May in the Minors

AAA

There are actually a lot of names on the hitting side worth checking in on here. Let's start with newly recalled OF Alan Roden. He hit the ground running when he was sent down and never stopped. In 18 games he hit .361 with a 1.029 OPS. Somewhat surprisingly, the second man on the OPS ranking is OF Will Robertson. His .892 OPS is the best of his career and his walk rate has taken a dramatic upward spike. If he keeps this up he might make himself into an appealing trade chip as an add on. His OPS was .995 in May. Joey Loperfido turned his season around in late April and has an OPS of .854 in his last 31 games. Davis Schneider bottomed at with a BA of .151 on May 4, since then he's hit .275 and has an .832 OPS. How's Orelvis Martinez? Measured from April 19 he has an OPS of .818 which is...fine. He's supposed to be an elite hitter so there's work to do but he's out of that season opening slump. Little noticed or lauded 1B Rainer Nunez had a great May, logging a .313 BA and a .960 OPS.

On the pitching side there are fewer names and fewer familiar names, unless you've been reading my stuff for a while and recognize the guys I have a soft spot for. Take one-time bonus baby Eric Pardinho. Take away the game on May 8, he has a 1.08 ERA. The walk rate is still a bit too high but improving. Lazaro Estrada had a horrid April (weather maybe?) but in May his ERA was 1.85 and the rate stats support it. There's a swing man in here probably as good as guys like Lauer and Lucas at least but he'll wait his turn. Trenton Wallace is another "one bad game" story. In his first appearance he didn't get out of the first inning giving up 5 runs on four walks and three hits. Since then he has a 2.84 ERA over 31.2 innings including 38 K, yet like Pardinho, the walks are high. His career history has been to walk too many when he moves to a new level then gets it down nicely. Another who deserves a nod is swing man Andrew Bash. His rate stats are fine but not eye-catching, but his ERA is and it was below three each of the last two years. Very under the radar. 

AA

The offense in New Hampshire is still pretty ugly, with only a couple of bright spots. The brightest is RJ Schreck who got nothing much done in April but was maybe the best hitter in May with a 1.081 OPS nine homers in 97 at bats. There's not really available AB in Buffalo even though he deserves promotion. Varsho seems likely to need a few weeks with that hamstring (as Schneider gets another major league chance) but if Schreck keeps this up they'll need to find some. The other is Yohendrick Pinango  (who was promoted this weekend behind Schnieder's recall) who's slowed just a tiny bit in May but still had a .911 OPS for the month. Eddinson Paulino wasn't carrying the team but with so little going on here an OPS of .789 for May deserves notice.

Some of the pitching story here is about promotions. Juaron Watts-Brown and Grant Rogers are newly arrived and have small samples so I'll get back to them in a bit. Meanwhile hot-ticket reliever Ryan Jennings after running off a string of 10 scoreless innings over six appearances. He's only given up one run in five AAA outings since. CJ Van Eck also got promoted but the stats are just okay. What this team does have is solid relief work. Swingman Michael Dominguez has been great in both roles with a 1.42 ERA with 33 K (against 10 BB) in 25.1 innings. The stats say "ready for AAA." Connor Larkin, old for the level, has a 2.51 ERA and seven hits allowed in 14.1 IP with 20K.Geison Urbaez also has a tidy ERA (1.74) but the rest of the line is just mid. But then there's Hunter Gregory (like Larkin, he's 26) has 34 K and 10 BB in 24 IP and a 2.25 ERA in 17 games. Again, if there were not so very many retreads in Buffalo he might get a chance to move up. 

A+

To speak of Vancouver is to discuss Arjun Nimmala. He has a .900 OPS (third among qualified hitters in the league) with 9 homers (2nd) 14 doubles (1st), and 52 hits (3rd). And he's still among the youngest in the league. I had assumed he would develop at this level for the whole season but if there's no setbacks, I could see him Trying AA sometime in August just to get the new-level adjustment out of the way. Adrian Pinto was on a roll but the injury prone 2B/CF has been, wait for it, on the IL since May 10. While he recovers he's sitting on a .984 OPS. Then there's 1B Jackson Hornung. Who? That was my reaction.  The former catcher, drafted in the 16th round in '23, has blossomed at his new position and currently sports a .906 OPS. We'll see where this goes. 

Promotions are again, and especially, the story of the hour for the C's pitching. Trey Yesavage, Khal Stephens, and Gage Stanifer got their long-expected bump almost two weeks ago which led to a couple of the better starters here moving up. Juaron Watts-Brown was leading the Northwest League in strikeouts with 62 in 37.1 IP, against only 12 walks for a 3.62 ERA. This attributed to both more aggression and better control. Grant Rogers has less overwhelming rate stats but got results. He had a 1.82 ERA in 39.2 IP across eight starts. He is not a "stuff" guy so he might be another pitcher I get a crush on in A ball who never gets to the majors (see Nick Fraze for example). We'll see. Otherwise the pitchers to note are in relief, albeit with the caveat that dominating in the 'pen at A ball is often a mirage. Start with Pat Gallagher. He's sporting a 0.64 ERA on the season, only 14 hits and 10 walks in 28 IP with 30 strikeouts. Right there with him is Kai Peterson who had an insane K rate at Dunedin last year. It's more good than amazing now, but he has a o.93 ERA and a dramatically better walk rate. Chay Yeager's rate states are almost identical to Peterson's but the ERA is higher (though still fine) at 2.84.

