Farm System Wrap

 

When discussing Buffalo you're going to leave a lot of what happened on the shelf because, with trades, long-term injuries, and promotions much of it is moot. For example, I don't need to speak of what Barger did in AAA, nor Will Robertson (just to name two). Take what's left and order the list by OPS/ERA and set aside the journeymen to get to the names that matter.

The top performer on the offensive side was RJ Schreck. The 25-year-old LH hitting OF finished with an .827 OPS while in AAA  reflecting a September slump after a mostly consistent season. Which isn't star power yet. He also had a career high 18 homers. Another guy hit with a big September slump was Riley Tirotta. The 27-year-old corner man hit just .160 this month after finishing August with an .821 OPS. Outfielder Jonatan Clase, who'll be out of options next spring, didn't force anyone's hand, hitting .255 with a .738 OPS. He's a toolsy guy and he did steal 30 bases in 87 games but I don't see how they have a spot free on the major league roster next year so it feels like a trade is inevitable. Scouts and metrics like Yohendrick Pinango but he never turned that into AAA production (his OPS was .714) but he'll be watched closely next spring to see if he can unlock the skills experts are seeing. SS Josh Kasavich, often considered a top 10 guy last spring, spent most of the year hurt and never got his feet under him at the plate.  

With similar filters applied, which is to say that you've got plenty of info on Yesavage by now, the surprising name at the top of the ERA list is swing-man Andrew Bash. While he doesn't have ratios that jump off the page, he kept runs off the board (2.57 ERA) largely by keeping the ball in the park. Mixed results this year from Adam Macko who control came and went all year after coming back from knee surgery, however late in the season he was shifted to the bullpen and after getting roughed up in his first relief appearance in August he reeled off 22 innings in seven appearances, striking out 29 and walking 5 to earn a 2.45 ERA. I'll be fairly shocked if they don't focus on relief with him next year and the early indicators are positive.  There's still some buzz about reliever Ryan Jennings largely because he struck out 82 in 58 IP but he's gonna have to figure out those 43 walks. 

Former catcher now first baseman Jackson Hornung was hot (thanks to BABiP?) most of the summer but a much more ordinary August raised questions about whether he'll hit enough for the position. On the other side of that coin is Charles McAdoo. After a slow start, his OPS June-August was .838. In the context of the New Hampshire roster that makes him a beast. No other hitter on the roster reached even .700 OPS on their time at AA this year. Victor Arias was really hot for his first three weeks after a mid-season promotion but he ran out of gas as August went on. Don't forget him though.

The one remaining top-shelf SP in AA (which has a solid group of relievers) is Fernando Perez. He came to AA and barely had a hiccup which most pitchers take a beat to get reoriented. Spring '27 (assuming health along the way) will see him involved in the conversations. There are several relievers you should make a note of if you want to see prospects coming. The three relievers who are joining SP Alex Amalfi in the AFL - Yondrei Rojas, Chay Yeager, Kai Peterson - all had really small samples in AA but were really good in Vancouver. Nate Garkow is a guy you want to root for. He's a 28-year-old signed out of indy ball last summer and he finished with 14.42 K/9 which at least draws a mention. Also don't overlook Johan Simon and Pat Gallager.  

Of the hitters who finished the year in Vancouver, you could start with Eddie Micheletti, Jr but his OPS is propped up by 78 walks which seems like it's unsustainable for a .228 hitter when he moves up next year. Third Baseman Cutter Coffey had a solid season with the bat even though he doesn't get the praise that 3B Sean Keys does. Keyes should solid power but he hit .217 which, for me, puts him in the same boat with Pinango as someone who needs to translate the metrics into production. The star player is, of course, Arjun Nimmala but he never really came out of the tailspin and he's plenty young enough to start back here next spring and reset. Set back the clock on his MLB debut. In his first month in the Northwest, Ed Duran really struggled to recapture his Dunedin momentum but in mid-August he found his groove, and in his last 13 games he hit .333/.393/.471/.863

While technically no longer on this roster (he was promoted to AA just before the end of the season) it seems more fitting to discuss Gage Stanifer here. He's rocketed into the top 10 prospect list and it's reported that the organization thinks he'll force his way into the majors by this time next year. At least some whisper he might be BETTER than Trey Yesavage. On the season he has a K/9 over 13, the walk rate is a bit high at 4.75 but that's way down from 7.54 in '24, and the long-ball almost can't touch him (4 allowed in 110 total innings). A similar "out of nowhere" narrative is growing around the best pitcher still on the Canadians' roster - Austin Cates. The 22 year old 7th round choice (2024) started a bit slow but then exploded. Through the first start in May (at Dunedin) he had a 7.75 ERA. From that point, in 14 games with the D-Jays he threw up a 2.12 ERA allowing just 40 hits in 59.2 IP to go with and 60 strikeouts. Then he got promoted to Vancouver and got BETTER.  In five starts his ERA was 1.95 and struck out 37 in 27.2 IP while not exhibiting the elevated walk rate that Stanifer had at points - it was 2.71 across both levels. Another rising profile belongs to Silvano Hechavarria. Also 22, he was signed out of Cuba last June and after a brief visit to the Complex league he crossed town to join the D-Jays and dominated. A 1.90 ERA over 47.1 innings and that got him promoted to High-A in mid-August. After the promotion he had a 3.22 ERA and caught the eye of folks who write prospect lists. That said, he has a good-not-great K-rate so he may end up tracking more like Fernando Perez. 

Along with all those relievers mentioned above who got a cup of AA coffee, add Javen Coleman. in 25 IP for Vancouver he had a 1.40 ERA and struck out 40 while walking only six. Gallagher had a 1.13 ERA, Yeager charted 1.17, Rojas was at 1.90 (with similar rate to Coleman), Peterson was at 2.74 and Simon rounds out the group with 3.26 and while none of them were as dominant as Coleman and most will likely fade away, they were all good enough to be aware of.

Some years, the best hitter in Dunedin was a guy just drafted this summer, partly because the better hitters had been promoted by August and partly because they are college hitters in need of a better challenge. This year's example is RF Jake Casey. The son of long time Cincinnati Red Sean Casey, a 15th rounder, finished with a .970 OPS in 23 games. Austin Smith, the 10th round pick and CF was interesting with a .395 OPS and seven steals in his 23 games. It's worth noting Yuni Munoz despite his injury disjointed season. You can base your whole view on one month but when he got hurt he was coming off a monster April (1.053 OPS). He missed all of May and June and when he returned the groove was (temporarily>) gone. We'll need more data next year. Sam Shaw (ninth round in '23) is a 20-year-old Canadian and (mostly) 2B who got seven games in Vancouver at the end thanks to a .901 OPS 

Another leap into the top 5 prospects is '24 3rd Rounder Johnny King. After utterly crushing the opposition in the Complex League, he got the bump to move across town continue to plow through every team that faced him (1.93 ERA over eight starts) before (seemingly?) running out of gas a bit in late August posting his only two bad starts (combined 9 runs in 5IP). I predicted they'd shut him down but he came out for one more turn in the last week of their season and threw 4.2 innings of one-hit shutout, striking out 7 so what do I know? Another pitcher moving onto the edge of the radar is Daniel Guerra. The first couple of months he was just okay, but from the first of June on out he's had a 2.61 ERA, 33 hits in 51/2 IP, and 53 K. Like many young pitchers, there's work to do on control, let alone command, and he might ultimately be better in the 'pen, but keep an eye on him. Likewise note the name Junami Vasquez who, per Doug Fox and his interview with Justin Lehr (a treasure trove for prospect watchers) the organization is intrigued by and may consider moving him into the rotation next year. Among the new guys, with small samples, Mason Olson and Danny Thompson made a good impression. 

I've really already reviewed the accomplishments of the complex team players but to be through, Juan Sanchez has jumped into the top 10 discussion before even getting out of the DSL. Elianeker Coronado turned some heads, and Troy Guthrie is a SP to watch in Dunedin next spring. 

