On the Come Up

 Originally the title was "Four on the Come Up" but eventually I decided I was unnecessarily slighting at least one other. But adding others just makes the point stronger so here we go.

There are two forces at work with the 2025 Blue Jays that are in some tension. The one everyone talks about is the addition of veterans from outside the organization in order to maximize their chances in a year that might be the end of the Vlad/Bo era. It's not a wrong or poor choice to do so but the natural result of that is having seven of the nine spots in most batting orders accounted for. Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Santander, etc are going to be out there - barring injury - in the vast majority of games (and STILL the commentators muse occasionally about being "one bat short"). Third base and, kinda, DH are the only two places where there's some flexibility.

And yet, there are 4-5 young, not yet established, players that in an ideal world you'd really like to see blossom into legit contributors this year. Let me elaborate.

Addison Barger - some observers seem to be acting like Ernie Clement is that natural incumbent at 3B because he got so many starts last year and played very good defense there. But he doesn't have an offensive profile that screams "every day starter on a contending team." His game plays up a lot better coming off of the bench. Barger has the best natural claim to the right to make his case to own the job. He's a steadier defender, insofar as we've been told, than Martinez, has a cannon for an arm while Wagner's is short for the position, and has a power and on-base upside far beyond anything reasonable to expect of Clement. If he can approximate his minor league performance in the majors, he'd insert a very valuable lefty bat into the middle of their order. In 153 AAA games he hit 41 doubles and 21 homers with a .372 OBP. If for some reason (noted below) they choose differently for 3B, there would be a strong case for Springer and Santander soaking up a lot of DH at bats while Barger plays RF.

Orelvis Martinez - Everyone interest in Blue Jays prospects at even a causal level knows this guy is a legit 30+ homer guy whose power comes easy. Buzz is that he's already showing evidence of adding the needed polish to his overall offensive game with better plate discipline and bat control. Reservations exist about his defensive position, but it seems some in and around the org are coming around to a point I've been making for a couple of years - who cares about the glove, let him DH and watch the young man cook. If you think you need to prepare for Vlad to leave, don't daydream about Alonso or someone - let Mattingly school Orelvis at 1B as a plan B. Of course, there's a non-zero chance that he'll show enough consistency at 3B to win that job, which is fine if they find a way to make sure Barger gets plenty of run. In this sense (and some of these other scenarios) what would open doors is the return of George Springer's tendency to spend some time injured. Not to wish harm on him or anyone but were I a gambler I feel pretty good about a bet that both these young men will produce more offense than Springer in 2025. But the team will be slow to reduce his playing time if he's healthy.

Will Wagner - this is the trickiest situation on the list because the team seems convinced that he'll be an important part of this team but there's no clean fit anywhere. He's played a little 3B but that arm, his best position is 2B but that's no longer an option. He can spell Vlad at 1B but that's not all that many at bats. He could DH but then Vlad or Barger would have to sit. You could, with a major league coaching staff, engineer an optimization plan that would have Barger at 3B or RF against MOST RHP, Wagner at DH (except when occasionally spelling Vlad) against most RHP Martinez at DH or 3B (depending on how heavy the defensive demand will be that day at 3B) against virtually every LHP as well as DH when Wagner is playing 1B and 3B when Barger is in the OF while an outfielder is the DH. For someone like me it would be very complex because it turns on a lot of things (like whether you're facing a fly ball hitting team or your SP allows a lot of grounders to the left side on any given day) but you COULD maybe split the at bats of two positions among three guys here and not let any of them rust too much.

Alan Roden - by now you've seen all the hype, and heard Ross call him by name as someone to watch ad I agree. He's got a lot of skills to bring to the team, particularly as a lead-off hitter, but what he doesn't have is an obvious position on the major league team. Again, barring injury. The kid isn't going to be your DH, the three outfield spots are filled by veterans and if all goes well are adequately covered when one needs to sit or DH. A player like Roden NEEDS to be getting his reps in and so he will (barring injury) - in AAA. For a while. By June, if Springer's not making a noticeable comeback, both he and the organization are going to have to accept that it's a stronger team with him on the bench. And if they're not winning a lot more games than many expect, they can't wait around past mid-season to pull that unappealing trigger. Maybe at that point the recall Roden. But having all four of these guys trying to get regular playing time this year is still going to be a heck of a challenge and you don't want to hobble any of them by not getting them enough work to get in a groove.