A

There are some names here that, it seems certain, you'll see turn up as new entries on mid-season top prospect list updates. First among them maybe is 2B Sam Shaw. He didn't have a big sample in April but what he put up was poor, yet in 90 AB in May he's hit .322 with a .940 OPS. Another name suddenly on the radar ius catcher Edward Duran. Duran was the "lottery ticket" PTBNL when the Jays traded Jordan Groshans to Miami. He was pretty good the next year ('23) but regressed a lot in '24 (apart from inexplicably stealing 15 bases). This last winter, so it was reported in a piece I cannot now find and thus regrettably cannot credit, Duran took that personally and did the work. Already a well-regarded defender, Duran has advanced his game on both sides but particularly with the bat. it took him a minute to get going but he picked it up in mid-April. That was just warming up though. His slash for May is .345/.422/.563/.985 and he has at least one hit in every game for the month. Watch this guy. A couple of Dominican signings from a little while back that were said to show interesting promise are seemingly beginning to realize some of it. Both Jean Joseph and Yhoangel Aponte had dreary Aprils, both have rebounded nicely in May, with OPS of .835 and .806 respectively. Still pretty deep sleepers with a long way to go but, tip-of-the-cap.

I will lead the pitching review here with reliever Colby Martin. Though 24, he hasn't been pitching very long and his first season saw him walk 14 in 8.2 IP but the off-season work with the organization paid off. He's given up a modest 3 hits in 17.1 innings and didn't allow an earned run until last Friday. The walks are vastly improved (8) and he's struck out 22. He's said to have a big fastball and as long as he can keep putting it in the zone and getting outs he'll eventually catch some helium. Trey Yesavage ran roughshod over the league before getting promoted (as expected) racking up 55 strikeouts in 33.1 IP. Khal Stephen had an even better ERA but gave up a bit more contact. Still, he too was far too good for the league. Joining them was Gage Stanifer who's been piggy-backed with Yesavage but is throwing starter level innings. He was having his second go at the level because last year was a disaster, walking 50 in 59.2 IP - but he went out this offseason and found out he needed glasses. Boy did it pay off. He struck out 38 in 26 innings and while walking120 is still too much it's significant progress. And a 0.69 ERA speaks for itself. Next month we'll have sufficent samples in Vancouver to pour over. Gil Bautista had a couple of rough outings back-to-back this month but he's still the best remaining starter on this team (for now) with a 3.35 ERA and 41 strikeouts over against just 8 walks.

Complex

We don't have April to look back on here since they started play in May but a quick rundown of those off to a good start begins with David Beckles. He had two nondescript seasons (except for a pretty amazing walk rate for the island) in the DSL for the Yankees' system before being released and signing with the Jays. He carried that over to the Jays' DSL team last year but only hit .202 so no one looking in from the outside saw great promise. But he's off to a great start in '25 with a 1.012 OPS. Another OF, switch-hitter Yorman Licourt had an .887 OPS last season and so far is sitting at .942 as this one begins. This seems a trajectory to gain him some buzz if it continues. Second baseman Drew Jemeson has a 1.162 OPS but he's *24* in the Complex so massive grain of salt. 

Let me take a sec to look at Emmanuel Bonilla. You remember the highly praised bonus baby of January 2023? He had a nice season in the DSL that year, and was moved up to the complex for the '24 season. Through June 8, in 25 games, he was seemingly right on track, hitting .290 with an OPS of .847 but then - bad things happened. In 100 more AB that season he had SEVEN hits, two of them for extra bases. He's hard to imagine going off of a steeper cliff than that. So he's back in the complex, of course, and it started poorly. 3 Hits in his first 45 at bats. But since then he's on a seven-game hitting streak (I now, but you have to start getting off of the mat somewhere) in which he's gone 8 for 24 with a 1.012 OPS over this tiny sample. MAYBE he's figured something out?

The samples stretch even thinner on the pitching side but do take note that Johhny King (last year's 3rd round steal) has yet to allow a run in his first 8 IP while striking out 12 walking 3. Good start. Landen Mauroudis has made five appearances working his way back from elbow surgery and likely crosses down to join the D-Jays before June is over. 

Also, if you still haven't got enough, the DSL Jays start play today (June 2) with carryover 1B/C Randy Soto who did well last year and likely all of the highly paid and promising players signed in January (Chris Polonco, Juan Sanchez, Kennew Blanco, Elaineiker Coronado) so, let's check back in a month.

Roster Speculation Too Early - Part 2

 Let's start with the bullpen because there seems less to say. There're two things here - one is that it's almost impossible to foresee a trade for a reliever coming in principle. I can't remember a trade for a pitcher that anyone rumored more than 24 hours before it happened. The other is that there's not really an obvious way to add a good reliever without losing a good reliever - barring injuries.

Eight MLB spots available. Hoffman, Garcia, Green, Rodriguez, and Swanson are effectively certain when healthy, as well-paid veterans. Likewise Little who has made himself indispensable. You're down to two spots already. If/when Sandlin recovers, he should be on the roster (though he technically has options. If Turnbull is added to the rotation (more on that in a bit) then Lauer is at last a candidate for long relief. That would be eight and yet Fluharty has earned a spot, Fisher has yet to be touched, Urena is at least present, and Burr will have to clear waivers if he's not added. They're obviously not all healthy, but even with three on the IL and Turnbull not quite here, there's really just one spot held by a dispensable guy. Of course, you don't know who will be healthy two months from now, so it could happen - but as of now it doesn't look like it HAS to happen.

