet established and are still "rookies" in all but the official sense who would likely be high on this list include Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

10. Khal Stephen (117) - I'll admit that I'm not yet fully sure how you pronounce that first name. I began thinking "Cal" but maybe it's "Call" but anyway - his model is going to look a lot like Yesavege except maybe somewhat slower. Something like two months at Dunedin, two at Vancouver, and two at New Hampshire until they find a level that challenges him. Then, if things go reasonable probably start back in AA next spring but spend most of that year in AAA. As I said, like Yesavege but a little behind him. Could be second half of '26 if needed, probably '27. He's been named Dunedin's Opening Day starter.

11. Johnny King (97) - a LOT of buzz around this guy, but he's a high school guy and almost always those start the year in the Complex and establish themselves before being considered to go across town to the DJays. Few there be that move beyond Florida in their first professional season.

12. Fernando Perez (93) - Regularly noted to be a guy who's a very good *pitcher* despite not as much "stuff" as the other guys here. Almost certain to spend the whole season in Vancouver and, if healthy, be on track to compete for a major league job in '28.

13. Landon Maroudis (88) - Recovering from the TJ brace procedure and targeted for a early-summer return to competition. Whether he gets out of Florida at all will depend on how quickly he gets his groove back. 

14. Adam Macko (83) - Yet another injury setback, not the arm or shoulder but the knee. When he gets game ready he'll surely try to build up his innings at AAA, but I confess I'm starting to get Nate Person vibes here (never allowed to gain momentum because of some weird health issue). 

15. Brandon Barriera (71) - saw some reporting (again, hit those original source sites for proper reports) that he looked in Spring last year like he had but his 2023 problems (reported out of shape and ended up dealing with multiple injuries) behind him. The buzz was back but then he got hurt early and also had TJ (I THINK the brace procedure also?) and so will still be rehabbing when the season starts. If he really learned his lesson and used this time to continue to refine the rest of his body, he might take off this year. But like Maroudis, seems unlikely to get out of Florida until 2026. Both of them would be on track for the back half of '28 or so for MLB debuts.

16. Charles McAdoo (58) - Didn't hit as well after the trade, and not entirely locked into a position, I suspect he'll start the year at AA. Another factor on that is that there's not going to be a ton of at bats available in Buffalo at least early on. How fast he comes is harder to predict than some of those mentioned above.

17. RJ Schreck (55) - A solid case can be made that he should break camp in Buffalo. But depending on who gets squeezed off of the major league roster there might not be the at bats there for him just yet. For example, there's a solid chance that the regular starting outfield would be Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase, and Joey Loperfido, and Will Robertson is still here trying to scratch out some playing time. Until injuries or poor performance changes the situation, if they want him to play it will be at AA to start. (this is also a factor with McAdoo).

17. Sean Keyes (55) - College hitter, showed well in Florida, power-over-contact guy. Assigned to Vancouver to start the year. Kinda early to know how his career progresses. They'll be looking to see if he can stick at 3B through the system.

19. Juaron Watts-Brown (50) - My guess is they want to see him consolidate a bit in Vancouver early on and hope he earns a promotion to AA early-mid summer. The uncertainty over whether he eventually moves to relief makes a major league ETA pure guesswork. 

19. Adrian Pinto (40) - An Altuve type physically, an injury history that defies description, a bit of crowding in AA might slow his promotion schedule but if injuries don't sidetrack another season he'll surely finish there.

20. Chris Polonco (38) - this year's premium international FA signing, like all those before him he'll get his professional start in the DSL.

21. Angel Bastardo (36) - I'm a skeptic about his control, but the Rule 5 pick will spend most if not all of this season recovering from elbow surgery so he'll have to try and prove me wrong in '26 - if he can stick on the major league roster. He might return late in the season but I'm not certain they'll want to carry a recovering rookie in the major league 'pen while making a playoff push.

22. Jonatan Clase (34) - likely be a good bit higher but the sources can't seem to get on the same page about rookie eligibility. BA thinks he's eligible, Pipeline doesn't. The rule, which apparently hasn't been updated to reflect the fact that rosters no longer blow up in September, says 45 days on the active major league roster (which he has) but not to include days after September 1 (which would drop him back below the line). I do wish they would get it together on this. Meanwhile, get you some tickets to head down to Buffalo (seriously, it's not impossible that they could field a legit potential major leaguer at every spot in the order - other than catcher - on any given night). Strong chance he breaks through this season.

23. Eddinson Paulino (33) - After the trade he was assigned to AA and only got into four games due to injuries. The versatile infielder likely starts back there just to consolidate a bit and let the organization watch him play up close, particularly as the primary SS (for which he's the most appealing candidate). With at least two highly regarded SS between him and Toronto, he'd have to show out to spent a lot of time in AAA this year but that doesn't mean there's nothing here.

24. Ryan Jennings (31) - There are some half dozen or so of these guys about which one might fairly say (based on reporting) "the organization seems to love this guy" - Jennings has become one of them. Most observers think he could (at least) hold his own in a major league  'pen right now but the team has so far mostly brought him along as a starter, until he came back from over a month on the IL last August and pitched out of the New Hampshire bullpen. Given he only accumulated 10 IP in AA, one assumes he'll start back there - and how soon he progresses depends on his role. 

25. Jace Bohrofen (29) - A huge August in Vancouver seems to line him up for a AA assignment this spring. There's significant OF depth in front on him so there's no reason to expect fast movement unless he's an absolute beast. 