Joey Loperfido - I believe in this guy more than most and even I sometimes forget to include him in these speculations. He could maybe start at AAA and be told to "go down there and force us to promote you" or they could accept that his opportunities will be spotty but decide to carry him as a backup because he can play CF (where either Barger or Roden would be pressed). I don't exactly see how he gets a chance to lay claim to a position as his own unless (a) something bad happens to/with Springer AND Roden isn't rolling hot in AAA at the time he might have otherwise been called. But that doesn't mean I don't respect his upside, it's just a roster construction issue.

My point is, I want to believe that every one of these players can and may very likely will surpass what has been projected from them - that would be a very exciting aspect of a successful season. But the just won't all fit. Some of these guys are going to need run that they won't find available in the majors this year. And that sucks a bit IMO. And in all this I haven't said anything about Davis Schneider, or Nathan Lukes, or Leo Jiminez, or John Kasavich, or Jonatan Clase. Because for one reason or another, in my judgement, they are all behind the guys I listed above. 

And if Vlad and Bo do get away, as painful as that would be, maybe the near-term future isn't going to be the dark valley so many seem to assume.

Why is No One Talking About This?

 To be fair, there's a level on which I already know the answer. But still, commentators and staff around any team regularly speculate and spitball about "out of the box" ideas, yet I've seen/heard basically nothing about an idea that seems fairly obvious to me.

Going into the off-season there was a widely held view that among the positions that were in some sense available to be used to upgrade the team - 3B, 2B, LF, DH - the one with the best internal solution was 2B because the organization seemed pretty high on getting Will Wagner's bat into the lineup. But since the Andrés Giménez acquisition that got a lot more cloudy. If you want Wagner in the lineup, where does he play? They're now, belatedly, mumbling about giving him a look at 3B (where he has played some in the minors but word is the arm will be short for that) or even a lot of reps at DH (not ideal for a 26 year old, and not an option when you want one of your corner outfielders to get a half-day off) or, even worse, putting him at 1B and Vlad at DH (all the best of luck in THAT making him feel better about re-signing).

Less discussed but at least mentioned is the idea of moving Vlad to third (which he would love and might move the needle in terms of getting him signed) and playing Wagner at 1B - but most of the metrics aren't liking him much by now as a first baseman so it's difficult to believe that they'd give very many 3B reps to Vlad this year, and less easy to believe they would have some plan to do that which wasn't buzzing around Dunedin by now. But there IS another option.

I'll say this up-front, from an "intangible" point of view, this would have to have the player involved out in front saying "It's all good, anything for the team" and be sincere about it. Look at George Springer this week - Not lead-off? Okay. Left field some? Fine, whatever they think makes us stronger" - or words to that effect. If you don't have that, you create the potential for bad blood and resentment which washes out whatever you might have gained.

What am I talking about? Bo Bichette at third base. I know, I know, Bo's been pretty vocal about "I'm a shortstop" and discouraging the idea of any position change, but better shortstops than him - some significantly so - changed positions for the good of the team and in so doing proved they could be good at more than one position. From a business perspective (as a player), it's good for your next contract. Bo's team ought to consider, if your market is winning teams willing to, in theory, give you over $20 million a year - almost all of them already HAVE a highly paid SS or a young one they believe in. Being willing to play some other position maximizes the chance of a bigger contract.

If Bo is willing to contentedly play 3B (he can't really afford to get twisted up because he's got to feel focused in the batter's box or there's no big contract) then Giménez slides to SS (improving the defense outcome at the most important position on the field) and Wagner plugs in at 2B. Problem solved. 

I've been a defender of and advocate for Martinez and Barger in particular along with Loperfido and the other younger players that are on the margins of the roster but this - analytically, on-paper - SEEMS like a pretty obvious way to stabilize the lineup. With the DH slot still in play there's opportunities for those other guys to get some reps but I feel like there's a lot of value in having an "everyday" group of at least 8 out of 9 spots.

