The Matter of the Blue Jays' Bullpen

 [Amended] It's probably best to begin with a disclaimer about budget assumptions. Mark Shapiro indicated the budget would be something like what it was last year. Last year that was just under $222 million before the addition of the other budget lines that count towards the CBT tax threshold. Altogether that put them into the low 240's and, at the time, around 4-6 million over the first threshold of $237 million. 

It is reported that at the trade deadline they managed to shave that down under that line so, if true, that resets the clock and saves them from potentially paying a steeper penalty as for crossing the line in a second consecutive year. This year the first threshold is $241 million and the best estimates of current obligations suggests that the team has about $40 million to spend before crossing that line, although we have no indication they feel obliged to stay under it. Still, we'd only be guessing about how much more fits within Shapiro's "about the same" description.

So for the purposes of this unfounded speculation I'm going to suppose that apart from unicorn budgets they would try to stay under $50 million total additional commitments. Understanding for this thought experiment, that they're not spending the whole budget on the bullpen. Such an exercise is effectively crippled by the reports of them playing at the top of the SP market. Does that mean they'll commit half or more of their available budget to sign Burnes or Fried? Does that mean there's a budget exception (as with Soto) to sign one of them? Who the heck knows? I can only assume that if they want to add a SP and a bat that it throttles the idea of spending eight figures to add Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman (despite my "bring back former prospects" bias). So how might they build a (potentially - after last season you can't assume on anyone) worthy bullpen with a limited share of the budget?

Part of the answer is that you make trades, but since it's effectively impossible to predict such a trade, I'm speaking here in terms of free agency. 

Second caveat: there are a LOT of available relievers and major league teams have access to an insane amount of data that doesn't show up in stat lines.  I'm not even very good with publicly available stuff like spin rates and so forth. So my opinion is likely worth very little to anyone who is. Still, I like to write stuff about my team so here we are. Also, I'm going to set aside the aging guys who had surprisingly good years like Kirby Yates. Would I be at all surprised if he or someone like him is signed? No. But it only takes a superficial glance at these guys to understand that they'd be candidates. Not sure how much I'd be able to add. 

Top Priority:

Michael Soroka - assuming that they don't want to pay the price for a "proven" closer, this is probably the best upside play on the market. When the White Sox moved Soroka to the bullpen his season turned around completely. They used him often in a multi-inning role (16 games, 36 IP) which might be where some teams see his value, and some might want to try him as a starter again but if he was this good in longer outings you have to be tempted to use him at the end of games, though not confined to only one inning necessarily. In this (smallish) sample of 36 IP he struck out 60 (that's 15/9 IP) and had a 2.75 ERA/FIP while holding opposing batters to .189/.303/.291/.594 with the only blemish being a too-high walk rate of 5/9 IP. One might speculate that with more space between him and injury he'll recover his previous lower walk rate (it was 2.4/9 coming into 2024). He's going into his age 27 season.

The Sox paid him $3 million last year and you'd be getting a good deal at twice the price for '25. You could load up some incentives for appearances and saves and if possible lock him up for more than one season. At his age and with his pedigree it's a chance I'd take. Late reporting suggests he's getting offers as a starter which might put this out of reach.

RH support:

The team already has Green and Swanson so this is the one part of the 'pen that's not in panic mode But one of the better options to add via free agency (without shopping at the top of the market) is Paul Sewald. He got paid $7.35mm last year by Arizona and he took a bit of a step back from the previous three seasons which were successful and consistent. Mainly driven by allowing more contact and posting a slightly lower K rate. But over the previous three years combined he had a 2.95 ERA, a 135 ERA+, and 12.2 K/9 over 189.1 IP. It will be his age 35 season so it's hard to speculate about salary and term but I'm going to suggest he should fall in that same 7-8 million range. The problem here is whether he'll prioritize situations where he's first in line to close.