26. Emmanuel Bonilla (24) - He started his year last season in the complex and did fine work, for a time - then he went off a cliff to an astonishing degree. He'll need to reset back on the same level unless he really impresses decision makers this spring. If he gets back on track then some significant portion of the year will be with the D-Jays. Still, even with steady progress it could easily be 2030 before he's thought to be ready for a major league shot. And of course, things could always go not-well.

27. Carson Messina (17) - Just go back and review what I said about King. Basically same thing applies here. The two given the Jays the potential of four legit prospects for the rotation arriving towards the end of the decade.

28. Victor Arias (14) - he only got 11 games at Vancouver late last season, decent chance he spends all of '25 back there though he has the potential to break-out and force a AA shot. Conservatively, 2028 would be a good ETA guess.

29. Mason Fluharty (12) - Would have a fairly solid shot at pitching in the majors this year if injuries open a path (there's hardly anyone in the likely major league 'pen that's optionable other than Brenden Little. He's not a sure thing though). Just note him as a AAA guy waiting for his shot (yes, I spent a lot of time believing in Eisert and Danner but there's a lot more noise around this guy).

30. Payton Williams (11) - Seems ready for AA. The best 1B in the system not named Vlad. You look at him and think "Rowdy" but the reports on his defense are much better. Probably a legit contender to make the majors beginning in '27.

30. Sam Shaw (11) - The guy who's probably situated to play the most innings at SS in Dunedin after the advancement of Nimmala, but he's listed as an OF so maybe they gave up on that already?. Got this spot entirely because Kieth Law ranked him 20th.

I will probably do some follow-ups that list positional depth for players with a reasonable shot at eventually playing in the majors in terms of their eventual arrival. Obviously not all of them will ever make it, or at least not in Toronto, but there are (not counting reliever because, ya know, who really knows?) 40-50 guys in the system that might actually make it.  Not that they all WILL, but any given one COULD. 

On the Come Up

 Originally the title was "Four on the Come Up" but eventually I decided I was unnecessarily slighting at least one other. But adding others just makes the point stronger so here we go.

There are two forces at work with the 2025 Blue Jays that are in some tension. The one everyone talks about is the addition of veterans from outside the organization in order to maximize their chances in a year that might be the end of the Vlad/Bo era. It's not a wrong or poor choice to do so but the natural result of that is having seven of the nine spots in most batting orders accounted for. Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Santander, etc are going to be out there - barring injury - in the vast majority of games (and STILL the commentators muse occasionally about being "one bat short"). Third base and, kinda, DH are the only two places where there's some flexibility.

And yet, there are 4-5 young, not yet established, players that in an ideal world you'd really like to see blossom into legit contributors this year. Let me elaborate.

Addison Barger - some observers seem to be acting like Ernie Clement is that natural incumbent at 3B because he got so many starts last year and played very good defense there. But he doesn't have an offensive profile that screams "every day starter on a contending team." His game plays up a lot better coming off of the bench. Barger has the best natural claim to the right to make his case to own the job. He's a steadier defender, insofar as we've been told, than Martinez, has a cannon for an arm while Wagner's is short for the position, and has a power and on-base upside far beyond anything reasonable to expect of Clement. If he can approximate his minor league performance in the majors, he'd insert a very valuable lefty bat into the middle of their order. In 153 AAA games he hit 41 doubles and 21 homers with a .372 OBP. If for some reason (noted below) they choose differently for 3B, there would be a strong case for Springer and Santander soaking up a lot of DH at bats while Barger plays RF.

Orelvis Martinez - Everyone interest in Blue Jays prospects at even a causal level knows this guy is a legit 30+ homer guy whose power comes easy. Buzz is that he's already showing evidence of adding the needed polish to his overall offensive game with better plate discipline and bat control. Reservations exist about his defensive position, but it seems some in and around the org are coming around to a point I've been making for a couple of years - who cares about the glove, let him DH and watch the young man cook. If you think you need to prepare for Vlad to leave, don't daydream about Alonso or someone - let Mattingly school Orelvis at 1B as a plan B. Of course, there's a non-zero chance that he'll show enough consistency at 3B to win that job, which is fine if they find a way to make sure Barger gets plenty of run. In this sense (and some of these other scenarios) what would open doors is the return of George Springer's tendency to spend some time injured. Not to wish harm on him or anyone but were I a gambler I feel pretty good about a bet that both these young men will produce more offense than Springer in 2025. But the team will be slow to reduce his playing time if he's healthy.

Will Wagner - this is the trickiest situation on the list because the team seems convinced that he'll be an important part of this team but there's no clean fit anywhere. He's played a little 3B but that arm, his best position is 2B but that's no longer an option. He can spell Vlad at 1B but that's not all that many at bats. He could DH but then Vlad or Barger would have to sit. You could, with a major league coaching staff, engineer an optimization plan that would have Barger at 3B or RF against MOST RHP, Wagner at DH (except when occasionally spelling Vlad) against most RHP Martinez at DH or 3B (depending on how heavy the defensive demand will be that day at 3B) against virtually every LHP as well as DH when Wagner is playing 1B and 3B when Barger is in the OF while an outfielder is the DH. For someone like me it would be very complex because it turns on a lot of things (like whether you're facing a fly ball hitting team or your SP allows a lot of grounders to the left side on any given day) but you COULD maybe split the at bats of two positions among three guys here and not let any of them rust too much.