The rotation though, there's a chance something big could happen depending on developing situation. Within two weeks, Turnbull will bump either Francis or Lauer but the one who survives that is not above being pushed aside for an acquisitions in a couple of months. But the complexity here comes from (again) the injury list. To be blunt, if Scherzer is still a question mark in two months then you have to treat it like he's not going to solve your need (of course if he is healthy there's much less of a problem here). Alek Manoah thinks he can get back in August some time, and if they make an acquisition they might block him (barring some newer injury on the staff) but they might well do so anyway.

But again - as it stands now, supply is an issue. There are only seven teams that have the appearance of being clear sellers at the moment. There might be as few as 10 at the deadline and the crop of good and theoretically available pitchers is even thinner than the hitters. Andrew Heaney might be the prize of the market in July. Go look at the rosters and count the number of guys that you'd trade for and expect a clear upgrade.

And the thing about both of these posts is that most of these consideration will have at least some application in free agency, If you count Manoah they'll have three rotation spots set, and if there's a big contract it would seemingly be a SP, but barring something really wild like going out and getting Tucker, there's not a buyers market in the off-season.

But off-season aside, I'll be pretty surprised if there's a game changing trade this summer and I expect considerable internet unrest even though it's largely out of their hands. 

Roster Speculation Too Early

 

 It's the time of year when you start seeing people speculate about what a contending version of the Jays might do in July to augment the roster - which has downstream implications for how the offseason would develop. What follows is loaded to the gils with assumptions that may not, in fact, manifest but it's at least one scenario that leads to a perhaps unexpected conclusion.

Let's first stipulate that the three areas of potential concern generally cited are SP upgrade, RP addition, and a RH hitter. Taking the last first, we're obliged to note that due to incumbent performance and contracts, there are two(ish) positions you can even entertain as open to upgrades. One is 3B and there's a fairly good chance that we'll be confident by July that there's no option available that promises a better outcome than we can get from Addison Barger. Yes, hot players can go cold and fail ala Davis Schneider but Barger was always a better prospect with more talent than Schneider who was a complete aberration when he was called up. 

The other is left field, more or less. For the sake of this exercise I'll call Santander our regular DH. When he's not Springer will be for the most part so either way, on opening in the outfield IF you operate from the premise that they dare not trust Lukes and the kids as they good into a playoff drive. That's NOT my position but if you assume that's a problem best solved internally then there's no real way to augment the batting order without something way more radical than this team is willing to do. Here's the thing though: go to FanGraphs and filter for RH hitting OF, ignore the players who are obviously not available, and look for players (theoretically) certain to be better down the stretch than Lukes/Roden/Clase/Loperfido and the list gets really short. Take out the few that are so young and controllable that their current team would be foolish to trade him and it's shorter still. 

Austin Hayes, Ramon Laureano and Tayler Ward. That's the three with a wRC+ higher than Myles Straw has right now. Three. Do I need to point out Laureano's combined WRC+ for the five seasons before this one combined is 101? He's not your savior. Hayes comes in slightly better at 106, but he was a free agent that they passed on last winter. Which means everyone looking to add an OF bat will be trying to get Ward - and he might not even be available.

Bottom line, barring a shocking acquisition of a player basically no one thinks is available - don't expect a big move here.

For the sake of length I'll discuss the pitching options in a separate column. 

Minor League Notes

 

I'm not really going to try and keep up the pretense of a systematically formatted overview here. I've never been satisfied with previous attempts and (as always) there's already five or so other columns on this same topic out there, perhaps with more insight. So I'm just relaying what I find to be worth remarking on - though I will go level by level.

This is the time of year that's most difficult for "scouting the stats." If you've followed my writings for a while you probably know that I kind of hang my hat on trends. Which players seem to be moving in a positive or negative direction? Likewise over the course of a season we get constantly reminded again that even though "month" is an entirely arbitrary end point, a good player can have a horrid month, and a marginal guy (at best) can look like an all-star for a month. So when you're sitting on the first weekend in May, you don't have enough of a sample to say very much about trends, and you don't want to over-react to one month of work.

Case in point, one Orelvis Martinez. Our #5 prospect (on the aggregate list) is stinking it up so far. He's hitting a not-exactly robust .151 with a .523 OPS and 31 strikeouts in 22 games. It would be unwise to panic but he's not beating down the door. In the "trending" department here you might note Joey Loperfido. After a 14 game cold streak in which he went 8 for 49, his BA was sitting at .188 (.607 OPS) but he's 7 for his last 19 (as of May 1) so maybe he'll continue to heat up. For good news we look to Jonatan Clase who's whose hitting .351 with an .872 OPS and he's already stolen 13 bases. there's a non-zero possibility that the Jays let Roden step back here and regroup, as they did with Wagner and Schneider, and see how Clase does with some major league run. Give a hat-tip to corner infielder Riley Tirotta too. he's got a .910 OPS so far. 

