Jays' Rotations of the Future

Welp. Alas. Bitter dregs.

I can't imagine anything I can say about the utterly boring, predictable, tedious, news that the Dodgers have, again, added a star and they didn't even need to throw around big stinking piles of money to do so. It's crappy for the sport as a whole but I don't really know that there's anything for it. It's too early for my brain to reckon with "so what now?" type of speculation so let me go off on a different tangent. This was rattling around in my brain as a "counting sheep" type exercise last night.

Anyone who's follows the Baseball America annual Top Prospects lists knows that they do this little feature where they project a team's roster out several years based on who's in the system in the present. It's basically never particularly accurate because their are far too many variables to account for. But still, it's a tempting exercise, and what's on my mind is that - Sasaki's absence being what it is - there's a possibility that the Jays are not as bereft of SP options as the general narrative implies.

In terms of the current group, they control Jose Berrios for 2 more seasons, or 4 if he doesn't opt out (which I think there's a fair chance he won't). Kevin Gausman for 2 more, Chris Bassitt for 1, Alek Manoah and Yariel Rodriguez for 3 and Bowden Francis for six. If we assume no further additions (which seems unlikely but this is a thought exercise) then it is rational to think that the 2026 rotation looks like this:
Gausman
Berrios
Manoah
Francis
Rodriguez

But that's not the fascinating part. Here's the potential 2026 AAA rotation:
Jake Bloss - already had a full year here in '25
Ricky Tiedemann - coming back from TJ
Trey Yesavage - having barnstormed the others levels in '25
Adam Macko - also repeating the level
Kendry Rojas - newly arrived from AA (maybe)

That's basically all but one of the team's SP prospects in their Top 10 (depending on how you view Fernando Perez). At AA there will be Perez along with, likely, Khal Stephens.

So even if you - or the Jays - think Rodriguez would be better in the bullpen, there's multiple options to fill that spot. More to the point, you could do that AND lose Gausman and Berrios and (barring more injuries between now and then) have a choice of top prospects to step in. And three of them have been in or near the 100 Top Prospects list.

Now yes, it's not ideal to turn 2 or 3 spots in your rotation to rookies, but it's not necessarily an issue either, at least not like it would be if Lazaro Estrada (whom I like) was your best option,

I kinda like it when the up-and-coming players get a chance to have some run.

The Remaining Big Three

 The prevailing theory is that the Blue Jays are more or less forced to add a power hitting bat this off-season (while I ask out loud "what if that offense could come from Orelvis Martinez?" and maintain my opinion that I don't think they actually do have no choice but to make a big signing) and if that's true, we seem to be down to three free agent options. There are a couple of other quality hitters but if we're controlling for power specifically, there are three: Pete Alonso, Anthoney Santander, and Alex Bregman. 

Yes, I think it's a correct assessment that they really should get Vlad signed first to appeal to these guys and I further stand by my previous writing that $400 million is NOT an unreasonable neighborhood to play in. We already know the AAV has to be in the 30's - given his new arb-avoiding contract is for $28.5mm - so it seems like the main discussion comes down to years. For example, 33.33 AAV for 12 years is 400 and there's no reason to not do that. But I digress.

So, in the interest of having something to write about, it's worth a little effort to look at how the compare both in the abstract and as a fit the team's openings and needs. It's well established that, barring some significant surprise (like eating the rest of Springer's deal and releasing him, or trading Vlad) there are three openings to add offense - Left Field, Third Base, and Designated Hitter. These happen to align, more or less, with the three hitters in question. So the first order of business is to see whether there's a standout argument for any of them as a clearly better hitter than the others.

Here are some numbers from Baseball Reference. These are specifically drawn from the last three years for each.

Alonso: 131 OPS+, .826 OPS, 41 HR/162, 10.1 oWAR
Bregman: 124 OPS+, .798 OPS, 26 HR/162, 12.9 oWAR
Santander: 125 OPS+, .795 OPS, 37 HR/a62, 9.4 oWAR

From Fangraphs:
Alonso: 128 wRC+, .350 wOBA, 9.9 BB%, 22.1 K%, 8.7 WAR
Bregman: 127 wRC+, .347 wOBA, 11.1 BB%, 12.4 K%, 14 WAR
Santander: 124 wRC+, .340 wOBA, 8.5 BB%, 20.5 K%, 8.3 WAR

Obviously Bregman is getting a significant boost in fWAR from his defense which I don't know how to filter out except to cite their offense numbers which go 60.1 for Alonso, 52.6 for Bregman and 48.5 for Santander. Also the progression year-to-year for Santander is essentially the inverse of Alonso's.