Alan Roden - by now you've seen all the hype, and heard Ross call him by name as someone to watch ad I agree. He's got a lot of skills to bring to the team, particularly as a lead-off hitter, but what he doesn't have is an obvious position on the major league team. Again, barring injury. The kid isn't going to be your DH, the three outfield spots are filled by veterans and if all goes well are adequately covered when one needs to sit or DH. A player like Roden NEEDS to be getting his reps in and so he will (barring injury) - in AAA. For a while. By June, if Springer's not making a noticeable comeback, both he and the organization are going to have to accept that it's a stronger team with him on the bench. And if they're not winning a lot more games than many expect, they can't wait around past mid-season to pull that unappealing trigger. Maybe at that point the recall Roden. But having all four of these guys trying to get regular playing time this year is still going to be a heck of a challenge and you don't want to hobble any of them by not getting them enough work to get in a groove.

Joey Loperfido - I believe in this guy more than most and even I sometimes forget to include him in these speculations. He could maybe start at AAA and be told to "go down there and force us to promote you" or they could accept that his opportunities will be spotty but decide to carry him as a backup because he can play CF (where either Barger or Roden would be pressed). I don't exactly see how he gets a chance to lay claim to a position as his own unless (a) something bad happens to/with Springer AND Roden isn't rolling hot in AAA at the time he might have otherwise been called. But that doesn't mean I don't respect his upside, it's just a roster construction issue.

My point is, I want to believe that every one of these players can and may very likely will surpass what has been projected from them - that would be a very exciting aspect of a successful season. But the just won't all fit. Some of these guys are going to need run that they won't find available in the majors this year. And that sucks a bit IMO. And in all this I haven't said anything about Davis Schneider, or Nathan Lukes, or Leo Jiminez, or John Kasavich, or Jonatan Clase. Because for one reason or another, in my judgement, they are all behind the guys I listed above. 

And if Vlad and Bo do get away, as painful as that would be, maybe the near-term future isn't going to be the dark valley so many seem to assume.

Why is No One Talking About This?

 To be fair, there's a level on which I already know the answer. But still, commentators and staff around any team regularly speculate and spitball about "out of the box" ideas, yet I've seen/heard basically nothing about an idea that seems fairly obvious to me.

Going into the off-season there was a widely held view that among the positions that were in some sense available to be used to upgrade the team - 3B, 2B, LF, DH - the one with the best internal solution was 2B because the organization seemed pretty high on getting Will Wagner's bat into the lineup. But since the Andrés Giménez acquisition that got a lot more cloudy. If you want Wagner in the lineup, where does he play? They're now, belatedly, mumbling about giving him a look at 3B (where he has played some in the minors but word is the arm will be short for that) or even a lot of reps at DH (not ideal for a 26 year old, and not an option when you want one of your corner outfielders to get a half-day off) or, even worse, putting him at 1B and Vlad at DH (all the best of luck in THAT making him feel better about re-signing).

Less discussed but at least mentioned is the idea of moving Vlad to third (which he would love and might move the needle in terms of getting him signed) and playing Wagner at 1B - but most of the metrics aren't liking him much by now as a first baseman so it's difficult to believe that they'd give very many 3B reps to Vlad this year, and less easy to believe they would have some plan to do that which wasn't buzzing around Dunedin by now. But there IS another option.

I'll say this up-front, from an "intangible" point of view, this would have to have the player involved out in front saying "It's all good, anything for the team" and be sincere about it. Look at George Springer this week - Not lead-off? Okay. Left field some? Fine, whatever they think makes us stronger" - or words to that effect. If you don't have that, you create the potential for bad blood and resentment which washes out whatever you might have gained.

What am I talking about? Bo Bichette at third base. I know, I know, Bo's been pretty vocal about "I'm a shortstop" and discouraging the idea of any position change, but better shortstops than him - some significantly so - changed positions for the good of the team and in so doing proved they could be good at more than one position. From a business perspective (as a player), it's good for your next contract. Bo's team ought to consider, if your market is winning teams willing to, in theory, give you over $20 million a year - almost all of them already HAVE a highly paid SS or a young one they believe in. Being willing to play some other position maximizes the chance of a bigger contract.

If Bo is willing to contentedly play 3B (he can't really afford to get twisted up because he's got to feel focused in the batter's box or there's no big contract) then Giménez slides to SS (improving the defense outcome at the most important position on the field) and Wagner plugs in at 2B. Problem solved. 

I've been a defender of and advocate for Martinez and Barger in particular along with Loperfido and the other younger players that are on the margins of the roster but this - analytically, on-paper - SEEMS like a pretty obvious way to stabilize the lineup. With the DH slot still in play there's opportunities for those other guys to get some reps but I feel like there's a lot of value in having an "everyday" group of at least 8 out of 9 spots.

So why is it NEVER mentioned? I get that the team might be on eggshells a bit about giving Bo a new reason to want to leave, but if they offered him, say, a six-year deal are they really prepared to commit to him as your SS for the next six years? If not that's a bridge you're gonna have to cross at some point.

But even so, none of that keeps the beat writers and radio hosts and what not from mulling the option. Let's talk about it.

Briefly RE Vlad's deal

 Briefly? When have I ever?

Anyway, all the beat guys have to generate content (after all, they're getting paid) and it would be silly to begrudge the various speculations about what Vlad's deal should look like, but let's set some boundaries:

Vlad's not going to get Soto money. Arguably Soto shouldn't have landed a $51m AAV, but I hope I don't need to go deep on why Vlad's not Soto. Notably though, Soto's fWAR is double Gurrero's with Vlad having 118 fewer games played. 

Second, no Vlad's not going to equal or approach Judge's $40 million AAV nor should he. When he signed Judge also had twice the accumulated fWAR as Vlad and in fewer games than Vlad has now, plus he's capable of an at least passable CF. It will be a longer deal and thus larger in total value, because Judge was going into his age 30 season. But not that much on AAV.