Among the pitchers it's been a month of waiting on guys to get it together and step up to their expectations a bit. For example, Jake Bloss (#4) got knocked around in his first three starts (to the tune of a 10.32 ERA) but has thrown 9 shutout innings over his last two starts, walking one and striking out 12. Less heralded, but with a good track record, Trent Wallace wasn't pilling up his usual high K rate but he's struck out 25 in his last 16.1 IP and the results have followed (2.76 ERA over those starts).

In AA, the Fisher Cats offense is making the Blue Jays group look like league leaders. There's ONE guy who's doing good work and it's not the guy anyone would have predicted a month ago. Yohendrick Piñango (guy needs a nickname I can spell) is the only hitter with above average output so far, sporting a .964 OPS. The next highest OPS is #26 Jace Bohrofen's .691 and he's got 33 strikeouts already.

The pitching, on the other hand, has been getting good results in most cases - so maybe this is a league/weather fluke favoring pitchers? - and the highest profile guy here is probably Ryan Jennings (#25) who kinda went sideways for a week but also has 21 K in 14.1 IP.

Now the best feel-good story in the system, at least among hitters, belongs to Arjun Nimmala. His six homers already leads the league despite being much younger than the average player in the NWL. He's also hitting .303 with a .940 OPS. 2024 6th round pick Aaron Parker is off to a sold start (.819 OPS) and #29 OF Victor Arias (.812) are also showing well, as is #20 prospect Adrian Pinto (.819).

Ranked prosect Juaron Watts-Brown (19) has been pretty dominant (leads the NWL in strikeouts) and is building momentum towards a AA promotion maybe by the end of the month. He has 37 strikeouts (against only 8 walks) in 22.2 IP. Not ranked and largely unheralded coming into the year, Grant Rogers has a 2.22 ERA over 5 starts. He's the oldest starter here and needs to be challenged with a promotion son. Three or four good relief arms so far too that might be mentioned here over the coming 4 months.

The Dunedin squad has some interesting stories. Start with SS Manuel Beltre, who's on his third try with the D-Jays. For two years he hasn't even been average offensively, but in this early small sample he's got an .885 OPS with a significantly better BB/K ratio. RF Yeuni Munoz who had been considered interesting but not ranked on anyone's list has 5 homers in 16 games and sports a 1.053 OPS. Shortstop Bryce Arnold, an undrafted free agent in 2023, would have seemed to be just an org guy but at the moment he's got a .983 OPS so maybe we keep an eye on him. CF Braden Berry is hitting .347 (.868) has been solid. Another sleeper to watch is also an undrafted FA - 1B Payton Powell. He's walked 13 times and struck out only seven. Gonna need some XBH though.

If there's a pitching companion to Nimmala's early season success, it's Trey Yesavage. The 2nd ranked prospect in the system sports a 2.31 ERA and 36 K in 23.1 IP. Draft mate Khal Stephen (9th )is also dominating with a 2.19 ERA in five outing. The two of them also look like candidates to move u in the next few weeks, Watts-Brown and Rogers moving to make way for these two would be my guess. Another guy to watch is Greg Stanifer, a SP who's been piggy-backed with Yesavege this season. Last season he walked 50 in 59.2 IP - this year he has 8 in 18 with 9 hits and 24 K. His ERA is 0.50 which it eye-popping. Also shout-out to last year's 9th round choice Colby Holcombe who has a 2.25 ERA and also has to be on the radar to move up.

Meanwhile on the IL watch Brandon Barriera (ranked 13th) just past one year out from his internal brace elbow surgery and Landen Moroudis (14th) is three weeks short of the one year anniversary of his and both are reportedly on the cusp of pitching again in games that count. With the Complex League starting up this weekend, the two of them are likely to see some game action there and if all goes well be penciled in to fill a couple of the openings that will arise with the D-Jays before mid-season. Alek Manoah's IBS was roughly a month after Moroudis' so this time next month we'll be hearing, barring a setback, about the approach of his first game action. Ricky Teidemann's surgery was in July so put him down as maybe a month behind Manoah.

Speaking of the GCL, where the begin play today (May 3) their initial roster (subject to change) features an unusually intriguing quintet of SP. Three high-school draftees from the '24 draft, highly praised (and 11th ranked) Johnny King, intriguing Carson Messina, (28th), and under-the-radar Troy Guthrie will join two graduates who earned their tickets out of the DSL last summer. Cuban Silvano Hechavarria (21) had a 1.84 ERA and impressive ratios, given his age relative to the league he might get the first promotion to the D-Jays here beyond the rehabbers. Sann Omasako, a 19 year old Brazilian, had a 2.49 ERA in the DSL and only walked 7 in 76 IP over 19 games ('23-'24) in the Dominican. On the offensive side, the organization will be trying to get ranked prospect (27) Emmanuel Bonilla on track after his '24 season went badly off the rails. Obviously we'll know more in a month.

More Reflections on a Potential Vlad Deal.

In light of Shapiro's interview and because why not, I'ma do it again. IF they do make a deal that includes this season, 2025, Vlad's wanting 15 years (through his age 40 season) can work in their favor. If you start with $500 million in total value, which is a figure Vlad called his floor, and you make the last 4 seasons 20-20-15-15 (this is an off the cuff example) and round up the '25 salary to 30, that's $100m and leaves $400m over 10 in the middle.

The extended length makes the overall AAV 33.33 which is good for the Jays, in the peak years he'd get (and be worth, for all but one of them) $40m or more annually which should appeal to him, and his agent has to know that no other team is going to give him 15 years.