Edit to add: I overlooked Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin and Tommy Kahnle. From 2021 to 2024 Kittredge posted a 2.48 ERA over 174 IP with a 3.62 FIP and a 165 ERA+ and The Athletic notes that his 38.9 percent chase rate was the best in baseball. Martin is going into his age 39 season, which would normally suggest caution, but he has possibly the most elite ability in the league in one valuable skill - man doesn't walk ANYONE. His career BB/9 is 1.2and it hasn't been higher than 1.5 in any season since 2018. It's not just an odd skill either, his ERA is 2.82 in almost 200 IP since the short season. Kahnle has had one bad year (2018) since 2016 and he had a 2.11 ERA in 2024 and if I'm fair, I'd rather sign either of than Sewald. I'll also offer a nod to the idea of bringing back Yimi Garcia if he's healthy. There are a lot of worse options.

LH Needed

The one to chase here is AJ Minter. He's had one off year in his career and that was in 2019. Since then he has a 2.85 ERA (2.84 FIP) and a 151 ERA+ over 243 IP. He put up 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 and kept the ball in the park. One might quibble that he had a really low BABip compared to the rest of his career but that's really picking the nits. He made $6.2 million in Atlanta last year and he's no secret so he might be the most expensive guy I've mentioned. You'd probably need to go 2 and maybe 3 years to get him, something around 3/25 maybe? They should. 

A less expensive alternative is Danny Coulombe. He made 2.3 n Baltimore last year and they declined a $4 million option for 2025. But that was cheaping out unless they know something we don't. He did lose three months to injury last year but he pitched in the majors in September. Over four seasons ('21-'24) he posted a 2.75 ERA (3.17 FIP) to support a 148 ERA+. He has good ratios, keeps the HR rate down and isn't just a lefty killer. On the other hand he also had an outlier BABip in '24 of just .179 for whatever that's worth. Adding three of these would cost you somewhere between $17 and $23 million next year depending on which lefty you sign.

And yes, BTW, if someone is going to sign Tim Mayza to a minor league deal it should be Toronto. He wasn't a beast for the Yankees by any means but he wasn't a mess. They have, obviously, a better conception of WHY he was so bad for the Jays last season and whether there's hope for a rebound, so this might just be sentimentality on my part - but stranger comebacks have happened.

I guess the takeaway here is that once you get away from the expensive closer options, the overstuffed market isn't saturated with guys who inspire a ton of confidence that they're the answer to Toronto's bullpen situation so don't sleep too long unless you're confident in some helpful trades. On that point, while it's foolish to guess at trades, a line that got my attention is a youngster on the Marlins' roster named Andrew Nardi. The 26 year old lefty put up an ERA was an unpleasant 5.01 but he has a career K/9 of 12.4 (12.7 in '24) and his FIP was 3.33 so the ERA is likely very misleading. This is the kind of guy that you'd expect a team like the Jays to look at trading for. Robert Garcia, a slightly older lefty who pitched for the Nationals would be a similarly appealing target. Such under the radar guys are scattered around the league, sometimes playing for a team who'd rather turn that guy into, say, Leo Jimenez or Davis Schneider or some such.

We'll see. 

The Elegant Solution for a Vlad Extension

I remarked (in the bad place) a couple of months ago that for all the beat reporters and pundits and "insiders" that are asked to speculate about what it would take to extend Vlad Guerreo Jr's contract through the rest of his career none of them ever reference what, to me, seems the most blindingly obvious comp.

I'm recycling and expanding upon that thought here because it still seems to me to be really obvious.

There's a player out there right now, playing the same position (now) who signed at the same age that Vlad will be this offseason and their production through their age 25 season is stunningly comparable. Take a look:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019-2024) vs. Bryce Harper (2013-2018): Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com 

It's Bryce Harper, y'all. It couldn't be more obvious.

I mean, I get bringing up Rafael Devers as a more recent comp but the match is not really as clean. It's instructive in some ways as a guide to what contract inflation would look like, but in terms of age and production and anticipated future value, you can't do better than Harper. And you certainly can't suggest he'd be in the stratosphere with Soto.

It's true that Harper was a right fielder at the time, and that adjustment matters some but that tends to get washed away by the inflation anyway. After all, Vlad's whole major league career has come after Harper's deal was signed. The nature of this game is that the contract structure always spirals upward.