He shouldn't expect to surpass the present-day value of Shohei Ohtani (almost $438mm). Besides the obvious fact that he can't pitch, Ohtani had accumulated 19.5 fWAR as a hitter in 716 games compared to Vlad's 17 in 819 games. 

He will likely exceed Mookie Betts in total value and AAV even though Betts is pretty clearly a more valuable player. Betts got $365m in starting in 2021 on a 12 year deal which is an AAV a bit over $30m a year. Recent market inflation has made Betts' deal something of a bargain.

On the AAV front, Mike Trout comes in at a bit over 35.5 and Francisco Lindor is at 34.1 and coming in below these would give him as much as the 6th highest AAV, exceeding them would set him 4th.

Everyone seems to agree that you'll have to get to at least $400mm in all to get a signature, and it's fair to think that you don't have to pass Ohtani to be satisfied. In that range of 400-436 you can do a lot of creative variations depending on the number of years you are buying and whether you price in the 2025 salary. For example, if you price his actual free agent years at $36m x 11 years then add in this season's 28.5 you get 12 years total for 424.2 and an AAV just below Trout's. That's the 4th biggest contract ever and 5th highest AAV. 

I'm not predicting this per se, just using it as an example of the range they are probably discussing. It's impossible to know whether Vlad's team even cares about AAV but actually just has a goal for the total contract, for example, but it's fair to assume that the discussion exists in the 400-440 range and 12-13 years which the Jays are just going to have to accept. I assume that as the deadline looms, that you need to work out granular details about signing bonuses and opt-outs (I wouldn't be at all surprised if he has one at 5 or 6 years out) and maybe deferrals, but they have to be pretty close on the total value at this point. 

We'll know soon. 

Lineup Musings

 Maybe this is sort of an outdated mentality. Maybe there's a bunch of papers out there that detail why this is really no big thing. Maybe the team knows things that I don't (I mean, of course they do but I mean specific to this issue I want to speculate about) but short of speculating over Vad's eventual contract there's not that much else to discuss.

My concern is the line-up, specifically to the lead-off spot and the presumed interest in not staking up your lefties. It's a fine group of players, position by position, but as an offensive lineup, the pieces don't fit quite as well as you'd think they should.

Out of the 13 roster spots that go to hitters, eight of them WILL be on the roster pending health (yes, Varsho won't be ready opening day so it's actually seven - I'll get back to that) because of contract or role. Additionally, one spot goes to the reserve catcher and one goes to the guy who gets the CF job until Varsho returns and the team seems REALLY impressed with Wagner so while not a lock, he's got a tight grip on a spot. So that's 10 of the 13. Even if you assume Clement is the default 3B (I don't) then you should assume that one of those three spots is another infielder since Clement's greatest value is to be the backup for the middle infielders so you either need someone like Jiminez for that, or someone like Barger or Martinez to play 3B. Of the other two, one will need to be a flexible reserve outfielder and the last spot could go any of several ways.

But out of this crowd, very few are a reasonable candidate to lead-off who gets that job is relevant to how you order the rest...and the elephant in that particular room is George Springer. One thing you want the first hitter to do is get on base. Last season, while he still gave you a fair rate of XBH his OBP was .303 which is... not ideal. In my view, and that of many others, he needs to hit in the bottom third of the order (if he's in the lineup that day at all) but it's a sticky wicket to tell your veteran star who's still owed $45m that this is what he's come to. I fear that the team will, at least to start the year, keep him in the spot and hope against hope for an unlikely revival from his bat. To be clear, I'm not saying he won't maybe be BETTER than last year, but enough better to be a valuable lead-off? That seems a lot less likely.

In the meantime, let's set that aside and discuss alternatives. Another thing you'd like to have up top is speed. The player that most clearly brings that skill is Andrés Giménez. Except his OBP last season was .298. On the other hand, he's nine years younger and that should mean he's got a better chance of recovering some measure of past success than Springer does. With both of these Spring Training will tell the team (if not us) a lot. 

If the team really is in love with Will Wagner, you'd think he might be in play here, particularly if they think he can be the primary 3B. Hs OBP was .337, and his total in 83 games at AAA is .445 - over his entire professional career it's 390 so there's promise there. They might even use him, though it's uncommon for a player in his 20's that's not a big power bat, as a sort of defacto regular DH (which would create an issue on the days you want Santander to DH) just to get his bat in the lineup. if you want Springer to DH, Wagner could at least play 3B on that day, same with Santander. Assuming he plays an acceptable third.

Beyond that there are contingencies that are even less cut & dried. For example, if you give Nathan Lukes the run he deserves in Varsho's CF, he's been a high OBP guy his whole career and a good baserunner. Can't be certain how he'd hold up over an extended run in the majors and I'm skeptical they'd throw an over-age rookie in as a lead-off hitter but I'd spend a lot of time this spring evaluating the possibility.

If Joey Loperfido could carry over his minor league production to the majors, he'd be in the conversation. In the minors he had a .377 OBP and stole 69 bases in 290 games, plus he has quite a bit more pop than Lukes. But his major league work so far has certainly not demanded the team throw him into that kind of role. You'd have to think he'd need to prove something first.

Similarly, Addison Barger improved his OBP at every level as he moved through the minors, including .391 at Buffalo last season. But rightly or wrongly he's viewed more as a guy with a power stroke than an on-base guy and would have to provide a lot of major league proof before being seen as a top-of-the-order option. Plus, he'd have to win a regular role on the team in order to get that run. It's very possible that both Barger and Wagner make the team but with some uncertainty about how they plug into the lineup every day. 