So why is it NEVER mentioned? I get that the team might be on eggshells a bit about giving Bo a new reason to want to leave, but if they offered him, say, a six-year deal are they really prepared to commit to him as your SS for the next six years? If not that's a bridge you're gonna have to cross at some point.

But even so, none of that keeps the beat writers and radio hosts and what not from mulling the option. Let's talk about it.

Briefly RE Vlad's deal

 Briefly? When have I ever?

Anyway, all the beat guys have to generate content (after all, they're getting paid) and it would be silly to begrudge the various speculations about what Vlad's deal should look like, but let's set some boundaries:

Vlad's not going to get Soto money. Arguably Soto shouldn't have landed a $51m AAV, but I hope I don't need to go deep on why Vlad's not Soto. Notably though, Soto's fWAR is double Gurrero's with Vlad having 118 fewer games played. 

Second, no Vlad's not going to equal or approach Judge's $40 million AAV nor should he. When he signed Judge also had twice the accumulated fWAR as Vlad and in fewer games than Vlad has now, plus he's capable of an at least passable CF. It will be a longer deal and thus larger in total value, because Judge was going into his age 30 season. But not that much on AAV.

He shouldn't expect to surpass the present-day value of Shohei Ohtani (almost $438mm). Besides the obvious fact that he can't pitch, Ohtani had accumulated 19.5 fWAR as a hitter in 716 games compared to Vlad's 17 in 819 games. 

He will likely exceed Mookie Betts in total value and AAV even though Betts is pretty clearly a more valuable player. Betts got $365m in starting in 2021 on a 12 year deal which is an AAV a bit over $30m a year. Recent market inflation has made Betts' deal something of a bargain.

On the AAV front, Mike Trout comes in at a bit over 35.5 and Francisco Lindor is at 34.1 and coming in below these would give him as much as the 6th highest AAV, exceeding them would set him 4th.

Everyone seems to agree that you'll have to get to at least $400mm in all to get a signature, and it's fair to think that you don't have to pass Ohtani to be satisfied. In that range of 400-436 you can do a lot of creative variations depending on the number of years you are buying and whether you price in the 2025 salary. For example, if you price his actual free agent years at $36m x 11 years then add in this season's 28.5 you get 12 years total for 424.2 and an AAV just below Trout's. That's the 4th biggest contract ever and 5th highest AAV. 

I'm not predicting this per se, just using it as an example of the range they are probably discussing. It's impossible to know whether Vlad's team even cares about AAV but actually just has a goal for the total contract, for example, but it's fair to assume that the discussion exists in the 400-440 range and 12-13 years which the Jays are just going to have to accept. I assume that as the deadline looms, that you need to work out granular details about signing bonuses and opt-outs (I wouldn't be at all surprised if he has one at 5 or 6 years out) and maybe deferrals, but they have to be pretty close on the total value at this point. 

We'll know soon. 

Lineup Musings

 Maybe this is sort of an outdated mentality. Maybe there's a bunch of papers out there that detail why this is really no big thing. Maybe the team knows things that I don't (I mean, of course they do but I mean specific to this issue I want to speculate about) but short of speculating over Vad's eventual contract there's not that much else to discuss.

My concern is the line-up, specifically to the lead-off spot and the presumed interest in not staking up your lefties. It's a fine group of players, position by position, but as an offensive lineup, the pieces don't fit quite as well as you'd think they should.

Out of the 13 roster spots that go to hitters, eight of them WILL be on the roster pending health (yes, Varsho won't be ready opening day so it's actually seven - I'll get back to that) because of contract or role. Additionally, one spot goes to the reserve catcher and one goes to the guy who gets the CF job until Varsho returns and the team seems REALLY impressed with Wagner so while not a lock, he's got a tight grip on a spot. So that's 10 of the 13. Even if you assume Clement is the default 3B (I don't) then you should assume that one of those three spots is another infielder since Clement's greatest value is to be the backup for the middle infielders so you either need someone like Jiminez for that, or someone like Barger or Martinez to play 3B. Of the other two, one will need to be a flexible reserve outfielder and the last spot could go any of several ways.