So, what was that contract? 13 years, $330 million, 25.38 million AAV

The breakdown on Cott's is slightly different from what you see above, with a $10 million first year, nine years at $26 million, and the last three at $22 million. And with a $20 million signing bonus which BR amortized over the length of the deal.  But it adds up the same. For the purpose of this exercise I'll lay aside potential bonuses and such.

That contract is still the 8th highest ever signed in total value (pending Soto's) and only two of those higher than his are infielders. 

So here's my framework:
First, take Harper's deal and add a 14th year (for enough to raise the AAV to at least $26 million) - that takes your total to $364 million. That would make him the highest paid infielder in the majors by total contract value and 4th overall, for now. That's just ONE million behind Mookie Betts so let's add $2 million more and that would make him 3rd overall (until Soto). There would be five infielders with a higher AAV, all of them shortstops except former SS Manny Machado, and Deavers.

That would sign him through age 39. My inclination would be to limit the first two seasons (until Springer is off the books) to something like $24 million each, and to taper off the last four to something like $20 each (on average) knowing that $20 million in 2038 will be a lot less money than it is now. Make $10 mil a signing bonus, another $10 million deferred (or a secondary payment on the signing bonus in, say, five years) and what's left works out to $27 million a year through the eight years on average, that would presumably be the heart of his productive years. Maybe given the arb estimate you do $30 per for years 3-6 and $17 million in those last 4 years? But now I'm into the weeds. If you just had to in order to make the deal, give him an opt out halfway through but I'd rather not.

So he ends up making more than his best comp, holding the biggest deal ever for an infielder and the third highest AAV for an infielder who's not a SS. And the fourth overall (which will be 5th by opening day). I feel like that checks enough boxes to get it done.

I'm sure some will say "Too much!" and maybe if you were signing a guy away from another teams as the Phillies did Harper you'd have to really ponder. But right now and for the rest of his career if you get this done, Vlad *IS* the Toronto Blue Jays. You either go to the wall to keep him or you strip the whole thing down to the kids and start over.

Let's not.

Thoughts on What's Next

 First things first. Extend Vlad. That's the first obligation whether or not it's the first thing that happens. I've got a take on what that could and should look like (hint: Start with Bryce Harper as a baseline) but that's for another day. 

Second, if you CAN sign Soto, do it. If indeed he's got a unicorn budget line as was said of Ohtani last winter, then just top every other offer. It's worth remembering that baseball salary inflation means that $42 million next year isn't the same as $42 million 12 years hence. 

Also, Sasaki, but that's more out of team control (because virtually everyone can play in that market) and it's likely to not happen until January 15 anyway. Plus, this one will mostly be about offense.

One caveat: I'm not in the fan-camp of "they must do big things to prove they are trying." Apart from signing Vlad which is an absolute must, I actually wouldn't be outraged by a team that gave runway to Martinez and Barger and Wagner et al. However, I can't imagine that's what they end up doing given the pressure that last season's failure put on everything and everyone. Moves WILL happen.

So this is my list of moves I find most appealing. Some of them would be canceled out by signing Soto, but not all of them. And some would actually be MORE desirable as a compliment to adding Soto. A few will hinge on Vlad playing 3B, most won't.

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My favorite: Vlad to 3B (maybe), trade for Brent Rooker. Of course, the A's are saying they don't want to trade him and if they do, you'd have to outbid a lot of other interested teams, which I would think starts with Orelvis and includes someone like Bloss and a couple of other guys with actual upside. Moving Vlad relates to Horowitz. If they don't think Vlad can play 3B against almost every RHSP then the alternate path is trade Horowitz to address another need (probably a RP they really like?) and that would mean 3B still needs attention.