Finally, running down the prospect list to pick up the guys you might have wondered about who's season was burdened by injury. Landen Maroudis was further ahead of the others who had TJ surgery of one sort or another as far as the progression goes, but the results were no doubt frustrating as the control was very not there. Next spring will tell a lot more. Brandon Barriera got a tiny cup of coffee but an unrelated injury stalled the progression. Rickey Tiedemann didn't make it back in time but should be full-go after the calendar turns over. Nolan Perry and Carson Messina (subject of a LOT of buzz) missed the whole season. Jake Bloss went down to injury and surgery in May and will not be in the discussion until at least mid-'26.

August on the Farm

 It's almost over. The A Ball teams have but one week to go, AA two weeks and Buffalo three. But since I set myself on this arbitrary "monthly" pattern I'll do the bit and then, presumably, summarize them all a few weeks from now.

When you strip away the departed and the promoted, the offensive MVP here has to be RJ Schreck even though he has only 42 games in AAA. His power projects to 30ish homers, his OBP across AA/AAA is .392 and he's avoided the up and down patterns of some other hitters. Barring some bizarre drop off (see Orelvis Martinez) he'd be on the threshold of a callup next season when the need arises. Another guy worthy of praise (that he doesn't get at all on the prospect lists) is 3B/1B Riley Tirotta. After a July slump (.679 OPS) he's rebounded to finish August with an OPS of .968 and he's shown defensive versatility. He's Rule 5 eligible and probably won't be protected so don't be shocked if someone take a flier on him. The prospect lists do seem to love Yohendrick Pinango (I don't, TBH) but after an ordinary June and an awful July, he did right his ship a good bit in August (.818) but there's not enough production yet displayed for a guy who's pretty much locked into left field (in my opinion).

On the mound the focus of attention (other than Manoah's rehab) is top prospect Trey Yesavage who now has three starts at the level, each progressively better as his first start at each new level after a promotion tended to be shaky. On Wednesday he gave up one run on two hits over 4.2 IP and unless he's recalled, he should have four more turns before the season ends. Speaking of Alek Manoah, he's got a 3.06 ERA at this level now but the BB/K rates are still very much a work in progress. 

Let's start the AA discussion with Charles McAdoo. His line overall for the season looks, well, fine. Good but not jumping off the stat sheet at you. The reason he's interesting is that at the end of May he was slashing .194/.270/.299/.569 and seemed pretty lost. But he turned it around in June, with an OPS on the month of .806 followed by .829 in July and .882 in August. and hit 11 of his 16 homers in the last two months. He did see his strikeouts peak over those last couple of months though. Work to be done. First baseman Jackson Hornung came in hot when he was promoted from Vancouver but a 2/23 slump in mid-August cooled him off some. Rising prospect Victor Arias also hit AA with his bat on fire, peaking at .906 through his first 17 games for New Hampshire, but August (and adjustments?) is catching up with him (13/73 in his last 20 games).

Fernando Perez has only three starts at AA so far but while his walks are a bit uncharacteristically high, the level has yet to overwhelm him. Still, between trades and promotions he's the last legit SP prospect on this team. There are a few interesting relievers but I'll wait to mention them until the season's over. 

The ongoing question in Vancouver is, of course, is Arjun Nimmala going to pull to of the slump?  Well, his last couple of weeks have been better but not up to what he was doing early on. He's running out of runway. Perhaps overlooked in the meantime, are a few others. Eddie Micheletti among them. The RF started slow but over the course of the season his power manifested and he showed a keen plate discipline but for much of the year the batting average stayed low. At the end of July he was still hitting just .216 though he had as many walks as strikeouts and 14 homers. In August, though, he hit .303 with 18 walks (to 11 K) but didn't homer. Overall he has an .804 OPS. Catcher Ed Duran, who was promoted at the break, also started really slow at this level, hitting just .154 after three weeks. But since August 13 he slashed .317/.404/.512/.916 so, adjustment made I guess. List makers keep telling me to keep my eye on Sean Keyes, reporting that the advanced metrics love him. But you can't see it in the production. He hit .200 in August and struck out an incredible 34 times in one month. Cutter Coffey has had a better year but since he missed three weeks to injury this month I'll comment on him in the wrap. 

If you've picked up on the growing excitement around Gage Stanifer, you're not alone. He's only racking up a 13.62 K/9 at Vancouver to back his 3.20 ERA (1.46 in his last 7 starts) and earlier in the season the scuttlebutt was that the org wanted to leave him here to finish the year but he seems to have forced a promotion after all. Word came today that he's on his way to New Hampshire. A year from now we'll probably be discussing whether he should get a September call-up. Silvano Hechavarria is elbowing his way into the spotlight and Austin Cates is deserving some attention but since the sample (since promotion) for each is so small I'll wait and review then in the wrap. 

August is always the time of year when you get your first look at the guys just drafted out of college (and undrafted free agents) in professional games. Some show out, some are just okay, some kinda don't get rolling again. I'll start with Jake Casey. It's only 20 games of course but the 15th rounder has an OPS of 1.023 and shows out on the bases with 2 triples and 4 SB. Another outfielder, Matt Scannell, a UFA signing, was moved up to Vancouver after only 10 games (in which he was posting a .944 OPS). Another undrafted frr agent signing, defensively gifted SS Maddox Latta who's hitting .319 and has 9 steals in 20 games. 

Pitching storylines to note here: Budding superstar Johnny King is probably out of gas for the year. Eight runs allowed in his last two outings, almost as many as the nine he'd allowed all year before that. Also take note of Daniel Guerra. The 21-year-old Venezuelan has a 2.63 ERA over nine appearance is July and August and recently moved back into the rotation after Cates and Hechavarria were promoted.  

There're some other notes to touch on here that can wait for the wrap up. 

A Proposed Modified 6-man Rotation

 

This was largely posted on Blue Sky but I wanted to also put it in a more shareable format.

So, assuming Bieber's first start for the Blue Jays falls on August 20 (at Pittsburgh) and the Jays don't send anyone permanently to the bullpen but slide through the next 10 days with a 7 man 'pen (they can add a reliever in September) the controversy boils down to is whether the starters get "too much rest". This flows from how an unusual schedule affects their between starts routine, more so than the amount of rest per se, but still, speculation abounds.

I'm sure the team will make much better and more informed decisions than I, but playing with the schedule (assuming no one gets hurt) I think they can minimize that by having everyone (except Scherzer and Bieber who got plenty of rest in the first half) skip one turn down the stretch to refresh.

In the remaining 34 games, you can have a starter going on 5 days rest (as they have done most often this season) 15 times, on 4 days rest 4 times, and on six days 11 times (the other 4 are the long rest games after a skipped start). Within this hypothetical, you shift Lauer to the bullpen for a two week stretch on either side of the Yankees series that is flanked by an off day before and after, and the other three just skip a turn once. Those 11 times (the 6 days rest starts are the controversial bit) are distributed like this:

Bieber - 3 Gausman - 1 Scherzer - 2 Bassitt - 1 Berrios - 2 Lauer - 2 Honestly, I don't think that's a burden. The guy coming off major surgery getting a slightly more gentle run isn't crazy. (that gives Bieber 7 starts total for the Jays in the regular season) By the way, I know Richard Griffin has been banging this drum for a long time, but I have read his proposal, this is just me screwing around.

July on the Farm

With the exodus of various players the new leader (by OPS) of the Bisons' offense is RJ Schrek, albeit in a considerably smaller sample. He sits at .862 in 53 at bats. Still it's a solid transition from AA, not every player carries over offensive success after a promotion. Journeyman Michael Stephanic is still humming along. Catcher Phil Clarke is having his best offensive year (.811 OPS) but he's 27 and never gets discussed when the Jays need catching help. Jonatan Clase rebounded some from a horrible June but he's still not back to what you want to see from a valuable prospect. The prospect rankings that have been updated recently seem high on Yohendrick Pinango and he did have a very good run at AA but since his promotion his OPS is just .709 - I remain skeptical. And it's been a while since I checked in on Orelvis Martinez so...After a solid May and another offensive collapse in June, Martinez had his best month of the year with an .871 OPS in July. This in spite of a mere .217 BA

On the mound, there's not much to report. Adam Macko is the guy that should be grabbing the spotlight but he continues to struggle with getting back in the strike zone. He walked SIX in four innings in his last start. Otherwise, a lot of "meh" here.