Considering both sets, Alonso gets a big boost from what was a much better year in '22 than what he's done since, and Santander gets a similar inflation from his career year in '24. So the trends are deserving of attention, taken in the aggregate there's not a real separator here except that Bregman has a more well-rounded profile with a better BB% and OBP (albeit both dropped off last year) while the others are more pure power bats. but the net effect on the team, offensively, is very similar.

Is there then, a separator that goes beyond the home run output? 

Pete Alonso - He's 29, and durable, which are points in his favor. On the other hand, he had an astonishing rookie year and has been more-good-than-great since. He ramped up again in 2022 to a 146 OPS+ but in each of the two years since his OPS+ was slightly below what they got from Horwitz last year (his fWAR was 2.1 compared to 1.9 for Horwitz). If you say "screw it, all I'm interested in is balls over the fence" then a guy who's surpassed 40 three times in six years is on your radar. 

But he doesn't play a position of need, and he's not very good at it, yet it seems like he'd be resistant to signing to be the primary DH (and they dare not antagonize Vlad by asking him to) and he thinks he can get six years which has "Springer 2.0" written all over it.

Alex Bregman - by the "over the fence" metric, he's on a lower level. His one outlier power year was in 2019. His slugging % since that year is 24 points below the career numbers for Santander and far below Alonso (even without Alonso's rookie year he's over 50 points ahead). However, Bregman's career wRC+ is actually a bit higher than Alonso's (135 to 131) and well ahead of Santander's (113). This derives from his better plate discipline both in terms of limiting strikeout and a noticeably better OBP. 

Here's the hidden factor when focusing on power: Bregman was said to have meddled with his swing in the offseason and took several weeks after Opening Day before he worked out the problem. From May 9 through the end of the season (112 games) his OPS was .838, his slugging % was over .500 for the first time since 2019, and he homered at a pace that would have totaled 36 over a full season. If you think THAT is the bat you are buying, you feel a lot better about signing him. Plus, he's the only one of these candidates with plus defense and he fits more cleanly into the team's needs. The downside is that he's still expecting at least six years and the most expensive contract of the three. 

Anthony Santander - this comes down to how much you weigh his platform year against his prior career. Whether you take the two seasons immediately prior, or four, you get a guy who's more-good-than-great across the board. He was a 115 fWAR over that span (129 in '24) and played 3 times as many games while hitting twice as many homers. There's a real risk of paying for peak value here and never getting that value in your lineup. As a DH primarily, he's useful but the Jays have reportedly offered four years and even that is too long IMO. He's almost certain to get overpaid (all these guys could arguably get more than they will end up providing). 

Different people will come to different conclusions. The most reliable power is Alonso but a shorter contract to mostly DH (like Rys Hopkins signed last year) isn't likely to land him and more than that risks real downside. Santander is also best employed as a DH, but do you want him for four years if he's more of a 25-30 homer guy than 40+ (which seems likely)? He'd be an improvement but enough? Bregman brings more balanced and consistent offense, with a potential power upside depending on how you read last season, and quality defense at a position of need, while costing more in AAV and term. He has downside risk in the out years similar to what the Cardinals are now dealing with concerning Nolan Arenado (but won't have a contract THAT big). 

Between the three, I still come down on the side of Bregman. Both of the others seem to me to have more downside risk in the more immediate term (Bregman's would be more on the back half of the deal) and without bringing defensive value could be more of a burden.

To be fair, I should note one more possibility. Jurickson Profar had a wRC+ last season higher than Santander ever had, better than 4 of 6 Alonso seasons, and better than anything Bregman has had since 2019. However, he's been wildly inconsistent alternating good years and awful years for seven straight seasons. 

In 2024 he had 4.3 fWAR, again, better than any season from Santander or Alonso except the latter's rookie year and similar to Bregman's number in each of the last three years. He's not the same home run thread but his slugging was the equal of Alonso's in '24, better than Bregman's (on the whole season, but not in the smaller sample) and almost as high as Santander's. Even though he terrifies me (the alternating years thing) you can probably sign him for 2 years at an AAV around half of what the Big 3 are looking for. He's also a defensive liability but if you're a believer in whatever changes he made to get last year's outcome, and you don't/can't sign any of them, you wouldn't spit on this play as a mostly-DH. Still, in terms of public/pundit perception, there's no way to frame it as "we added some power to help out Vladdy." Honestly, more like a potential leadoff hitter.