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How about thinking big? The Jays have $45 million still to pay out to George Springer for what seems likely to be below average production. And he plays a position where replacements are easier to find than at, say, 3B. Meanwhile, in a very rare event, the St. Lousi Cardinals are described as wanting to shed payroll and work towards a reset. Among their contracts is one Nolan Arenado who's still owed $74 million (10 of which is being paid by Colorado) over the next three seasons. So a straight swap would save the Cards $19 million total and the Jays could address their 3B hole by just adding $4.5 million in '25 and $15 million in '27. Of course THAT deal wouldn't happen, you'd have to give the Cards some additional cash and probably a prospect or two for sweetener. Say you kick in $5 mil in each of Springers 2 remaining years which would mean they'd save almost half of what they still own Arenado, And say Horowitz along with another guy in the 15-20 range on their prospect list. That's in the right neighborhood I'd think - assuming you could convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause. To be clear, he seems to be in an offensive decline too, and there's risk there of continued decline, but the Springer money is already spent and if it can be redirected to 3B instead of the OF that's likely still an improvement, and leaves enough money to go chase another bat maybe.

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Sign Willy Adames or Alex Bregman. In theory, if they have around $40 mil to spend apart from whatever they would pay Soto, they should be able to build up around him and Vlad. 3B is a need - unless you just want to let Clement or one of the kids (Barger/Martinez) have it and put them at the bottom of the order and do your ads elsewhere. The options to add from the outside here are THIN once you get beyond these two. Well, there's Kim but he might miss half the season which doesn't scream "problem solved." I don't love the idea of paying Bregman through his age 37 season. There's real "Springer 2.0" risk there. But I'm writing this under the assumption that the Jays FO will not just "trust the kids" if they have an opportunity.

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Teo. I mean, realistically he could be back with the Dodgers by the time you read this. But just describing ideas I like here, no one else among hitters (except Soto) addresses the bad vibes of the last couple of years like bringing him home. Of course, he has to be open to increasingly being a DH as the years pass.

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Here's something that takes a bit more explaining. I see folks talking about signing Joc Pederson AND Tyler O'Neil and platooning them, but we already have the Pederson side of that in Spencer Horowitz. I hesitate to call it a platoon since they're obviously not playing the same position, but if Horowitz DHed and hit 4th against every* RHSP and O'Neil played left and hit 4th against every lefty, that's a very fine cleanup hitter. O'Neil wouldn't sign to only play against lefties so he'd get at least that many at-bats (subject to health) vs RH, but just hit 7th or so. Horowitz can sit vs LH and make space for others to rotate through DH. In this scenario O'Neil would be a lot cheaper add than Teo or Santander, maybe half the cost, which is a selling point as long as you make good use of the savings. Most would conclude this wasn't enough additional offense though, and this idea is only appealing if you have some idea what the other (offensive) add might be. The trade market has surprisingly few difference-makers. In fact, in most cases, whether potential trades or signings once you get past the crowd who'll expect to make at least $20m AAV, I'd just as soon see what Martinez, Barger, Loperfido, Rhoden, Clase etc could do. That would be a hard sell unless they signed some really impressive pitching too.

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Try for Luis Robert. I'm not sure whether the White Sox want to move everyone who might have value but he'd be a solid gamble on bouncing back. A contract for $15 mil next year is manageable and if he does get back to his ceiling those two $20 million option years would be an easy decision. 

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For completeness, I'll note that Taylor Ward could do the role I described for O'Neil above, and I only hesitate to mention him because the Angels aren't acting like sellers. But he fits. 

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So here's a dream scenario for the offense this offseason, all things that are not in conflict with each other and are not budget busters (assuming the Unicorn exception for Soto):

Extend Vlad
Sign Soto 
Trade for Rooker - likely Martinez++
Trade Springer+Horowitz+?? for Arenado

Lineup:

Soto
Bo
Vlad
Rooker
Arenado
Barger (Loperfido, Rhoden - spring would tell)
Kirk
Varsho
Wagner

Wildly unlikely but not inherently impossible. The kind of bold strokes necessary when it's your last big swing before potentially getting fired.

Offseason Calendar and Related Musings

 With the World Series ending, all the off-season calendar dates are now fixed. The Winter Meetings are set for December 9-11 and all the "housekeeping" dates (except for arbitration related work) happen before those meetings.

Beginning the day after the Series ends, players eligible for free agency can declare, but not yet negotiate with other teams. There's a five-day period in which teams have exclusive rights to discuss terms with their pending free agents. The Blue Jays only have one, Ryan Yarborough, whom they may well want to re-sign (I would) but they'll likely survey the market first.