To illustrate in more detail, I'm going to steal the chart from Ben Nicholson-Smith's article that I've referenced before:

Here is a theoretical illustration of how such a deal might be structured:

30-36-42-45-45-45-45-40-40-36-30-22-20-12-12

What I'm doing here is minimizing the number of years that, if he produced more or less just what these projections suggest, that they would be noticeably underwater in terms of overpaying for that year's production. First, take note that BNS doesn't include 2025 on his chart but assuming he'll be worth $50m in '25 (using this formula) seems reasonable.

So to revise his chart and make it easier to follow...

Year	contract year	age	cost of 1 WAR	projected WAR	Value	proposed salary
2025	1	26	10	5	50	30
2026	2	27	10.3	5	51.5	36
2027	3	28	10.61	5	53.05	42
2028	4	29	10.93	4.5	49.17	45
2029	5	30	11.26	4.5	50.65	45
2030	6	31	11.59	4.5	52.17	45
2031	7	32	11.94	4	47.76	45
2032	8	33	12.3	3.5	43.05	40
2033	9	34	12.67	3	38	40
2034	10	35	13.05	2.5	32.62	36
2035	11	36	13.44	2	26.88	30
2036	12	37	13.84	2	27.68	22
2037	13	38	14.26	1.5	21.39	20
2038	14	39	14.69	1	14.69	12
2039	15	40	15.13	0.5	7.56	12

So that's surplus value for the first 8 years, and never more than $4 million underwater until the last year. In fact, if he underperformed this and only produced 4 WAR on average in years 2-6 he'd still not be underwater in the first 8 years. Of course it's not impossible to have a Prince Fielder situation but there's not really any way to pre-plan for that, it's the risk you take. Since I didn't include a totals line - that's 48.5 WAR, valued at $566.16 million, purchased for the low low price of $500 million.

Now, there's one more layer to this. Team payrolls 15 years ago were, in the top 12 spenders, at least $100m less than they are now (actual payroll, not CBT figures which wasn't a thing 15 years ago). The low spending teams don't inflate that much the mid-to large spenders do. If you project that forward then by the end of a 15 year deal the Jays payroll might easily be in the area of $350 million. In that context a $12m player is 3.4% of the payroll. For comparison, 3.4% of the 2025 payroll is almost $8.3m - Roughly what Dalton Varsho's making.

The point of all that is that if you structure the deal as I'm suggesting, Vlad's salary when he's nearing the end wouldn't be any sort of impediment to building a winning team. The whole gamble here is whether, in the main, he produces a career similar to what these generic projections would suggest. Think of it like this: if he is completely washed by 36 and gives you no value at all in the last four years, these projections still value him at roughly $495 million up to that point.

IF you - as the Blue Jays - have a value estimation system that produces generally similar projections to the publicly available Fangraphs system then it's not a massive risk to go to $500 million for that period of time unless you think he's gonna start crumbling before his mid-30s.

Aggregate Top Prospect List

  Every year for...a while now...one of the actual moments when I contribute, maybe, some value beyond just speculation is the aggregate list. I am obliged to wait on the respected outlets to publish which can vary the timing, and most years - like this one - I have to eventually give up on Fangraphs and figure them in when the eventually publish a Jays list. 

As always, I'm using a 30 point scale even though I'm using a list that only goes to 10 and another that only goes to 20, but you frankly can't construct a list worth writing about if you're only considering each lists' top 10. If you follow the team's prospect reporting you could probably name the top 10 vote getters off the top of your head, though the order might vary. What this means is that there are sharp drop off in points as players don't appear on the shorter lists but turn up on the longer ones. What I'm saying is that it's a terribly imperfect system, but whatchagonnado? At a minimum you can take note of which players are on more lists. 

Once the Fangraphs list drops (if as when) I'll recalculate. For now this is an aggregate of the Baseball Prospectus Top 10, the Athletic's Top 20 (KLaw), MLB Pipeline's newly published Top 30, Baseball America's Top 40, and Scott Mitchell's Top 50 for TSN. The Top 12 here appear on at least four of those lists so might fairly be considered the Top tier. I happen to be obsessive about round numbers so this list goes to 30, but that's only because the guys I want to include amount to more than 20 and I'm incapable of doing a "Top 23" or whatever. I'll mention where each of these will likely play in the upcoming season, assuming health and a couple of other notes, maybe, but I won't presume to including scouting info worked up by other professionals that you can find in the write-up of their lists. I'm not going to pretend to be that smart or hijack the work of others. So, with that said...

1. Arjun Nimmala (176 points) - there were no unanimous obvious #1 this year but I'm glad to see I wasn't the only one who got super-hyped about this guy. I'm not sure whether they start him back at Dunedin until it warms up but the bulk of the year he'll be at Vancouver unless he collapses. He's always going to be young for every level so there's no need to speed him through the system, at least not yet. Earliest Major league run, late 2027, easily could be 2028. Assigned to Vancouver for Opening Day.

2. Trey Yesavage (172) - Observers are pretty sure that he could hold his own at AA right now, but it's more likely that he'll go about six weeks (or roughly six starts) in Dunedin, another six in Vancouver and then head off to New Hampshire in early July. Whether or not he so dominates that he gets a taste of AAA in September remains to be seen but he might not be seriously tested until he hits AA. That track would have him as a candidate to force himself into the rotation in the second half of 2026 but a main contender to do so in the spring of '27.