Indeed, you could afford Bregman and Profar for around $38-40mm in combined AAV (I say Bregman because the other three are similar defensive liabilities). Depending on how much you want to reserve for any further pitching additions.

Who knows how long this rumination will last before it's obsolete? This is the sort of stuff you read when the news cycle is intolerably slow.

Position by Position

 

With the off-season now officially half over, and myself utterly bored with what Blue Jays may or may not be doing and the relentless tabloid style all-caps headlines describing a report or a pod that actually contains nothing new, it falls to me to revise and recycle my useless opinions. 

The least I can do then is give it a slightly different form and frame. With that intent, I'll go position by position even if it's largely stating the obvious.

Catcher - nothing to say here, they will probably look at adding someone who's a marginal upgrade on Tyler Heinemann (they'd hope) to back up Kirk. That said, most of the available options don't project to be an upgrade.

First Base - the only loose talk here is the sometimes mentioned idea of Vlad playing some 3B but I feel like if they had that as a bit of incentive for him to sign an extension we'd hear more about it. They might yet pull that rabbit out of their caps but...I doubt it. I don't think that the "some" stuff works anymore though. If you want to add someone at 1b (Alonso?) then Vlad is your regular 3B. Signs are they aren't leaning that way.

Second Base - Settled. Gimenez. In the non-zero event that they move on from Bo this winter, there's still half a dozen in-house players who've played some 2B. Up to and including Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez.

Shortstop - Bo. If he were shockingly traded likely Gimenez but if they really wanted him to stay at 2B both Leo Jimenez and Josh Kasavich are described as excellent defenders. Plus there's Clement. Some speculate about signing Ha-Seong Kim which wouldn't be irrational if someone met your price on Bo...which they won't. 

Third Base - There are only five remaining free agent position players that Fangraphs projects to reach 2.0 WAR and the best by a significant margin is Alex Bregman. His field of options is narrowing. The only teams with both the positional need and the resources to discuss his asking price are the Yankees and Blue Jays yet, oddly, neither of them seem to be heavily linked to him in the rumor mill. If you're going to risk a Springer-type outcome on a nine-figure contract you'll likely get a better return here than on an outfielder who's a liability in the field already. Absent such a signing you would expect a contest between Addison Barger and Orelvis Martinez with Ernie Clement as a safety net of sorts. As I've commented from time to time, I'm not afraid of the idea of either or both of the youngsters getting some run.

Right field - Springer seem inevitable. For me, I'd at minimum make him have to earn it. Roden, Loperfido, Barger (if not the presumptive 3B), and Clase should all go to Spring Training with the opportunity to unseat him, in my opinion. But I'm skeptical. My guess is they'll let him fail some more first. Hopefully not leading off anymore. 

Center field - Dalton Varsho, of course, when he's healthy. There's a minor uncertainty about who gets run as his most regular replacement until then. Emotionally I feel like Nathan Lukes has paid his dues and deserves a chance to take this time to prove he can do it in the majors. But on paper you can argue pretty vigorously for Joey Loperfido:

and, a half step behind him, Jonatan Clase:

In point of fact, this provokes in me a rant that's not so much a tangent as one might think. But let me hold it for half a sec.

Left Field - Those five players I mentioned earlier include three I have already alluded to, along with Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar. I've been more skeptical on both, than most. The former seems like the Springer deal without the defensive value. If you have to give him five years I'm near certain you'll be underwater on a mediocre DH in the last two, maybe three. I'd find a three-year contract tolerable - but he won't. Profar terrifies me. If they wanted to gamble something like $20 mil for 2 years...okay, fine I guess. Not sure that will be his best offer. There's also a dark horse possibility of a trade, but the only really interesting option there is Luis Robert, Jr. 