The common thread for all these "not Springer" guys the bat left handed. In one sense, it's a plus to put a lefty ahead of Bo-Vlad-Santander but the downside is that the #9 hitter - unless it's Springer and I'm not holding my breath on THAT - will also be a lefty and you'll have to do some tricky things to keep from stacking most of your lefties in too-close proximity. An example:

Wagner - 3B
Bo
Vlad
Santander
Barger - RF
Springer - DH
Varsho/Loperfido/Lukes
Kirk
Giménez

After the first at-bat, you'll have Kirk as the only RH in a string of four batters. That's not horrific but it's imperfect. Worse, you have the team's slowest guy batting right in front of the team's fastest guy. Also not ideal. But I'd not be completely down on this. I won't go through every potential variant here, You can play some with the possibilities if you like. But I do need to make two additional notes. If, somehow, they still end up signing Bregman the most obvious arrangement is probably 

Bo
Vlad
Bregman
Santander

and the rest to be sorted out. The other note is that there a notable possibility that Orelvis (a RH hitter) storms ST and wins a job based on his bat (DH or 3B) and that would make at-bats less readily available to Barger and Wagner. 

I still say a lot of this turns on how coldly calculating they will be when it comes to Springer if he's looking old again in the coming months. 

Edited to add: it occurs to me that in all these discussions I almost never mention Davis Schneider. It's not so much that I don't think he'll make the team, he seems to have the strongest case for the 13th spot within the context of everything else we know, but I don't see how he gets into the starting lineup regularly unless he parties like it's 2023. Rather, he will have the period of time that Varsho is on the IL to secure his status. At that point, barring a different injury, one of the younger players is off to Buffalo and he may or may not be the one. 

Starters via Trade?

 What if the remaining FA starters worth having signed elsewhere? Scherzer wants a winner (Mets?), Flaherty gets his wish to return to Detroit, and so forth. It feels like the folks covering the team aren't hearing, or speculating, enough about potential trades. To an extent, that's understandable since Ross Atkins has been loath to dip into his shallow pool of coveted (or at least somewhat appealing) assets this winter. Still, not EVERY option is going to blow a hole in the remaining prospect list.

There are two who are reportedly at least somewhat available, for the right price, who would. Dylan Cease is far and away the best option left but if the Padres got serious about that, there are multiple teams (Detroit, Boston, Baltimore, the Mets, the Cubs, even Cincinnati) who could steamroll any offer the Jays would make. Luis Castillo isn't quite on that tier but come with multiple years under contract and one would similarly assume that Toronto wouldn't be able to field the best offer (though they should of course confirm that and not just assume).

But beyond those, there are interesting options who, while not top tier, could be as useful to the team as someone like Nick Pivetta or Jose Quintina.  Take the Dodgers for example. Their projected rotation now includes Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Roki Sasaki, Shohei Ohtani, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Gavin Stone. Plus Tony Goslin and Dustin May coming back from losing a year to elbow surgery, PLUS Clayton Kershaw is in "please call me bro" mode. Beyond that incredible depth there's River Ryan, Landon Knack, and Bobby Miller. Admittedly Miller fell apart last year but how hard could it be to pry lose one of those depth options? Imagine, say, gambling on the recovery of Goslin (who has two years of control) or May and winning? Short of that, scoring River Ryan would be a coup. [Edit: Not that it matters any more, but I just learned Ryan is injured and likely out for the season.]

But let me move beyond complete speculation to somewhat more informed spitballing. There are some guys out there who are known to be available salary dumps. Perhaps most notoriously, Jordan Montgomery. If the Jays were willing to absorb his whole contract they could acquire Montgomery for practically nothing before sunset. Should they? Over the course of '21-'23 he had a 3.48 ERA, a 120 ERA+, and a 3.62 FIP. And not all of that can be dismissed as "sticky stuff". I'm not finding a ton of deep-dives into what went wrong last year, but this has some good points. The question here is now much of the deal do you need Arizona to eat in order to find an agreement. His contract is for $22.5 million and it seems really unlikely any team is going to soak up that whole obligation. But if you could get it down to, say, 16 and that didn't cost you too much in prospect balance? I'd take a one year risk on him over giving  Pivetta three.

Then there's Marcus Stroman. Stroman also had a 120 ERA+ over the three seasons previous to 2024, a 3.45 ERA and a 3.60 FIP. Which is almost identical to Montgomery, and his fall-off wasn't as dramatic as Mongomery's (although their FIP was similar). Moreover his contract is for a marginally more modest $18.5 million - albeit with an $18 million player option. On the other hand, the decline doesn't have as many ready explanations as Montgomery's does. Still, if the Yankees just want to move on and don't expect a big return, there's some appeal here, even more so if they'll nibble a few million off of it. The risk, of course, is if he's really in age decline and he pitches poorly enough to exercise the option.

The Cardinals are looking to shed payroll are constrained by their most appealing trade chips holding no-trade protections that they won't waive. Miles Mikolas has a big contract (relative to his production) but is in decline and would be a bad idea. Next in line is Steven Matz. The one-time Blue Jays is an interesting case. He parlayed his strong '21 for the Jays into a four-year contract with the Cardinals that has been marred by injuries and inconsistency. But take a closer look. In '22 his ERA was 5.25 but his FIP was 3.78, almost identical to his FIP the previous year for the Jays. In '23 it was 3.75 (alongside an ERA of 3.86). In '24 his strikeout rate dropped off and his ERA (and FIP) went up. He's under contract for $12.5 million which is, in the current market, a minor bargain if he's not washed. And if he's healthy enough to get at least 20-25 starts.