3. Ricky Tiedemann (162) - He'd like to be back in real games late in the year, but if he got to, say, 20 IP that would be a win. Maybe he goes to the AFL if they think he could stand to build him up some more to platform for next spring. But given that his last challenge is refining his control, that particular concern isn't going to be fully resolved by Opening Day 2026 regardless. Best guess is that you should assume you're waiting until 2027 for him to have a full shot at the majors.

4. Orelvis Martinez (158) - if dude had a clear defensive position he'd very likely been the consensus #1. It's not crazy to say only Vlad has more power in the entire system - and it's kinda close. He's not as good an all around hitter but the power is legit. But as long as they don't know where they can play him - other than DH - there will be hesitation. As much as I've expressed the view "put him at DH and let him cook" - I don't think they will...yet. They'll give him about two months in Buffalo (watch where he gets the defensive reps) and see how things go for the major league squad. After that, it's all about the circumstances. Now that I think of it, I've never heard a scouting report explain why they never even thought about seeing how he handles the outfield - but there must be a reason. He'll likely get major league run before this season is over.

4. Jake Bloss (158) - I hang onto this as we get reports of him not hitting on all cylinders this spring after he got roughed up for Buffalo after the trade. The smart people think that he's really quite good. If healthy he'll be in Buffalo and as things stand now, when the Jays need someone not already on their roster to start some games for them, Bloss is (at least for now) the guy who'll get a shot. (Edit: well, not so much)

6. Josh Kasevich (142) - nominally behind Leo Jimenez on the depth chart because the latter is in his last option year and Kasavich doesn't have to be added to the 40 man until the next off-season, Kasevich is fully capable of playing an above average major league shortstop right now (as is Jimenez but perhaps has a little less arm). His bat took a step forward in the second half last year though lack of power still haunts him. He's said to be off the charts in all the things you want in a ballplayer that you cannot measure statistically. Given the roster consideration, it's fair to say that it's more likely you don't see him in a Blue Jays uniform until '26.

7. Kendrys Rojas (135) - he's going to be at AA and it may well test him at first but if he stays healthy and succeeds at this level you should be as excited about him as any of the SP above him. Expect him sometime in 2027.

8. Alan Roden (129) - if we used the phrase "with a bullet" for these lists it would be Roden it was applied to, Like Kasavich, off the charts in every intangible and unmeasurable part of his game - and surely the most intelligent player in the system if not arguably anywhere in the minors. He does everything on the field well (that you'd ask him to do) except max out his power potential and they're optimistic about that - after all he's said to be maybe the strongest player in the system. 

9. Will Wagner (123) - yes, also a tie, but Wagner is THIS close to losing his rookie eligibility and he will graduate possibly by the end of April (also why Jonatan Clase, despite being on some people's list, isn't here because he BARELY had enough active days to lose eligibility) and it seemed unfair to put him ahead of Roden given this circumstance. No reason to expect him to ever be back in the minors unless it's rehab.

Speaking of graduating, other young players besides Clase who are not yet established and are still "rookies" in all but the official sense who would likely be high on this list include Addison Barger and Leo Jimenez.

10. Khal Stephen (117) - I'll admit that I'm not yet fully sure how you pronounce that first name. I began thinking "Cal" but maybe it's "Call" but anyway - his model is going to look a lot like Yesavege except maybe somewhat slower. Something like two months at Dunedin, two at Vancouver, and two at New Hampshire until they find a level that challenges him. Then, if things go reasonable probably start back in AA next spring but spend most of that year in AAA. As I said, like Yesavege but a little behind him. Could be second half of '26 if needed, probably '27. He's been named Dunedin's Opening Day starter.

11. Johnny King (97) - a LOT of buzz around this guy, but he's a high school guy and almost always those start the year in the Complex and establish themselves before being considered to go across town to the DJays. Few there be that move beyond Florida in their first professional season.

12. Fernando Perez (93) - Regularly noted to be a guy who's a very good *pitcher* despite not as much "stuff" as the other guys here. Almost certain to spend the whole season in Vancouver and, if healthy, be on track to compete for a major league job in '28.

13. Landon Maroudis (88) - Recovering from the TJ brace procedure and targeted for a early-summer return to competition. Whether he gets out of Florida at all will depend on how quickly he gets his groove back. 

14. Adam Macko (83) - Yet another injury setback, not the arm or shoulder but the knee. When he gets game ready he'll surely try to build up his innings at AAA, but I confess I'm starting to get Nate Person vibes here (never allowed to gain momentum because of some weird health issue). 

15. Brandon Barriera (71) - saw some reporting (again, hit those original source sites for proper reports) that he looked in Spring last year like he had but his 2023 problems (reported out of shape and ended up dealing with multiple injuries) behind him. The buzz was back but then he got hurt early and also had TJ (I THINK the brace procedure also?) and so will still be rehabbing when the season starts. If he really learned his lesson and used this time to continue to refine the rest of his body, he might take off this year. But like Maroudis, seems unlikely to get out of Florida until 2026. Both of them would be on track for the back half of '28 or so for MLB debuts.

16. Charles McAdoo (58) - Didn't hit as well after the trade, and not entirely locked into a position, I suspect he'll start the year at AA. Another factor on that is that there's not going to be a ton of at bats available in Buffalo at least early on. How fast he comes is harder to predict than some of those mentioned above.