Similar to Schreck, the Fisher Cats offensive leader is a new guy recently promoted. Jackson Hornung, a 2023 16th rounder who wasn't even mentioned as a sleeper before this season earned his midseason promotion with an .855 OPS in Vancouver and he's doing even better (.863 in 29 games) since his arrival in AA. Officially listed as a catcher, he's been playing 1B almost exclusively. Third baseman Charles McAdoo was really bad at the plate in April and May but early June brought a revival. In June and July combined he's slashing .279/.335/.479/.814 which is a respectable above average line. Edinsn Paulino had his best month this year in July with a 1.037 OPS (he entered the month at .711 on the season). Cade Doughty had really struggled until July, but he too found a hot streak slashing .342/.391/.447/.838 for the month.

Trey Yesavage took a mid-season break through most of July (reminiscent of Ricky Tiedemann in a previous year, although I have not been able to confirm that he went to Florida for a review as Tiedemann did). In two starts since he's thrown 8 IP, allowed one run on four hits and zero walks while striking out 14. The rest seems to have done him good. Beyond that, a couple of relievers have earned recognition. Pat Gallagher was an 11th round pick in the '22 draft and had been working as a fairly interesting sleeper in the rotation until this year. Shifted to full-time relief, he was very effective in Vancouver (1.13 ERA, 10.44 K/9) and finally got his (overdue) promotion to New Hampshire in late June where his ERA is still under two even though he's allowing a few more runners on base. Nate Garkow is a more unusual case. A 27-year-old reliever at AA is hardly remarkable but he was signed as an undrafted free agent 13 months ago (presumably out of an indy league?) and has an interesting history. This season began with an ugly ERA (7.56) in Vancouver possibly arising from a .455 BABIP and a 7.56 BB/9, but he also had a 17.28 K/9 rate. Moved up to NH, he flipped the script. His ERA is a tidy 1.21 (.175 BABIP) and his walk rate is cut almost in half (4.03) while the K rate is down, but still quite good (13.3) - those numbers look a lot like what he put up in Dunedin in his first go in 2024, so I'm inclined to think that work in Vancouver is the outlier. At his age, I'd expect they'll want to see him in Buffalo soon.

I generally lead towards filling these reports with success stories but you can't discuss the VanC's without checking in with Arjun Nimmala. His .591 OPS in July is a mild correction from the .515 in June (albeit his OPS was .842 as late as June 20before he closed the month 0-for-27) but he's not back to the offensive force of the spring. He is, however, 7 for his last 16 (through Saturday) with his first homer since June 17, so...perhaps? In better new, last year's deadline acquisition Cutter Coffey seems to have found a groove. At the end of May his OPS was .667, but in June and July combined he's slashed .333/.410/.633/1.043 and if he keeps this up you'll be hearing his name a lot more in months and years t0 come. Then there's the curious case of Eddie Micheletti, Jr. After an all-around poor April he's been an offensive force - except when it comes to making contact. May 1 to present his line is .229/.361/.475/.836 and it's a near 30 homer pace over a full minor league season. A parting salute to Victor Arias, now in New Hampshire trying to adjust. He earned that with an .818 OPS in the first half. 

On the pitching side the standout name is Gage Stanifer who's suddenly highly ranked (now sitting 5th on two mid-season update lists when traded players are removed) so while his line is not quite as dominant is Yesavage and the traded Khal Stephen, observers see a lot in him. His ERA is 4.13 at this level, but he has a K/9 (before Saturday's start) of 14.93 and hasn't allowed a single homer this season. I suspect he's very close to advancing to AA.  Also a Top 20 prospect on most lists, Fernando Perez established a new season high in innings Sunday night and is keeping runs off of the board but his K/9 rate is down and his H/9 rate is up. Some question how well his game will hold up as he moves into the upper minors. Still, on Sunday he twirrled his best game of the year, tossing six one-hit innings with no walks and seven strikeout to lower his ERA to 3.19 on the year. With caveats about A ball relievers in mind, Javen Coleman has a 1.69 ERA and a 14.63 K/9 since moving up from Dunedin where he had mixed results. 

More and more people are noticing Ed Duran. He finally got the call to Vancouver after the All Star break and he turned up in the Top 20 on both the MLB Pipeline list and Baseball America's. He left Dunedin with an .817 OPS and a growing reputation as a promising defensive catcher. Another guy who got that post-break promotion was Canadia 2B Sam Shaw (#26 per Pipeline) who had an .801 in Dunedin. Has some speed, gets on base, not just a singles hitter.

With Johnny King joining the D-Jays he pretty much automatically becomes the ace. There's a spike in the walk rate which is probably an anomaly since the promotion (this is the time of year when high-school draftees start to deal with some fatigue) but the strikeout are still there (40 in 21 IP for Dunedin) and he's got a 1.71 ERA in spite of the walks. But he's not the only guy having success. There's Austin Cates, last year's 7th round choice, who got off to a wobbly start but flipped a switch on May 11. In 57.2 IP since, he's got a 2.03 ERA with 58K and 21 walks. And don't overlook Silvano Hechavarria. The 22 year old Cuban righty has only gotten better since he moved over from the complex. To go with a 1.99 ERA, his rates are just as impressive. A 9.74 K/9, a tidy 1.87 BB/9 along with a 7.41 H/9 support that ERA across the board. Definitely some hilum here. Landen Maroudis has now appeared in seven games since returning from his TJ rehab and while he's been having the stereotypical struggles with staying in the zone that many pitchers have when they first come back it's worth noting that if you take out one of those (in which he was charged with 6 runs in 1.1 innings) he otherwise has a 2.11 ERA which is an impressive result given the 19 walks in 21.1 IP. He will likely only get better and may explode next spring.

The FCL Jays actually won the league championship, a first for the organization, which would make you think they were loaded with talent. Well...meh? First Baseman David Beckles, who's old for the league at 21, was the offensive force here with an .871 OPS while leading the squad with eight homers.  A more highly regarded prospect is RF Yorman Licourt (also 21) who had a tremendous May and a horrible June. He's said to have a lot of power potential. The most highly ranked guy here, though not so much as he has been in the past, is bonus baby Emmanuel Bonilla. His offensive struggles continued but he was marginally better in July than he had been in the last couple of years. Not, ya know, actually GOOD though.  

With Johnny King promoted, my pick among the remaining pitchers is Troy Guthrie. He finished the season with a 2.28 ERA His K/9 rate of 7.28 is low for a guy that you want to get excited about, but a 1.45 BB/9 will certainly catch your eye. Or maybe it's another control artist, Sann Omosako, who has a BB/9 of 0.82 (against 7.98 K/9) and he finished strong allowing three earned runs in 19 IP (1.42 ERA) over his last five regular season starts striking out 16 while walking no one. Then tacked on five more shutout innings to win a playoff game. With Eric Pardinho released, the title of Great Brazilian Hope falls to Omosako.

The Jays are running two DSL teams this year, designated Red and Blue and as far as statistical results go, the Red squad is having the better of it. Rather than separate discussions I'll just treat them as one since the distinction really doesn't matter. The best hitter (statistically) by a good measure is SS/3B Juan Sanchez (signed to the second highest bonus in January) who currently owns a .924 OPS and leads all Blue Jays in the DSL with 6 homers. Another January signing is impressing for the red squad, second baseman Elaineiker Coronado who has an impressive 48 walks against just 20 strikeouts which leads to an .843 OPS despite hardly any power yet. Another name to watch is catcher Franklin Rojas He was the top January signing in 2024 and has an .830 OPS. More on-base than power at this point but a catcher that can get on base isn't common in the Dominican. 

Identifying promising pitchers in the DSL is basically impossible from the outside, and the only tiny glimmer can be found in whether a reasonable ERA is accompanied by interesting K/BB rates. Angel Rivero, on the blue squad, is maybe the only guy currently ticking that box. There are  few guys on the red squad who are trending towards being worth a mention. Next time maybe.