The Cards also have Erikc Feede under contract for $7.5 million but that's so relatively little that their (professed) money woes would have to be severe for them to trade him (albeit he was never particularly good before '24 so there is some risk) and if they did you have to think other contenders could be more persuasive in terms of return. 

There was some speculation that the Twins might want to shave Chris Paddack off of their payroll, but he also is making only $7.5 million so it wouldn't seem to be a matter of desperation. One way to approach it might be to offer to take Christian Vasquez's $10 million contract if you can get Paddock for minimal prospect return. Vasquez is well overpaid and hasn't been a good hitter for the last two years, but neither is Heinemann and he at least has a great defensive reputation. Paddock missed most of '22 and '23 to injury and eventually Tommy John surgery and was below average last season. as he delt with fatigue in his throwing arm (among other things) in his first full season back (which wasn't a full season, he got 17 starts). He's never lived up to the promise of his rookie year but if you REALLY thought there was something there, maybe you talk yourself into it?

Anyway, depending on the return and the cost, I would be pretty placid about any of Montgomery, Stroman, or Matz. But seriously, let's have a lot of discussions with the Dodgers.

I Stand Corrected: Making Sense of the Implications

 So. As it turns out I've been misleading myself the whole off-season. As Joshua Howsam pointed out to me, my conviction that the Jays would not go past CBT+40 because of the draft penalty was misplaced. The reason for that is that the CBT figure is calculated AFTER the season (as witnessed by the Jays having gotten under the line for 2024 with midseason trades) therefore any draft penalty would happen in 2026, not this year when they have a high pick. This realization re-sets a lot of the speculation I'd been voicing.

Even though it's not yet reflected on Roster Resource because the fine specifics have not yet been published, the current reporting is that the Santander deal defers over $30 million and results in an AAV (for the CBT) of something like $14 million. So reducing the RR total by $4.5 million puts them at a tick over $258 million. The CBA increases the tax penalty at +20, +40, etc over the first threshold of 241 million. So literally any other acquisition puts them over the 2nd tier threshold and some of the speculated pursuits which remain would likely put them over the third tier threshold.

Also, in a somewhat surprising revelation, Shi Davidi reports (presumably based on a team source) that since Myles Straw isn't on the 40 man roster, his bloated contract doesn't count towards the CBT total. Which means it would take a pretty extreme circumstance for him to ever play a game for the Blue Jays. 

Still, the implications of this week's reporting changes what I'd assumed about future spending. I'm still skeptical about Alonso and I'm basically just going to forget about Bregman, however the SP discussion gets a lot more interesting. Ben Nicholson-Smith is under the impression that Max Scherzer is their primary target for the rotation, which is... fine...I guess... in that you don't have to go longer term and maybe you get him for a contract sorta like what Verlander got, with a high risk of health problems. But if that doesn't work out, the two names that are still high on the FA lists are Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. For me, between the two, I'd rather chase Flaherty. 

Pivetta is, basically, a slightly above average guy (on results, there are still those who believe there's upside but he's 32) who's been pretty consistent since the short season. Flaherty MIGHT have medical questions, but he's three years younger and when he's on has gotten better results. If you have to invest 3-4 years in one of them, I'd pay the extra to get Flaherty if his medicals are okay. Of course, they're running out of opportunities for the group of young players if they add another hitter, so it's impossible to rule out a trade. If you can get Luis Castillo, for example, you consider it although Ross has been averse to trading young guys or prospects (for good reason). 

So back to the lineup. If you look at current in-house roster, the lineup looks kinda like this:

1.
2. Bichette 
3.Guerrero
4. Santander
5.
6. Kirk
7.Varsho
8. Springer
9. Gimenez

There's not an ideal lead-off hitter on the team, and 3B is at this point a contest among young players. It seems like third is Barger v. Martinez v. Wagner and whoever wins that would fill 3B and the other outfielder/DH would involve those same guys in some sense with Loperfido and Schneider also options. If you had, for example, Wagner at 3B and Martinez to some degree as a DH, then you can plug them into (respectively) those two lineup spots I left open above. This is obviously the "if they don't sign (or trade for) anyone else" scenario.

But they seem to be set on more additions based on reporting and Atkin's comments at the presser. If they add another hitter (speculation to follow) then suddenly you're in a position in which Barger, Martinez, Wagner, Loperfido, Schneider, Lukes (not a kid but deserves some opportunity) and eventually Clase and Roden are all in the mix for limited bench work and MAYBE one regular spot open in the lineup. That's not the best use of resources. You'd tend to think "well, makes a couple of trades" but who can predict such things.

As for free agent acquisitions, you have maybe four options. Pete Alonso, whom everyone but me seems to think would be a great idea. I'm only interested here if it's very short and tempts him to opt out after this season and he's willing to get the lion's share of starts at DH. Alex Bregman who actually does fit the roster better than Alonso, if you could get him to structure a deal kinda like Santander's that's kinda front-loaded and with an opt-out it would be a win-win in that he'd lose the burden of the QO and get back in the market if he wants, or he's solved your 3B situation for the next five years. Yet there's almost no buzz connecting him to Toronto. Jurickson Profar has been mentioned, and if you're getting a guy who's similar to 2024 that would be great, and cheaper than the previously mentioned - but he's never been that guy before and the even-numbered years thing is scary. That said, if you sign him for 10 or 12 million and he flops, there's several younger guys who'd get a newfound opportunity to surpass him. Finally there's infielder Ha-Seoung Kim, who doesn't have the power profile but, like Profar, would make sense for the leadoff spot. Like Profar you can probably sign him for something around half of what Alonso or Bregman will cost.