But out of this crowd, very few are a reasonable candidate to lead-off who gets that job is relevant to how you order the rest...and the elephant in that particular room is George Springer. One thing you want the first hitter to do is get on base. Last season, while he still gave you a fair rate of XBH his OBP was .303 which is... not ideal. In my view, and that of many others, he needs to hit in the bottom third of the order (if he's in the lineup that day at all) but it's a sticky wicket to tell your veteran star who's still owed $45m that this is what he's come to. I fear that the team will, at least to start the year, keep him in the spot and hope against hope for an unlikely revival from his bat. To be clear, I'm not saying he won't maybe be BETTER than last year, but enough better to be a valuable lead-off? That seems a lot less likely.

In the meantime, let's set that aside and discuss alternatives. Another thing you'd like to have up top is speed. The player that most clearly brings that skill is Andrés Giménez. Except his OBP last season was .298. On the other hand, he's nine years younger and that should mean he's got a better chance of recovering some measure of past success than Springer does. With both of these Spring Training will tell the team (if not us) a lot. 

If the team really is in love with Will Wagner, you'd think he might be in play here, particularly if they think he can be the primary 3B. Hs OBP was .337, and his total in 83 games at AAA is .445 - over his entire professional career it's 390 so there's promise there. They might even use him, though it's uncommon for a player in his 20's that's not a big power bat, as a sort of defacto regular DH (which would create an issue on the days you want Santander to DH) just to get his bat in the lineup. if you want Springer to DH, Wagner could at least play 3B on that day, same with Santander. Assuming he plays an acceptable third.

Beyond that there are contingencies that are even less cut & dried. For example, if you give Nathan Lukes the run he deserves in Varsho's CF, he's been a high OBP guy his whole career and a good baserunner. Can't be certain how he'd hold up over an extended run in the majors and I'm skeptical they'd throw an over-age rookie in as a lead-off hitter but I'd spend a lot of time this spring evaluating the possibility.

If Joey Loperfido could carry over his minor league production to the majors, he'd be in the conversation. In the minors he had a .377 OBP and stole 69 bases in 290 games, plus he has quite a bit more pop than Lukes. But his major league work so far has certainly not demanded the team throw him into that kind of role. You'd have to think he'd need to prove something first.

Similarly, Addison Barger improved his OBP at every level as he moved through the minors, including .391 at Buffalo last season. But rightly or wrongly he's viewed more as a guy with a power stroke than an on-base guy and would have to provide a lot of major league proof before being seen as a top-of-the-order option. Plus, he'd have to win a regular role on the team in order to get that run. It's very possible that both Barger and Wagner make the team but with some uncertainty about how they plug into the lineup every day. 

The common thread for all these "not Springer" guys the bat left handed. In one sense, it's a plus to put a lefty ahead of Bo-Vlad-Santander but the downside is that the #9 hitter - unless it's Springer and I'm not holding my breath on THAT - will also be a lefty and you'll have to do some tricky things to keep from stacking most of your lefties in too-close proximity. An example:

Wagner - 3B
Bo
Vlad
Santander
Barger - RF
Springer - DH
Varsho/Loperfido/Lukes
Kirk
Giménez

After the first at-bat, you'll have Kirk as the only RH in a string of four batters. That's not horrific but it's imperfect. Worse, you have the team's slowest guy batting right in front of the team's fastest guy. Also not ideal. But I'd not be completely down on this. I won't go through every potential variant here, You can play some with the possibilities if you like. But I do need to make two additional notes. If, somehow, they still end up signing Bregman the most obvious arrangement is probably 

Bo
Vlad
Bregman
Santander

and the rest to be sorted out. The other note is that there a notable possibility that Orelvis (a RH hitter) storms ST and wins a job based on his bat (DH or 3B) and that would make at-bats less readily available to Barger and Wagner. 

I still say a lot of this turns on how coldly calculating they will be when it comes to Springer if he's looking old again in the coming months. 

Edited to add: it occurs to me that in all these discussions I almost never mention Davis Schneider. It's not so much that I don't think he'll make the team, he seems to have the strongest case for the 13th spot within the context of everything else we know, but I don't see how he gets into the starting lineup regularly unless he parties like it's 2023. Rather, he will have the period of time that Varsho is on the IL to secure his status. At that point, barring a different injury, one of the younger players is off to Buffalo and he may or may not be the one.