Greatness?

 

 The Blue Jays success this summer feels ...strange. I'm not suggesting I don't believe in it, I very much do. They're 39-21 over their last 60 games (since their low-point in early May) which is better than every other team in the majors. That's no fluke. And if you're big on the run differential thing, over that span only one AL team lands better. 

And yet, it feels like much of the fan base and somewhat the pundits and beat writers have been really slow to gain any confidence in calling them a legitimately good team. There's been a certain vibe all the way up until the win streak began to grow that can be described as "yeah, but..." I recall reading headlines (some admittedly clickbait) with themes like "this is what the Jays have to do to be a contender" when the team had already been in a playoff position every day for two weeks. By definition, that's a contender.

Yes, holding the lead looks to be an epic struggle in a division with four contenders unwilling to go away, but no one (except fans of the opposition) should be thinking "it's just a matter of time until..." but too often, we do. Why?

I suggest that from at least the infamous playoff game against the Twins, the fanbase (and those who cover the team) have forgotten how to aspire to greatness. Possibly you could extend that back to 2016. After the World Series years were past, it's been a long, sometimes dark, often frustrating journey back to first place (with the singular exception of 2015-16) and that's a LOT of disappointment and cynicism and ...malaise... to overcome.

But we should. This team CAN be great. There's no reason at this time to be cynical about their prospects at this high point of the season. Even if the last week of games have been, well, underwhelming. As far as I can tell, no one is dismissing the Rays and they come into the break on a 3-11 slump. The Yankees are under .500 over their last 25 games, The Tigers just lost four in a row, and yes bad team do sometimes beat good, if not great teams. 

I'd argue that these occasions come around far too seldom for most baseball fans and can be gone too quickly (consider the Rangers for example) so lets take a break from worry, caution, and cynicism and aspire to greatness. If they end up in the World Series, it will be a much sweeter ride, and if they fall away we can always go back to bitterness then - and we won't have missed the fleeting joy in the mean time.

The Market

 

Much speculation abounds and will increase about the available options who would seem to be potentially available as we move towards the end of the month. This is my attempt at a first pass thought experiment regarding how availability lines up with the teams' needs. The general agreement seems to be that everyone in contention will be looking for the best reliever they can land, that the Jays could really use the best SP they can get (given uncertainty about Scherzer and now questions about Gausman they have to think ahead to the playoff rotation) and possibly a hitter which Ross just described as a right handed hitter which may be extrapolated to "is very good against lefties." Given that the last of these is probably the most shallow pool, when considering guys who match up with the teems needs. 

Some commentators are still talking about adding a significant full time player. To an extent this is related to how Santander recovers but even if you're still not seeing progress there what you want might evolve but it doesn't mean there's a similar guy to be had. From my point of view, if you look only at under .500 teams (not all of whom currently consider themselves sellers) and eliminate young and very controllable hitters who such teams would be disinclined to trade, and then filter it for guys who can play the outfield and has good splits vs LHP and the market is THIN. On the pitching side you have a lot broader range of targets.

For example, folks mention Ramon Laureano and his complete outlier career year - but he's a beast vs RHP and entirely ordinary vs lefties. This is not intended to be an exhaustive inventory of available players, for that see the article today from BNS. Rather, it's just my attempt to look at best match options. Starting with hitters, and under these filters I described above, the most appealing target might be

Rob Refsnyder.

Yes, THAT Rob Refsnyder. The Red Sox don't consider themselves out of it, and might not four weeks from now, but if they sell he'd be among the most obvious moves they could make, and yet not all that expensive. He has a .942 OPS against LHP, with four homers and four doubles in 60 AB. He was almost identically good last year. and it was .828 in 2023 so you're not seizing on some small-sample outlier. Another possibility is Athletics OF/3B Miguel Andujar. The samples are smaller and more skewed towards getting on base than pop, but in terms of prospect cost he'd be very affordable. If you are still dreaming on a higher profile guy, there's also Luis Robert, Jr. but that's a ton of money to pay for the weak side of a platoon.

The relief pitcher thing is MUCH harder to project as you can typically expect around a dozen guys to move most years. but one of the first places to look is Baltimore. RH Siranthony Dominguez and LH Gregory Soto are both pending free agents, and have 11.8 and 10.9 K/9 respectively, but both walk more than is ideal. The guy you'd really like to have is Bryan Baker who's as good at the former while being just as good on the latter but with three more years of control, there's not a great likelihood you could get him. The Twins, should they concede the playoff race, have LH Danny Coulumbe  (a guy I had hoped the Jays would sign in the offseason) whose sporting an excellent 0.79 ERA  (and a 1.77 FIP) and is just as good vs hitters of either hand. If you're thinking more high profile, and want to pay the price, David Bednar is having a nice bounce back year in Pittsburgh. He'd be much more costly but as good an upgrade for the 'pen as they're likely to find, plus he has another year f control. The downside is that he's so good they won't be the only team making an offer and they might well be outbid.  

As mentioned, when you're shopping for SP while thinking ahead to the playoffs you should be aiming high, but also given there various contract situations it would also be a plus to get someone not on an expiring contract. Getting those two considerations addressed in a single guy however is really difficult. While I'm speaking of Pittsburgh, there's Mitch Keller. He's having a good year, signed for three more season at an affordable cost and roughly a Chris Bassitt level guy who could slot into the middle of your rotation in upcoming years. But he's not the guy you think of as a Game One starter either. You could dream on talking them out of Paul Skenes but I can't imagine how you wouldn't be outbid for him if they did trade him. They'll also trade Andrew Heaney but you have to aim higher than that. 

Career wise, the most accomplished SP available is Sandy Alcantara. Coming off of loosing all of '24 to elbow surgery, he started the year off very badly. Through the end of May his ERA was 8.47 with a FIP of 5.38, then he seemed to turn it around some. In his first four June starts his ERA was 2.74 until he got knocked around last Saturday. How he does over the rest of the month (up to five more turns) will control his appeal to teams looking for answers. He's under control for two more seasons and if he gets back to his old self, the buying team should be prepared to pay up. Also getting some discussion around the Marlins is Edward Cabrera and, frankly, it's fair to be skeptical if that's just wishcasting. Not only is he having a fine year but this winter will be his first arbitration eligible winter, which means he comes with three years control and that might be enough to make him almost as valuable as Alcantara. 

Next we check the Royals who might have once considered themselves potentially in it, but are now 7 games under .500 and 5.5 out of the wildcard race. A lot can change in a month but it would have to in order to make them buyers. As sellers, they have two attractive options for buyers. Seth Lugo is on an expiring contract (he has a $15 million player option which he'll almost certainly decline because...) he has a 2.74 ERA and its 3.14 over the three seasons since he became a full time SP. He was a Cy Young runner-up last year. The Royals would be right to say "pay up" and while Lugo doesn't have the long "big game" track record of a potential ace, you'd want him in a playoff series. Rotation mate Michael Wacha also has appeal. Wacha, 33, has a 3.62 ERA and hasn't posted a season over 4.00 since 2021. Collectively over the seasons since its 3.36 which is very consistent. You could think of him as in the Jose Berrios mode.  Plus he's under contract for two more seasons and a third year option that collectively pay him up to $46 million which is both quite economical but also - makes him harder to acquire than Lugo because the Royals don't plan to wait that long to be competitive. 

Which brings us to Arizona. They're just one game under .500 and 3.5 out of the wild card (and likewise behind the Giants and Padres but they likely don't entertain illusions of catching the Dodgers). So they might well buy rather than sell and thus I wouldn't normally have included them here but people KEEP pointing at Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen. Both are on expiring contracts, and Kelly is having the superior season while Gallen is seven years younger and has a much longer and arguably better track record before this season. But Gallen has a 6.97 ERA over the last nine starts before the most recent one (when he pitched well). So even if the D'Backs decide to sell, opposing GMs would have to ask whether the longtime track record (he came into the year with a 3.29 ERA over 143 starts) reflects what you are buying, or the guy who's floundering for the first time in his career. Scary. As for Kelly, 36, he has a more convoluted story (he spent four years in South Korea before signing with the D'Backs in 2019 for his age 30 season. But he has a 3.55 ERA and sits at 3.29 for his career. More, it's 2.25 in four post-season starts (Gallen's is 4.54 in 6 starts). The attention to their potential availability is warranted, particularly Kelly (Gallen feels more like the guy you settle for if you get beat out on the rest of these guys) but you won't know until the afternoon of Deadline Day if they're choosing to buy or sell.