So to game it out a bit: Sign Bregman and you can forget about any of the kids being a good 3B, Martinez might blossom as a DH, as might Barger as an OF/DH (don't sleep on Barger, his production and OBP in the minors deserves respect) and Wagner is...a better Biggio? Assuming they aren't involved in a trade of course; Sign Kim and he'd be your 3B (and more insurance against Bo leaving) with the same implications I just described for the youth;  Sign Alonso and you potentially crowd DH with veterans including Guerrero, Springer, and Santander but you make it less likely any young player gets some run in the outfield (barring the benching of Springer which I'm for but they won't) and the only room for the young players is at 3B; sign Profar and he, Santander, and Springer can be rotated through DH and 3B is in play in this scenario as well. 

Payroll? if they are, as it seems, sitting at roughly 258 now, adding Scherzer gets you to maybe 275 and either Alonso or Bregman is in the ballpark of a $300 million total. Add Flaherty/Pivetta instead and that's maybe $280 million and so you shift to Profar or Kim and still have room to sign Danny Coulombe (yes, I still have a mild fixation on him) and likewise end up at roughly $300 million.

Who the heck really knows? Yet again, there's also the non-zero possibility of trades. Gamble on Luis Robert, Jr bouncing back? I would if the White Sox would deal him. A known good add in Castillo at considerable cost in players going the other way? Take on a risk by bringing back Steven Matz (the Cards would love to shed his contract and thus the return should be minimal)? That last is a thing you only do after all the FA guys you want come off the market though.

My main conclusion is that I can't possibly have a conclusion. Feels like we'll have a lot of news to digest over the next 7-8 weeks. But it feels like Flaherty/Profar/Coulombe fits what they want to do. 

Jays' Rotations of the Future

Welp. Alas. Bitter dregs.

I can't imagine anything I can say about the utterly boring, predictable, tedious, news that the Dodgers have, again, added a star and they didn't even need to throw around big stinking piles of money to do so. It's crappy for the sport as a whole but I don't really know that there's anything for it. It's too early for my brain to reckon with "so what now?" type of speculation so let me go off on a different tangent. This was rattling around in my brain as a "counting sheep" type exercise last night.

Anyone who's follows the Baseball America annual Top Prospects lists knows that they do this little feature where they project a team's roster out several years based on who's in the system in the present. It's basically never particularly accurate because their are far too many variables to account for. But still, it's a tempting exercise, and what's on my mind is that - Sasaki's absence being what it is - there's a possibility that the Jays are not as bereft of SP options as the general narrative implies.

In terms of the current group, they control Jose Berrios for 2 more seasons, or 4 if he doesn't opt out (which I think there's a fair chance he won't). Kevin Gausman for 2 more, Chris Bassitt for 1, Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez for 3 and Bowden Francis for six. If we assume no further additions (which seems unlikely but this is a thought exercise) then it is rational to think that the 2026 rotation looks like this:
Gausman
Berrios
Manoah
Francis
Rodriguez

But that's not the fascinating part. Here's the potential 2026 AAA rotation:
Jake Bloss - already had a full year here in '25
Ricky Tiedemann - coming back from TJ
Trey Yesavage - having barnstormed the others levels in '25
Adam Macko - also repeating the level
Kendry Rojas - newly arrived from AA (maybe)

That's basically all but one of the team's SP prospects in their Top 10 (depending on how you view Fernando Perez). At AA there will be Perez along with, likely, Khal Stephens.

So even if you - or the Jays - think Rodriguez would be better in the bullpen, there's multiple options to fill that spot. More to the point, you could do that AND lose Gausman and Berrios and (barring more injuries between now and then) have a choice of top prospects to step in. And three of them have been in or near the 100 Top Prospects list.

Now yes, it's not ideal to turn 2 or 3 spots in your rotation to rookies, but it's not necessarily an issue either, at least not like it would be if Lazaro Estrada (whom I like) was your best option,

I kinda like it when the up-and-coming players get a chance to have some run.

The Remaining Big Three

 The prevailing theory is that the Blue Jays are more or less forced to add a power hitting bat this off-season (while I ask out loud "what if that offense could come from Orelvis Martinez?" and maintain my opinion that I don't think they actually do have no choice but to make a big signing) and if that's true, we seem to be down to three free agent options. There are a couple of other quality hitters but if we're controlling for power specifically, there are three: Pete Alonso, Anthoney Santander, and Alex Bregman. 

Yes, I think it's a correct assessment that they really should get Vlad signed first to appeal to these guys and I further stand by my previous writing that $400 million is NOT an unreasonable neighborhood to play in. We already know the AAV has to be in the 30's - given his new arb-avoiding contract is for $28.5mm - so it seems like the main discussion comes down to years. For example, 33.33 AAV for 12 years is 400 and there's no reason to not do that. But I digress.

So, in the interest of having something to write about, it's worth a little effort to look at how the compare both in the abstract and as a fit the team's openings and needs. It's well established that, barring some significant surprise (like eating the rest of Springer's deal and releasing him, or trading Vlad) there are three openings to add offense - Left Field, Third Base, and Designated Hitter. These happen to align, more or less, with the three hitters in question. So the first order of business is to see whether there's a standout argument for any of them as a clearly better hitter than the others.

Here are some numbers from Baseball Reference. These are specifically drawn from the last three years for each.