17. RJ Schreck (55) - A solid case can be made that he should break camp in Buffalo. But depending on who gets squeezed off of the major league roster there might not be the at bats there for him just yet. For example, there's a solid chance that the regular starting outfield would be Steward Berroa, Jonatan Clase, and Joey Loperfido, and Will Robertson is still here trying to scratch out some playing time. Until injuries or poor performance changes the situation, if they want him to play it will be at AA to start. (this is also a factor with McAdoo).

17. Sean Keyes (55) - College hitter, showed well in Florida, power-over-contact guy. Assigned to Vancouver to start the year. Kinda early to know how his career progresses. They'll be looking to see if he can stick at 3B through the system.

19. Juaron Watts-Brown (50) - My guess is they want to see him consolidate a bit in Vancouver early on and hope he earns a promotion to AA early-mid summer. The uncertainty over whether he eventually moves to relief makes a major league ETA pure guesswork. 

19. Adrian Pinto (40) - An Altuve type physically, an injury history that defies description, a bit of crowding in AA might slow his promotion schedule but if injuries don't sidetrack another season he'll surely finish there.

20. Chris Polonco (38) - this year's premium international FA signing, like all those before him he'll get his professional start in the DSL.

21. Angel Bastardo (36) - I'm a skeptic about his control, but the Rule 5 pick will spend most if not all of this season recovering from elbow surgery so he'll have to try and prove me wrong in '26 - if he can stick on the major league roster. He might return late in the season but I'm not certain they'll want to carry a recovering rookie in the major league 'pen while making a playoff push.

22. Jonatan Clase (34) - likely be a good bit higher but the sources can't seem to get on the same page about rookie eligibility. BA thinks he's eligible, Pipeline doesn't. The rule, which apparently hasn't been updated to reflect the fact that rosters no longer blow up in September, says 45 days on the active major league roster (which he has) but not to include days after September 1 (which would drop him back below the line). I do wish they would get it together on this. Meanwhile, get you some tickets to head down to Buffalo (seriously, it's not impossible that they could field a legit potential major leaguer at every spot in the order - other than catcher - on any given night). Strong chance he breaks through this season.

23. Eddinson Paulino (33) - After the trade he was assigned to AA and only got into four games due to injuries. The versatile infielder likely starts back there just to consolidate a bit and let the organization watch him play up close, particularly as the primary SS (for which he's the most appealing candidate). With at least two highly regarded SS between him and Toronto, he'd have to show out to spent a lot of time in AAA this year but that doesn't mean there's nothing here.

24. Ryan Jennings (31) - There are some half dozen or so of these guys about which one might fairly say (based on reporting) "the organization seems to love this guy" - Jennings has become one of them. Most observers think he could (at least) hold his own in a major league  'pen right now but the team has so far mostly brought him along as a starter, until he came back from over a month on the IL last August and pitched out of the New Hampshire bullpen. Given he only accumulated 10 IP in AA, one assumes he'll start back there - and how soon he progresses depends on his role. 

25. Jace Bohrofen (29) - A huge August in Vancouver seems to line him up for a AA assignment this spring. There's significant OF depth in front on him so there's no reason to expect fast movement unless he's an absolute beast. 

26. Emmanuel Bonilla (24) - He started his year last season in the complex and did fine work, for a time - then he went off a cliff to an astonishing degree. He'll need to reset back on the same level unless he really impresses decision makers this spring. If he gets back on track then some significant portion of the year will be with the D-Jays. Still, even with steady progress it could easily be 2030 before he's thought to be ready for a major league shot. And of course, things could always go not-well.

27. Carson Messina (17) - Just go back and review what I said about King. Basically same thing applies here. The two given the Jays the potential of four legit prospects for the rotation arriving towards the end of the decade.

28. Victor Arias (14) - he only got 11 games at Vancouver late last season, decent chance he spends all of '25 back there though he has the potential to break-out and force a AA shot. Conservatively, 2028 would be a good ETA guess.

29. Mason Fluharty (12) - Would have a fairly solid shot at pitching in the majors this year if injuries open a path (there's hardly anyone in the likely major league 'pen that's optionable other than Brenden Little. He's not a sure thing though). Just note him as a AAA guy waiting for his shot (yes, I spent a lot of time believing in Eisert and Danner but there's a lot more noise around this guy).

30. Payton Williams (11) - Seems ready for AA. The best 1B in the system not named Vlad. You look at him and think "Rowdy" but the reports on his defense are much better. Probably a legit contender to make the majors beginning in '27.

30. Sam Shaw (11) - The guy who's probably situated to play the most innings at SS in Dunedin after the advancement of Nimmala, but he's listed as an OF so maybe they gave up on that already?. Got this spot entirely because Kieth Law ranked him 20th.

I will probably do some follow-ups that list positional depth for players with a reasonable shot at eventually playing in the majors in terms of their eventual arrival. Obviously not all of them will ever make it, or at least not in Toronto, but there are (not counting reliever because, ya know, who really knows?) 40-50 guys in the system that might actually make it.  Not that they all WILL, but any given one COULD. 

On the Come Up

 Originally the title was "Four on the Come Up" but eventually I decided I was unnecessarily slighting at least one other. But adding others just makes the point stronger so here we go.