Edit to add: I neglected to include what may be the most intriguing mystery box among potentially available pitchers: Michael Soroka. I have no inside information about whether they negotiated with him in the off-season, but he was known to prefer signing with a team that would let him start but a team that trades for him has made no such commitment. And yet, he CAN do both which is of value. And while his ERA is not close to what you want, the rest of his stats suggest he's much better than that. But more specifically, he splits much better vs. RHP and his stats for the first three inning are considerably better than from the fourth on. He was a beast out of the ;pen for the White Sox in '24 and it's not irrational to see in him a potentially dominant mid-late inning reliever again.

Three or four of these guys at least will likely move. There's a lot more than three or four contenders who will be looking to add a starter. That means the return will sting, more so if you get years of control in the deal. But it would be a helluva gamble to make no move for a SP at all. If I/they knew for certain Alek Manoah would come back "epic" and be his best self or better, maybe I'd try to play it out until he arrives but we just DON'T know, nor can we know about Scherzer or Gausman. If that means you run a six-man rotation down the stretch, that's fine too. Maybe later I'll speculate about the kind of players that would be available but initially, you'd assume that Yesavage, Nimmala, Rojas, and maybe King would be held most tightly. But if you can get the sellers interested in Juran Watts-Brown or Khal Stephens at the front of your package, you're in a good spot.

June in the Minors

 

In some ways it was a not very eventful month, but I'll find a way to write a thousand words or so anyway probably. It's my thing. Yesterday we learned Alan Roden was back down for Will Wagner to get another chance. Wagner had spent the last three weeks of May on the IL and since returning he has an .827 OPS in 57 at bats. Speaking of back from Toronto, Will Robertson had his best month so far in June with a 1.073 OPS  It would be rude not to mention Phil Clarke, I've gotten sort of interested in him before after a hot stretch and then he goes back to being a quite ordinary hitter. It's 23 games since he came off the IL and has an .851 OPS. If he kept that up he'd be more interesting. After regressing in May to a more ordinary line, Riley Tirotta is back with a .913 OPS in June, playing mostly 3B and RF. On the bad news side, after seemingly getting up off the mat in May, Orelvis Martinez ran off a 1-for-44 stretch in June that likely crashes his trade value right when the Jays needs a high-profile prospect for the deadline.

The pitching notes here would be all about relievers. Ryan Jennings has a recent spike in walks, but the sample is too small to call it a trend. Trent Wallace has made the expected switch to relief, but again, he'll need to refine his walk rate to capitalize on his other skills. Lazaro Estrada got roughed up on June 22, but without that one outing his era over the last two months is 2.25 with very nice rate stats.

In AA, it's time we took a moment to consider Jackson Hornung. Drafted as a mostly unheralded catcher in the 16th round in 2023, the switch hitter was just average for the C's last year. But in 2024 he's exploded onto the prospect list. Playing 1B and LF, his .855 OPS in Vancouver this season got him promoted to the offense-starved Fisher cats (who lost their only two productive hitters to AAA earlier in the season) and - in a tiny sample - got better. His strikeout % is very high, but even so he's been a revelation. After a brief stint on the development list, it would see Charles McAdoo profited from it. In June he has a .806 OPS (it was .534 before). I'm obliged to show a little respect to Ryan McCarty. He's 26 at AA, so don't read too much into this but he has an .843 OPS there.

New Hampshire fans are not being treated to a robust offense but they're having, for now, a rare opportunity to take in some excellent pitching. Trey Yesavage took a minute to adjust to the new level but in his most recent outing he threw 5 one-hit innings with one walk and eight K. He's been announced to suit up for the Futures Game. My guess is that early August or so he'll be off to Buffalo. Less spotlight on Juran Watts-Brown but he's working to change that. Had a little stumble in his first game a AA (which is common) but since then, in six games and 30.1 IP he's put up a shiny .207 ERA which might have him ideally situated as the potential trade chip that you can bear to part with but will be coveted by the other team. If he keeps this up though... 

Vancouver just missed securing a post-season berth as the first half ended but there's a lot to hope on with this team. CF Victor Arias rebounded from a down May to run up an .872 OPS over the course of June mostly from the lead-off spot. He's had to drive a (mostly) good-but-not-great squad suffering from a prolonged slump from Top Prospect Arjun Nimmala. Nimmala is currently on an 0-for-27 skid. Joining Arias in the playoff drive were several ;ess prominent prospects. Among them Eddie Micheletti. From May 14 to present, he has a 927 OPS. Similarly, lightly regarded (and normally light hitting) infielder Nick Goodwin had a .966 OPS in June, driven by 7 homers for the month. And there's last year's trade acquisition Cutter Coffey who had a .918 OPS in June. 

Like Yesavage before him, Khal Stephen will probably need to move along to AA after the break to be challenged. While being similarly dominant in keeping runs off the board, the report is that his stuff is not overwhelming like his draft mate but rather he's just an advanced pitcher who needs a better test. In seven starts here he has a 1.73 ERA. In fact, some observers will tell you that Gage Stanifer has better stuff than Stephen. The latter has just over a K per IP and 9 walks in 36.1 IP. Stanifer doesn't have such fine control but has almost 18 K/9 at this level. It's tricky to tell from the outside if they think he's being challenged enough to keep polishing his game at this level. Recently promoted reliever Pat Gallager leaves behind a 1.13 ERA and probably soon to join him Chay Yeager has a 1.71 having surrendered just 13 hits in 31.1 IP. 

 The guy in Dunedin who caught everyone's eye last month was catcher Ed Duran. He cooled off quite a bit in June but the samples are too small to distinguish cold streaks from trends. Second baseman Sam Shaw also cooled off a bit but was still solid. Bryce Arnold, who's split time between SS and LF, recently got a promotion to Vancouver. He leaves behind an .838 OPS though I haven't seen anyone point to him as a legit prospect. 

Our first name here is kind of a cheat since he's on a rehab assignment which he is dominating. Kendry Rojas would have almost certainly opened the year in AA. I'm not certain that's his next stop but it will be soon and there's nothing (that you can tell from results) left to prove here. Newly arrived is the latest rising star in the system, last year's 3rd round bonus baby Johnny King. He utterly dominated Complex teams (41 K in 24 IP) running up a 1.13 ERA in seven games. Highly regarded Landon Maroudis came off of the IL and has made two solid but unremarkable outings so far. A less heralded name is that of Austin Cates. Last year's 7th round pick started the year on his heels running up an ugly 7.25 ERA in his first six appearances. In eight outings since, he's pitched 33 innings with an impressive 2.12 ERA with 34 strikeouts. He'll be in Vancouver before ling if this keeps up. 

In the complex, the samples are still small, especially in the Dominican. But some names to watch can be identified. I've mentioned David Beckles (really too old for this league) and Yorman Licourt (hot May, slumped badly in June) and to that you can add SS Dariel Ramon who's got a .421 OBP and good speed.  But the real story is pitcher Troy Guthrie. He's been pitching mostly piggyback but every indication is that he's a starter going forward. With King gone last year's 11th round pick is the clear best player on this team - for ever how much longer he's here. He's sporting a 1.52 ERA with 27 K against 5 walks. 

In the DSL the names to notice across their two squads are catcher Franklin Rojas, outfielder Rafael Flores, shortstop Juan Sanchez, OF Keegan Pieternella, SS Elaineiker Coronado, and OF Nestor Urbina - all of whom are off to a good start. Also SS Chris Polanco (January's top bonus) who's...not. If you noticed the absence of pitchers in this paragraph, well, there's a reason for that. But I will nod towards Michael De La Cruz who has 20 K and 5 BB in 14.2 IP.  