Alonso: 131 OPS+, .826 OPS, 41 HR/162, 10.1 oWAR
Bregman: 124 OPS+, .798 OPS, 26 HR/162, 12.9 oWAR
Santander: 125 OPS+, .795 OPS, 37 HR/a62, 9.4 oWAR

From Fangraphs:
Alonso: 128 wRC+, .350 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 22.1 K%, 8.7 WAR
Bregman: 127 wRC+, .347 wOBA, 11.1 BB%, 12.4 K%, 14 WAR
Santander: 124 wRC+, .340 wOBA, 8.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 8.3 WAR

Obviously Bregman is getting a significant boost in fWAR from his defense which I don't know how to filter out except to cite their offense numbers which go 60.1 for Alonso, 52.6 for Bregman and 48.5 for Santander. Also the progression year-to-year for Santander is essentially the inverse of Alonso's.

Considering both sets, Alonso gets a big boost from what was a much better year in '22 than what he's done since, and Santander gets a similar inflation from his career year in '24. So the trends are deserving of attention, taken in the aggregate there's not a real separator here except that Bregman has a more well-rounded profile with a better BB% and OBP (albeit both dropped off last year) while the others are more pure power bats. but the net effect on the team, offensively, is very similar.

Is there then, a separator that goes beyond the home run output? 

Pete Alonso - He's 29, and durable, which are points in his favor. On the other hand, he had an astonishing rookie year and has been more-good-than-great since. He ramped up again in 2022 to a 146 OPS+ but in each of the two years since his OPS+ was slightly below what they got from Horwitz last year (his fWAR was 2.1 compared to 1.9 for Horwitz). If you say "screw it, all I'm interested in is balls over the fence" then a guy who's surpassed 40 three times in six years is on your radar. 

But he doesn't play a position of need, and he's not very good at it, yet it seems like he'd be resistant to signing to be the primary DH (and they dare not antagonize Vlad by asking him to) and he thinks he can get six years which has "Springer 2.0" written all over it.

Alex Bregman - by the "over the fence" metric, he's on a lower level. His one outlier power year was in 2019. His slugging % since that year is 24 points below the career numbers for Santander and far below Alonso (even without Alonso's rookie year he's over 50 points ahead). However, Bregman's career wRC+ is actually a bit higher than Alonso's (135 to 131) and well ahead of Santander's (113). This derives from his better plate discipline both in terms of limiting strikeout and a noticeably better OBP. 

Here's the hidden factor when focusing on power: Bregman was said to have meddled with his swing in the offseason and took several weeks after Opening Day before he worked out the problem. From May 9 through the end of the season (112 games) his OPS was .838, his slugging % was over .500 for the first time since 2019, and he homered at a pace that would have totaled 36 over a full season. If you think THAT is the bat you are buying, you feel a lot better about signing him. Plus, he's the only one of these candidates with plus defense and he fits more cleanly into the team's needs. The downside is that he's still expecting at least six years and the most expensive contract of the three. 

Anthony Santander - this comes down to how much you weigh his platform year against his prior career. Whether you take the two seasons immediately prior, or four, you get a guy who's more-good-than-great across the board. He was a 115 fWAR over that span (129 in '24) and played 3 times as many games while hitting twice as many homers. There's a real risk of paying for peak value here and never getting that value in your lineup. As a DH primarily, he's useful but the Jays have reportedly offered four years and even that is too long IMO. He's almost certain to get overpaid (all these guys could arguably get more than they will end up providing). 

Different people will come to different conclusions. The most reliable power is Alonso but a shorter contract to mostly DH (like Rys Hopkins signed last year) isn't likely to land him and more than that risks real downside. Santander is also best employed as a DH, but do you want him for four years if he's more of a 25-30 homer guy than 40+ (which seems likely)? He'd be an improvement but enough? Bregman brings more balanced and consistent offense, with a potential power upside depending on how you read last season, and quality defense at a position of need, while costing more in AAV and term. He has downside risk in the out years similar to what the Cardinals are now dealing with concerning Nolan Arenado (but won't have a contract THAT big). 

Between the three, I still come down on the side of Bregman. Both of the others seem to me to have more downside risk in the more immediate term (Bregman's would be more on the back half of the deal) and without bringing defensive value could be more of a burden.

To be fair, I should note one more possibility. Jurickson Profar had a wRC+ last season higher than Santander ever had, better than 4 of 6 Alonso seasons, and better than anything Bregman has had since 2019. However, he's been wildly inconsistent alternating good years and awful years for seven straight seasons. 

In 2024 he had 4.3 fWAR, again, better than any season from Santander or Alonso except the latter's rookie year and similar to Bregman's number in each of the last three years. He's not the same home run thread but his slugging was the equal of Alonso's in '24, better than Bregman's (on the whole season, but not in the smaller sample) and almost as high as Santander's. Even though he terrifies me (the alternating years thing) you can probably sign him for 2 years at an AAV around half of what the Big 3 are looking for. He's also a defensive liability but if you're a believer in whatever changes he made to get last year's outcome, and you don't/can't sign any of them, you wouldn't spit on this play as a mostly-DH. Still, in terms of public/pundit perception, there's no way to frame it as "we added some power to help out Vladdy." Honestly, more like a potential leadoff hitter.

Indeed, you could afford Bregman and Profar for around $38-40mm in combined AAV (I say Bregman because the other three are similar defensive liabilities). Depending on how much you want to reserve for any further pitching additions.

Who knows how long this rumination will last before it's obsolete? This is the sort of stuff you read when the news cycle is intolerably slow.