Another thing that happens five days after the end of the Series (i.e. Monday November 4) is that qualifying minor league free agents are revealed. In simplest terms, a player acquired during the 2018 season or earlier qualifies (unless they have signed a new contract with their team - as Lazaro Estrada did a couple of weeks ago) as do any player in the system who has been released previously from their "first contract" (which is technically not the first but I'm trying to be simple). For example, Buffalo catcher Payton Henry hit free agency last winter and signed with the Jays. If that was a typical one-year deal (we won't know until the official list is published) then he'll be free again. Similarly, CF Je'Von Ward, who was signed to play in Vancouver this year, was previously released in 2023 which ended his "first contract" which would make him a free agent this winter even if he hadn't played six season in the minors. By my count the Jays' system has at least 14 players eligible for minor league free agency, but the only one(s) you should care about are Eric Pardinho and MAYBE Rainer Nunez. Unless of course they've already signed a new contract that we don't know about.

Also five days out, teams have to reinstate players on the 60-day IL to the 40-man roster. The exit of Yarborough frees up one spot, but the Jays need four, so next week at least three other guys will become free agents. Possibilities for these cuts are waiver-claim relievers Nick Robertson, Brett De Gues, Emanuel Ramirez, Luis Frias, Tommy Nance, and Easton Lucas. Notably Frias and Nance don't have remaining options for next year which would seem to decrease the value of hanging onto them. There are a few other possibilities but I think they will stick longer than this group. 

November 19 is the deadline for setting rosters ahead of the Rule 5 draft. There are not very many slam dunks to be added. I've seen some sites list rising prospect LHP Kendry Rojas as needing protection but I think that's wrong. Here's the rule:

Rojas was signed in the fall of 2020, just over a month BEFORE he turned 18. So he's played in four seasons and would not need to be added to the roster until next winter. I count at least 29 players in AAA or AA (anyone in A ball isn't getting selected) that are eligible, but most are guys that wouldn't be considered a significant loss. Lazaro Estrada, having signed a new 2-year contract, would seem likely to be added (else, why re-sign him?). Eric Pardinho might be protected, LH Trent Wallace and C Phil Clarke are dark horse candidates. Of course, each addition means someone is cut. Besides the pitchers already listed above, catcher Nick Raposo or Tyler Heinemann (who's out of options) but not both could be removed, Luis De Los Santos and Steward Berroa likely won't stay on the 40 throughout the winter. There's also the possible early release of arb-eligible guy's who may be non-tendered (more on that next).

The contract tender date is just three days later on November 22. Seems reasonable to guess that Zach Pop and Dillon Tate will not get tendered (though both would be welcome back on minor league deals if they don't get a major league offer this winter). Some speculate about Eric Swanson (I don't think so) and Jordan Romano (which we can't guess without knowing the severity of his medical condition) but there's no point in assuming an exit without knowing. It wouldn't be unreasonable for them to go ahead and clear Pop and Tate on the 19th rather than losing some of those other guys they might feel strongly about. 

On December 10, at the Meetings, they'll hold the draft lottery, and the next day the Rule 5 draft. At that point all the shuffling around the margins of the roster will be done. There may or may not be a few open spots for adding free agents but as noted, there are a lot of fungible guys. If you decide to sign, say, Alex Bregman, and you have to wave goodbye to Luis De Los Santos, that's not a complication.

I'll do a separate essay sometime soon about free agency but as a general observation, they need to add another catcher which could be either via trade of FA (I hope it's not just another waiver claim), 2-3 new relievers (depending on Yarborough and whether or not the shock us by cutting Romano) but again, this doesn't HAVE to be free agents, and - so the commonly held wisdom goes - at least one significant hitter at 3B, LF, or maybe DH. As far as I can tell there's only one significant hitter that MIGHT be available via trade, so free agency will likely be a big factor here. Not counting the Soto pipe-dream, I think there's less than a half-dozen guys who might be a difference maker. 

This has been sort of a test of my consideration of taking my musings back to relative obscurity. We'll see how it goes. Your thoughts and feedback are always welcome.