The short season teams close up shop on July 24. So for most of these guys that will be the end of official games. But Guthrie surely won't be in the Complex that long and the three hitters I  mentioned may move across town to join the D-Jays when their season is over.

May in the Minors

AAA

There are actually a lot of names on the hitting side worth checking in on here. Let's start with newly recalled OF Alan Roden. He hit the ground running when he was sent down and never stopped. In 18 games he hit .361 with a 1.029 OPS. Somewhat surprisingly, the second man on the OPS ranking is OF Will Robertson. His .892 OPS is the best of his career and his walk rate has taken a dramatic upward spike. If he keeps this up he might make himself into an appealing trade chip as an add on. His OPS was .995 in May. Joey Loperfido turned his season around in late April and has an OPS of .854 in his last 31 games. Davis Schneider bottomed at with a BA of .151 on May 4, since then he's hit .275 and has an .832 OPS. How's Orelvis Martinez? Measured from April 19 he has an OPS of .818 which is...fine. He's supposed to be an elite hitter so there's work to do but he's out of that season opening slump. Little noticed or lauded 1B Rainer Nunez had a great May, logging a .313 BA and a .960 OPS.

On the pitching side there are fewer names and fewer familiar names, unless you've been reading my stuff for a while and recognize the guys I have a soft spot for. Take one-time bonus baby Eric Pardinho. Take away the game on May 8, he has a 1.08 ERA. The walk rate is still a bit too high but improving. Lazaro Estrada had a horrid April (weather maybe?) but in May his ERA was 1.85 and the rate stats support it. There's a swing man in here probably as good as guys like Lauer and Lucas at least but he'll wait his turn. Trenton Wallace is another "one bad game" story. In his first appearance he didn't get out of the first inning giving up 5 runs on four walks and three hits. Since then he has a 2.84 ERA over 31.2 innings including 38 K, yet like Pardinho, the walks are high. His career history has been to walk too many when he moves to a new level then gets it down nicely. Another who deserves a nod is swing man Andrew Bash. His rate stats are fine but not eye-catching, but his ERA is and it was below three each of the last two years. Very under the radar. 

AA

The offense in New Hampshire is still pretty ugly, with only a couple of bright spots. The brightest is RJ Schreck who got nothing much done in April but was maybe the best hitter in May with a 1.081 OPS nine homers in 97 at bats. There's not really available AB in Buffalo even though he deserves promotion. Varsho seems likely to need a few weeks with that hamstring (as Schneider gets another major league chance) but if Schreck keeps this up they'll need to find some. The other is Yohendrick Pinango  (who was promoted this weekend behind Schnieder's recall) who's slowed just a tiny bit in May but still had a .911 OPS for the month. Eddinson Paulino wasn't carrying the team but with so little going on here an OPS of .789 for May deserves notice.

Some of the pitching story here is about promotions. Juaron Watts-Brown and Grant Rogers are newly arrived and have small samples so I'll get back to them in a bit. Meanwhile hot-ticket reliever Ryan Jennings after running off a string of 10 scoreless innings over six appearances. He's only given up one run in five AAA outings since. CJ Van Eck also got promoted but the stats are just okay. What this team does have is solid relief work. Swingman Michael Dominguez has been great in both roles with a 1.42 ERA with 33 K (against 10 BB) in 25.1 innings. The stats say "ready for AAA." Connor Larkin, old for the level, has a 2.51 ERA and seven hits allowed in 14.1 IP with 20K.Geison Urbaez also has a tidy ERA (1.74) but the rest of the line is just mid. But then there's Hunter Gregory (like Larkin, he's 26) has 34 K and 10 BB in 24 IP and a 2.25 ERA in 17 games. Again, if there were not so very many retreads in Buffalo he might get a chance to move up. 

A+

To speak of Vancouver is to discuss Arjun Nimmala. He has a .900 OPS (third among qualified hitters in the league) with 9 homers (2nd) 14 doubles (1st), and 52 hits (3rd). And he's still among the youngest in the league. I had assumed he would develop at this level for the whole season but if there's no setbacks, I could see him Trying AA sometime in August just to get the new-level adjustment out of the way. Adrian Pinto was on a roll but the injury prone 2B/CF has been, wait for it, on the IL since May 10. While he recovers he's sitting on a .984 OPS. Then there's 1B Jackson Hornung. Who? That was my reaction.  The former catcher, drafted in the 16th round in '23, has blossomed at his new position and currently sports a .906 OPS. We'll see where this goes. 

Promotions are again, and especially, the story of the hour for the C's pitching. Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephens, and Gage Stanifer got their long-expected bump almost two weeks ago which led to a couple of the better starters here moving up. Juaron Watts-Brown was leading the Northwest League in strikeouts with 62 in 37.1 IP, against only 12 walks for a 3.62 ERA. This attributed to both more aggression and better control. Grant Rogers has less overwhelming rate stats but got results. He had a 1.82 ERA in 39.2 IP across eight starts. He is not a "stuff" guy so he might be another pitcher I get a crush on in A ball who never gets to the majors (see Nick Fraze for example). We'll see. Otherwise the pitchers to note are in relief, albeit with the caveat that dominating in the 'pen at A ball is often a mirage. Start with Pat Gallagher. He's sporting a 0.64 ERA on the season, only 14 hits and 10 walks in 28 IP with 30 strikeouts. Right there with him is Kai Peterson who had an insane K rate at Dunedin last year. It's more good than amazing now, but he has a o.93 ERA and a dramatically better walk rate. Chay Yeager's rate states are almost identical to Peterson's but the ERA is higher (though still fine) at 2.84.

A

There are some names here that, it seems certain, you'll see turn up as new entries on mid-season top prospect list updates. First among them maybe is 2B Sam Shaw. He didn't have a big sample in April but what he put up was poor, yet in 90 AB in May he's hit .322 with a .940 OPS. Another name suddenly on the radar ius catcher Edward Duran. Duran was the "lottery ticket" PTBNL when the Jays traded Jordan Groshans to Miami. He was pretty good the next year ('23) but regressed a lot in '24 (apart from inexplicably stealing 15 bases). This last winter, so it was reported in a piece I cannot now find and thus regrettably cannot credit, Duran took that personally and did the work. Already a well-regarded defender, Duran has advanced his game on both sides but particularly with the bat. it took him a minute to get going but he picked it up in mid-April. That was just warming up though. His slash for May is .345/.422/.563/.985 and he has at least one hit in every game for the month. Watch this guy. A couple of Dominican signings from a little while back that were said to show interesting promise are seemingly beginning to realize some of it. Both Jean Joseph and Yhoangel Aponte had dreary Aprils, both have rebounded nicely in May, with OPS of .835 and .806 respectively. Still pretty deep sleepers with a long way to go but, tip-of-the-cap.

I will lead the pitching review here with reliever Colby Martin. Though 24, he hasn't been pitching very long and his first season saw him walk 14 in 8.2 IP but the off-season work with the organization paid off. He's given up a modest 3 hits in 17.1 innings and didn't allow an earned run until last Friday. The walks are vastly improved (8) and he's struck out 22. He's said to have a big fastball and as long as he can keep putting it in the zone and getting outs he'll eventually catch some helium. Trey Yesavage ran roughshod over the league before getting promoted (as expected) racking up 55 strikeouts in 33.1 IP. Khal Stephen had an even better ERA but gave up a bit more contact. Still, he too was far too good for the league. Joining them was Gage Stanifer who's been piggy-backed with Yesavage but is throwing starter level innings. He was having his second go at the level because last year was a disaster, walking 50 in 59.2 IP - but he went out this offseason and found out he needed glasses. Boy did it pay off. He struck out 38 in 26 innings and while walking120 is still too much it's significant progress. And a 0.69 ERA speaks for itself. Next month we'll have sufficent samples in Vancouver to pour over. Gil Bautista had a couple of rough outings back-to-back this month but he's still the best remaining starter on this team (for now) with a 3.35 ERA and 41 strikeouts over against just 8 walks.