There are two forces at work with the 2025 Blue Jays that are in some tension. The one everyone talks about is the addition of veterans from outside the organization in order to maximize their chances in a year that might be the end of the Vlad/Bo era. It's not a wrong or poor choice to do so but the natural result of that is having seven of the nine spots in most batting orders accounted for. Vlad, Bo, Varsho, Santander, etc are going to be out there - barring injury - in the vast majority of games (and STILL the commentators muse occasionally about being "one bat short"). Third base and, kinda, DH are the only two places where there's some flexibility.

And yet, there are 4-5 young, not yet established, players that in an ideal world you'd really like to see blossom into legit contributors this year. Let me elaborate.

Addison Barger - some observers seem to be acting like Ernie Clement is that natural incumbent at 3B because he got so many starts last year and played very good defense there. But he doesn't have an offensive profile that screams "every day starter on a contending team." His game plays up a lot better coming off of the bench. Barger has the best natural claim to the right to make his case to own the job. He's a steadier defender, insofar as we've been told, than Martinez, has a cannon for an arm while Wagner's is short for the position, and has a power and on-base upside far beyond anything reasonable to expect of Clement. If he can approximate his minor league performance in the majors, he'd insert a very valuable lefty bat into the middle of their order. In 153 AAA games he hit 41 doubles and 21 homers with a .372 OBP. If for some reason (noted below) they choose differently for 3B, there would be a strong case for Springer and Santander soaking up a lot of DH at bats while Barger plays RF.

Orelvis Martinez - Everyone interest in Blue Jays prospects at even a causal level knows this guy is a legit 30+ homer guy whose power comes easy. Buzz is that he's already showing evidence of adding the needed polish to his overall offensive game with better plate discipline and bat control. Reservations exist about his defensive position, but it seems some in and around the org are coming around to a point I've been making for a couple of years - who cares about the glove, let him DH and watch the young man cook. If you think you need to prepare for Vlad to leave, don't daydream about Alonso or someone - let Mattingly school Orelvis at 1B as a plan B. Of course, there's a non-zero chance that he'll show enough consistency at 3B to win that job, which is fine if they find a way to make sure Barger gets plenty of run. In this sense (and some of these other scenarios) what would open doors is the return of George Springer's tendency to spend some time injured. Not to wish harm on him or anyone but were I a gambler I feel pretty good about a bet that both these young men will produce more offense than Springer in 2025. But the team will be slow to reduce his playing time if he's healthy.

Will Wagner - this is the trickiest situation on the list because the team seems convinced that he'll be an important part of this team but there's no clean fit anywhere. He's played a little 3B but that arm, his best position is 2B but that's no longer an option. He can spell Vlad at 1B but that's not all that many at bats. He could DH but then Vlad or Barger would have to sit. You could, with a major league coaching staff, engineer an optimization plan that would have Barger at 3B or RF against MOST RHP, Wagner at DH (except when occasionally spelling Vlad) against most RHP Martinez at DH or 3B (depending on how heavy the defensive demand will be that day at 3B) against virtually every LHP as well as DH when Wagner is playing 1B and 3B when Barger is in the OF while an outfielder is the DH. For someone like me it would be very complex because it turns on a lot of things (like whether you're facing a fly ball hitting team or your SP allows a lot of grounders to the left side on any given day) but you COULD maybe split the at bats of two positions among three guys here and not let any of them rust too much.

Alan Roden - by now you've seen all the hype, and heard Ross call him by name as someone to watch ad I agree. He's got a lot of skills to bring to the team, particularly as a lead-off hitter, but what he doesn't have is an obvious position on the major league team. Again, barring injury. The kid isn't going to be your DH, the three outfield spots are filled by veterans and if all goes well are adequately covered when one needs to sit or DH. A player like Roden NEEDS to be getting his reps in and so he will (barring injury) - in AAA. For a while. By June, if Springer's not making a noticeable comeback, both he and the organization are going to have to accept that it's a stronger team with him on the bench. And if they're not winning a lot more games than many expect, they can't wait around past mid-season to pull that unappealing trigger. Maybe at that point the recall Roden. But having all four of these guys trying to get regular playing time this year is still going to be a heck of a challenge and you don't want to hobble any of them by not getting them enough work to get in a groove.

Joey Loperfido - I believe in this guy more than most and even I sometimes forget to include him in these speculations. He could maybe start at AAA and be told to "go down there and force us to promote you" or they could accept that his opportunities will be spotty but decide to carry him as a backup because he can play CF (where either Barger or Roden would be pressed). I don't exactly see how he gets a chance to lay claim to a position as his own unless (a) something bad happens to/with Springer AND Roden isn't rolling hot in AAA at the time he might have otherwise been called. But that doesn't mean I don't respect his upside, it's just a roster construction issue.

My point is, I want to believe that every one of these players can and may very likely will surpass what has been projected from them - that would be a very exciting aspect of a successful season. But the just won't all fit. Some of these guys are going to need run that they won't find available in the majors this year. And that sucks a bit IMO. And in all this I haven't said anything about Davis Schneider, or Nathan Lukes, or Leo Jiminez, or John Kasavich, or Jonatan Clase. Because for one reason or another, in my judgement, they are all behind the guys I listed above. 

And if Vlad and Bo do get away, as painful as that would be, maybe the near-term future isn't going to be the dark valley so many seem to assume.