But about that rant: this front office presents itself as mostly immune to the pressures of public opinion, their valuation is their valuation. And yet, based on their minor league production, they have three entirely solid options to upgrade their OF from within in Loperfido, Roden, and Clase, as well as two fine candidates to play 3B. Yes, there's pretty intense pressure to make magic happen this year until/unless at least Vlad (you understand the impossibility of extending Bo under the circumstances) is settled but the public image is that they don't operate that way. If this is true, it would be out of character to spend bad money on an outfielder when you have actual young and cheap talent on the cusp, just because you don't want to appear cheap. If they mid dude (at best) like Verdugo just so they can give the appearance of "do something" I will riot. 

If this is your last year to prove yourself, why not prove that you have AGAIN (as you did when you acquired Teo) brought in a young player with upside to fill the holes. Indeed, your whole initial claim was that you could do just that. I know that the terminally online Jays fanbase can be toxic but I, for one, would look at an opening day line-up with Loperfido in left and Roden in right along with Barger at 3B and Martinez as the DH and smile. Not because they saved money but because I'd 100 times rather root for any of those as some retread like Profar.

Starting pitcher - with Burnes off the table, there's no "add an ace" option left. The two best guys among the well-paid class are Jack Flaherty and Nick Pivetta. Both have blemishes. The former has downside risk based on his history and the latter would be trying to buy upside that usually doesn't appear at his age. Plus Pivetta has a QO. I'm not harshly opposed to either but not enthused either. 

Beyond that you might as well try to land a value play like Spencer Turnbull or Michael Lorenzen, or push for a trade for Erik Fedde (my latest hoppy horse) if you are determined to add a major league SP of some sort.

Bullpen - Here's the gap that's most difficult to navigate between what we think and what they think. If you presume, as I do, that there's a bit over $50 million that they COULD spend without paying too high a penalty, and that Bregman would take up around half of that, then how to best spend the other 25ish? Most of us would suggest that you sign a budget SP (if you really want one) like Turnbull and invest in the bullpen. But investing in expensive relievers has never been the way of this FO. So I'll acknowledge the technical possibility of adding Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman or Carlos Estevez... I'll also say that aspiring to a year of Kirby Yates and landing AJ Minter would be all we should aspire to as fans. Which would be helpful, to be sure.

So, in summation, me personally I'd go with the youth movement on the position player crew and if I really wanted to make a big move it would be Bregman. Among pitchers, if you added Trunbull as your 5th starter and put Rodriguez in the pen, then adding Yates and Minter would fill it out - in fact it would make you want to see if you could get something interesting for Chad Green. I'm not in the crowd that will be pissy that they didn't spend just to be spending. 

 

Collecting My Thoughts

 The punditry about the Blue Jays is making me a little crazy, most particularly in terms of the budget, and some of it doesn't make sense, in my opinion.

So let's lay out some parameters. According to Fangraphs Roster Resource the Jays CBT number as of this writing is $228,470,427. Take that, and the first tax threshold this year $241 million) and that leaves about $12 million. I don't think that anyone thinks that the Jays are going to constrain themselves to staying under that threshold. There's another penalty surcharge at threshold+20, and still another at T+40 and that one is the important one I'm guessing. See the highlighted bit below:

(I'm dissatisfied with the size of the image)

The point here is that I don't think they much care about the additional surcharge on going more than $20 million over the first threshold. As an example, let's say they spend $271 million and are thus 10 million into the second tier - that will cost them a $1.2 million surcharge on top of the original tax figure which is $20% on all spending over the 241 threshold. So on 30 million over that would be 6 million plus the 1.2 million surcharge. Thats less than Yimi Garcia is going to get paid in 2025. This isn't going to impede them making a deal they want. However, at T+40 there's a MUCH more significant penalty. Now it's $42.5% on any overage dollars but more importantly, IMO, your first draft pick next year is dropped 10 spots. So I'm going on the assumption that they will not reach $280 million. Another factor here is Mark Shapiro's comment that the next payroll shouldn't be expected to move much in either direction (which was around $250 million last April.

And yet obviously Soto would have blown that up so I think that was more an evasion of a specific answer than an actual plan. So, if you're treating the real high point as 280, then your spending money is up to but no more than $52 million. So the cold reality is that if they did in fact sign Corbin Burnes, there's no more than $20mm available for every other need which is another way of saying that you're very limited in augmenting the offense. 

Before I go further let me be clear: if this teams opening day roster had Alan Roden starting in the OF and Orelvis Martinez as your primary 3B or DH I wouldn't mourn. I'm always borderline irrational in my confidence in the best prospects even if the system lacks depth (we're told) but I'm all for giving the kids room to shine. But the premise of all my speculation so far is that they don't seem likely to take that chance.