Complex

We don't have April to look back on here since they started play in May but a quick rundown of those off to a good start begins with David Beckles. He had two nondescript seasons (except for a pretty amazing walk rate for the island) in the DSL for the Yankees' system before being released and signing with the Jays. He carried that over to the Jays' DSL team last year but only hit .202 so no one looking in from the outside saw great promise. But he's off to a great start in '25 with a 1.012 OPS. Another OF, switch-hitter Yorman Licourt had an .887 OPS last season and so far is sitting at .942 as this one begins. This seems a trajectory to gain him some buzz if it continues. Second baseman Drew Jemeson has a 1.162 OPS but he's *24* in the Complex so massive grain of salt. 

Let me take a sec to look at Emmanuel Bonilla. You remember the highly praised bonus baby of January 2023? He had a nice season in the DSL that year, and was moved up to the complex for the '24 season. Through June 8, in 25 games, he was seemingly right on track, hitting .290 with an OPS of .847 but then - bad things happened. In 100 more AB that season he had SEVEN hits, two of them for extra bases. He's hard to imagine going off of a steeper cliff than that. So he's back in the complex, of course, and it started poorly. 3 Hits in his first 45 at bats. But since then he's on a seven-game hitting streak (I now, but you have to start getting off of the mat somewhere) in which he's gone 8 for 24 with a 1.012 OPS over this tiny sample. MAYBE he's figured something out?

The samples stretch even thinner on the pitching side but do take note that Johhny King (last year's 3rd round steal) has yet to allow a run in his first 8 IP while striking out 12 walking 3. Good start. Landen Mauroudis has made five appearances working his way back from elbow surgery and likely crosses down to join the D-Jays before June is over. 

Also, if you still haven't got enough, the DSL Jays start play today (June 2) with carryover 1B/C Randy Soto who did well last year and likely all of the highly paid and promising players signed in January (Chris Polonco, Juan Sanchez, Kennew Blanco, Elaineiker Coronado) so, let's check back in a month.

Roster Speculation Too Early - Part 2

 Let's start with the bullpen because there seems less to say. There're two things here - one is that it's almost impossible to foresee a trade for a reliever coming in principle. I can't remember a trade for a pitcher that anyone rumored more than 24 hours before it happened. The other is that there's not really an obvious way to add a good reliever without losing a good reliever - barring injuries.

Eight MLB spots available. Hoffman, Garcia, Green, Rodriguez, and Swanson are effectively certain when healthy, as well-paid veterans. Likewise Little who has made himself indispensable. You're down to two spots already. If/when Sandlin recovers, he should be on the roster (though he technically has options. If Turnbull is added to the rotation (more on that in a bit) then Lauer is at last a candidate for long relief. That would be eight and yet Fluharty has earned a spot, Fisher has yet to be touched, Urena is at least present, and Burr will have to clear waivers if he's not added. They're obviously not all healthy, but even with three on the IL and Turnbull not quite here, there's really just one spot held by a dispensable guy. Of course, you don't know who will be healthy two months from now, so it could happen - but as of now it doesn't look like it HAS to happen.

The rotation though, there's a chance something big could happen depending on developing situation. Within two weeks, Turnbull will bump either Francis or Lauer but the one who survives that is not above being pushed aside for an acquisitions in a couple of months. But the complexity here comes from (again) the injury list. To be blunt, if Scherzer is still a question mark in two months then you have to treat it like he's not going to solve your need (of course if he is healthy there's much less of a problem here). Alek Manoah thinks he can get back in August some time, and if they make an acquisition they might block him (barring some newer injury on the staff) but they might well do so anyway.

But again - as it stands now, supply is an issue. There are only seven teams that have the appearance of being clear sellers at the moment. There might be as few as 10 at the deadline and the crop of good and theoretically available pitchers is even thinner than the hitters. Andrew Heaney might be the prize of the market in July. Go look at the rosters and count the number of guys that you'd trade for and expect a clear upgrade.

And the thing about both of these posts is that most of these consideration will have at least some application in free agency, If you count Manoah they'll have three rotation spots set, and if there's a big contract it would seemingly be a SP, but barring something really wild like going out and getting Tucker, there's not a buyers market in the off-season.

But off-season aside, I'll be pretty surprised if there's a game changing trade this summer and I expect considerable internet unrest even though it's largely out of their hands. 

Roster Speculation Too Early

 

 It's the time of year when you start seeing people speculate about what a contending version of the Jays might do in July to augment the roster - which has downstream implications for how the offseason would develop. What follows is loaded to the gils with assumptions that may not, in fact, manifest but it's at least one scenario that leads to a perhaps unexpected conclusion.

Let's first stipulate that the three areas of potential concern generally cited are SP upgrade, RP addition, and a RH hitter. Taking the last first, we're obliged to note that due to incumbent performance and contracts, there are two(ish) positions you can even entertain as open to upgrades. One is 3B and there's a fairly good chance that we'll be confident by July that there's no option available that promises a better outcome than we can get from Addison Barger. Yes, hot players can go cold and fail ala Davis Schneider but Barger was always a better prospect with more talent than Schneider who was a complete aberration when he was called up. 

The other is left field, more or less. For the sake of this exercise I'll call Santander our regular DH. When he's not Springer will be for the most part so either way, on opening in the outfield IF you operate from the premise that they dare not trust Lukes and the kids as they good into a playoff drive. That's NOT my position but if you assume that's a problem best solved internally then there's no real way to augment the batting order without something way more radical than this team is willing to do. Here's the thing though: go to FanGraphs and filter for RH hitting OF, ignore the players who are obviously not available, and look for players (theoretically) certain to be better down the stretch than Lukes/Roden/Clase/Loperfido and the list gets really short. Take out the few that are so young and controllable that their current team would be foolish to trade him and it's shorter still. 

Austin Hayes, Ramon Laureano and Tayler Ward. That's the three with a wRC+ higher than Myles Straw has right now. Three. Do I need to point out Laureano's combined WRC+ for the five seasons before this one combined is 101? He's not your savior. Hayes comes in slightly better at 106, but he was a free agent that they passed on last winter. Which means everyone looking to add an OF bat will be trying to get Ward - and he might not even be available.

Bottom line, barring a shocking acquisition of a player basically no one thinks is available - don't expect a big move here.

For the sake of length I'll discuss the pitching options in a separate column. 

Minor League Notes

 

I'm not really going to try and keep up the pretense of a systematically formatted overview here. I've never been satisfied with previous attempts and (as always) there's already five or so other columns on this same topic out there, perhaps with more insight. So I'm just relaying what I find to be worth remarking on - though I will go level by level.

This is the time of year that's most difficult for "scouting the stats." If you've followed my writings for a while you probably know that I kind of hang my hat on trends. Which players seem to be moving in a positive or negative direction? Likewise over the course of a season we get constantly reminded again that even though "month" is an entirely arbitrary end point, a good player can have a horrid month, and a marginal guy (at best) can look like an all-star for a month. So when you're sitting on the first weekend in May, you don't have enough of a sample to say very much about trends, and you don't want to over-react to one month of work.

Case in point, one Orelvis Martinez. Our #5 prospect (on the aggregate list) is stinking it up so far. He's hitting a not-exactly robust .151 with a .523 OPS and 31 strikeouts in 22 games. It would be unwise to panic but he's not beating down the door. In the "trending" department here you might note Joey Loperfido. After a 14 game cold streak in which he went 8 for 49, his BA was sitting at .188 (.607 OPS) but he's 7 for his last 19 (as of May 1) so maybe he'll continue to heat up. For good news we look to Jonatan Clase who's whose hitting .351 with an .872 OPS and he's already stolen 13 bases. there's a non-zero possibility that the Jays let Roden step back here and regroup, as they did with Wagner and Schneider, and see how Clase does with some major league run. Give a hat-tip to corner infielder Riley Tirotta too. he's got a .910 OPS so far. 

Among the pitchers it's been a month of waiting on guys to get it together and step up to their expectations a bit. For example, Jake Bloss (#4) got knocked around in his first three starts (to the tune of a 10.32 ERA) but has thrown 9 shutout innings over his last two starts, walking one and striking out 12. Less heralded, but with a good track record, Trent Wallace wasn't pilling up his usual high K rate but he's struck out 25 in his last 16.1 IP and the results have followed (2.76 ERA over those starts).

In AA, the Fisher Cats offense is making the Blue Jays group look like league leaders. There's ONE guy who's doing good work and it's not the guy anyone would have predicted a month ago. Yohendrick Piñango (guy needs a nickname I can spell) is the only hitter with above average output so far, sporting a .964 OPS. The next highest OPS is #26 Jace Bohrofen's .691 and he's got 33 strikeouts already.

The pitching, on the other hand, has been getting good results in most cases - so maybe this is a league/weather fluke favoring pitchers? - and the highest profile guy here is probably Ryan Jennings (#25) who kinda went sideways for a week but also has 21 K in 14.1 IP.

Now the best feel-good story in the system, at least among hitters, belongs to Arjun Nimmala. His six homers already leads the league despite being much younger than the average player in the NWL. He's also hitting .303 with a .940 OPS. 2024 6th round pick Aaron Parker is off to a sold start (.819 OPS) and #29 OF Victor Arias (.812) are also showing well, as is #20 prospect Adrian Pinto (.819).

Ranked prosect Juaron Watts-Brown (19) has been pretty dominant (leads the NWL in strikeouts) and is building momentum towards a AA promotion maybe by the end of the month. He has 37 strikeouts (against only 8 walks) in 22.2 IP. Not ranked and largely unheralded coming into the year, Grant Rogers has a 2.22 ERA over 5 starts. He's the oldest starter here and needs to be challenged with a promotion son. Three or four good relief arms so far too that might be mentioned here over the coming 4 months.

The Dunedin squad has some interesting stories. Start with SS Manuel Beltre, who's on his third try with the D-Jays. For two years he hasn't even been average offensively, but in this early small sample he's got an .885 OPS with a significantly better BB/K ratio. RF Yeuni Munoz who had been considered interesting but not ranked on anyone's list has 5 homers in 16 games and sports a 1.053 OPS. Shortstop Bryce Arnold, an undrafted free agent in 2023, would have seemed to be just an org guy but at the moment he's got a .983 OPS so maybe we keep an eye on him. CF Braden Berry is hitting .347 (.868) has been solid. Another sleeper to watch is also an undrafted FA - 1B Payton Powell. He's walked 13 times and struck out only seven. Gonna need some XBH though.

If there's a pitching companion to Nimmala's early season success, it's Trey Yesavage. The 2nd ranked prospect in the system sports a 2.31 ERA and 36 K in 23.1 IP. Draft mate Khal Stephen (9th )is also dominating with a 2.19 ERA in five outing. The two of them also look like candidates to move u in the next few weeks, Watts-Brown and Rogers moving to make way for these two would be my guess. Another guy to watch is Greg Stanifer, a SP who's been piggy-backed with Yesavege this season. Last season he walked 50 in 59.2 IP - this year he has 8 in 18 with 9 hits and 24 K. His ERA is 0.50 which it eye-popping. Also shout-out to last year's 9th round choice Colby Holcombe who has a 2.25 ERA and also has to be on the radar to move up.

Meanwhile on the IL watch Brandon Barriera (ranked 13th) just past one year out from his internal brace elbow surgery and Landen Moroudis (14th) is three weeks short of the one year anniversary of his and both are reportedly on the cusp of pitching again in games that count. With the Complex League starting up this weekend, the two of them are likely to see some game action there and if all goes well be penciled in to fill a couple of the openings that will arise with the D-Jays before mid-season. Alek Manoah's IBS was roughly a month after Moroudis' so this time next month we'll be hearing, barring a setback, about the approach of his first game action. Ricky Teidemann's surgery was in July so put him down as maybe a month behind Manoah.

Speaking of the GCL, where the begin play today (May 3) their initial roster (subject to change) features an unusually intriguing quintet of SP. Three high-school draftees from the '24 draft, highly praised (and 11th ranked) Johnny King, intriguing Carson Messina, (28th), and under-the-radar Troy Guthrie will join two graduates who earned their tickets out of the DSL last summer. Cuban Silvano Hechavarria (21) had a 1.84 ERA and impressive ratios, given his age relative to the league he might get the first promotion to the D-Jays here beyond the rehabbers. Sann Omasako, a 19 year old Brazilian, had a 2.49 ERA in the DSL and only walked 7 in 76 IP over 19 games ('23-'24) in the Dominican. On the offensive side, the organization will be trying to get ranked prospect (27) Emmanuel Bonilla on track after his '24 season went badly off the rails. Obviously we'll know more in a month.

More Reflections on a Potential Vlad Deal.

In light of Shapiro's interview and because why not, I'ma do it again. IF they do make a deal that includes this season, 2025, Vlad's wanting 15 years (through his age 40 season) can work in their favor. If you start with $500 million in total value, which is a figure Vlad called his floor, and you make the last 4 seasons 20-20-15-15 (this is an off the cuff example) and round up the '25 salary to 30, that's $100m and leaves $400m over 10 in the middle.

The extended length makes the overall AAV 33.33 which is good for the Jays, in the peak years he'd get (and be worth, for all but one of them) $40m or more annually which should appeal to him, and his agent has to know that no other team is going to give him 15 years.

To illustrate in more detail, I'm going to steal the chart from Ben Nicholson-Smith's article that I've referenced before:

Here is a theoretical illustration of how such a deal might be structured:

30-36-42-45-45-45-45-40-40-36-30-22-20-12-12

What I'm doing here is minimizing the number of years that, if he produced more or less just what these projections suggest, that they would be noticeably underwater in terms of overpaying for that year's production. First, take note that BNS doesn't include 2025 on his chart but assuming he'll be worth $50m in '25 (using this formula) seems reasonable.

So to revise his chart and make it easier to follow...

Year	contract year	age	cost of 1 WAR	projected WAR	Value	proposed salary
2025	1	26	10	5	50	30
2026	2	27	10.3	5	51.5	36
2027	3	28	10.61	5	53.05	42
2028	4	29	10.93	4.5	49.17	45
2029	5	30	11.26	4.5	50.65	45
2030	6	31	11.59	4.5	52.17	45
2031	7	32	11.94	4	47.76	45
2032	8	33	12.3	3.5	43.05	40
2033	9	34	12.67	3	38	40
2034	10	35	13.05	2.5	32.62	36
2035	11	36	13.44	2	26.88	30
2036	12	37	13.84	2	27.68	22
2037	13	38	14.26	1.5	21.39	20
2038	14	39	14.69	1	14.69	12
2039	15	40	15.13	0.5	7.56	12

So that's surplus value for the first 8 years, and never more than $4 million underwater until the last year. In fact, if he underperformed this and only produced 4 WAR on average in years 2-6 he'd still not be underwater in the first 8 years. Of course it's not impossible to have a Prince Fielder situation but there's not really any way to pre-plan for that, it's the risk you take. Since I didn't include a totals line - that's 48.5 WAR, valued at $566.16 million, purchased for the low low price of $500 million.

Now, there's one more layer to this. Team payrolls 15 years ago were, in the top 12 spenders, at least $100m less than they are now (actual payroll, not CBT figures which wasn't a thing 15 years ago). The low spending teams don't inflate that much the mid-to large spenders do. If you project that forward then by the end of a 15 year deal the Jays payroll might easily be in the area of $350 million. In that context a $12m player is 3.4% of the payroll. For comparison, 3.4% of the 2025 payroll is almost $8.3m - Roughly what Dalton Varsho's making.

The point of all that is that if you structure the deal as I'm suggesting, Vlad's salary when he's nearing the end wouldn't be any sort of impediment to building a winning team. The whole gamble here is whether, in the main, he produces a career similar to what these generic projections would suggest. Think of it like this: if he is completely washed by 36 and gives you no value at all in the last four years, these projections still value him at roughly $495 million up to that point.

IF you - as the Blue Jays - have a value estimation system that produces generally similar projections to the publicly available Fangraphs system then it's not a massive risk to go to $500 million for that period of time unless you think he's gonna start crumbling before his mid-30s.