So...up to $52 million more. Barring trades (it seems to me that there's not a lot of obvious options for adding via trade) how do you make this offense better with outside editions? Here's my Plan A:

Teoscar Hernandez - 3/69 or 4/80
As I've commented before, there's no one left on the market that's a better fit because he's one of the three best hitters left, you don't need to add a lot of risky out-years, and no one else brings they "vibes" that this team and FO desperately need. Not only do the fans love him but so does Vlad and anything you can do to make Vlad more willing to sign is very much a tie-breaker if you need one.

Joc Pederson - 1/13(ish?)
You may have noticed I never mentioned this guy before Horwitz was traded because the best skill of each was basically the same. We already had a potential DH vs. RHP who might well still have upside. But they don't have that guy anymore. Pederson as the strong side of a DH platoon would potentially be a big boost to the offense even if he doesn't replicate his 2024 line. Plug Orelvis in as the other half of the platoon (and hopefully play him at 3B whenever Pederson is in the game) and this will bring a lot of production to the line-up. There remains the difficult question of who leads off but you could line it up like this:

Bo
Vlad
Teo
DH platoon
3B (Martinez/Barger)
Springer
Varsho
Kirk
Gimenez 

Alternately, you could be really bold and lead-off Gimenez to maximize the value of his speed, but that's bold confidence in his potential rebound. That's a big upgrade on where they stand right now. Even if it's not a league leading offense. So you've spent potentially $36 million out of that 52. 

With $16 left (and a fair possibility that they'll want to leave a cushion of 6-7 million for July trade additions) you can maybe sign another needed reliever (Seawald?) or two depending on the price of any given guy. But the best starter you can afford in free agency is maybe Michael Lorenzen (Lance Lynn might come in under 10?).

Bottom line - I don't see them both significantly boosting the rotation AND the offense. I'm not sure which will end up being augmented but even with the most generous payroll assumptions, it's just not possible.

The Matter of the Blue Jays' Bullpen

 [Amended] It's probably best to begin with a disclaimer about budget assumptions. Mark Shapiro indicated the budget would be something like what it was last year. Last year that was just under $222 million before the addition of the other budget lines that count towards the CBT tax threshold. Altogether that put them into the low 240's and, at the time, around 4-6 million over the first threshold of $237 million. 

It is reported that at the trade deadline they managed to shave that down under that line so, if true, that resets the clock and saves them from potentially paying a steeper penalty as for crossing the line in a second consecutive year. This year the first threshold is $241 million and the best estimates of current obligations suggests that the team has about $40 million to spend before crossing that line, although we have no indication they feel obliged to stay under it. Still, we'd only be guessing about how much more fits within Shapiro's "about the same" description.

So for the purposes of this unfounded speculation I'm going to suppose that apart from unicorn budgets they would try to stay under $50 million total additional commitments. Understanding for this thought experiment, that they're not spending the whole budget on the bullpen. Such an exercise is effectively crippled by the reports of them playing at the top of the SP market. Does that mean they'll commit half or more of their available budget to sign Burnes or Fried? Does that mean there's a budget exception (as with Soto) to sign one of them? Who the heck knows? I can only assume that if they want to add a SP and a bat that it throttles the idea of spending eight figures to add Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman (despite my "bring back former prospects" bias). So how might they build a (potentially - after last season you can't assume on anyone) worthy bullpen with a limited share of the budget?

Part of the answer is that you make trades, but since it's effectively impossible to predict such a trade, I'm speaking here in terms of free agency. 

Second caveat: there are a LOT of available relievers and major league teams have access to an insane amount of data that doesn't show up in stat lines.  I'm not even very good with publicly available stuff like spin rates and so forth. So my opinion is likely worth very little to anyone who is. Still, I like to write stuff about my team so here we are. Also, I'm going to set aside the aging guys who had surprisingly good years like Kirby Yates. Would I be at all surprised if he or someone like him is signed? No. But it only takes a superficial glance at these guys to understand that they'd be candidates. Not sure how much I'd be able to add. 

Top Priority:

Michael Soroka - assuming that they don't want to pay the price for a "proven" closer, this is probably the best upside play on the market. When the White Sox moved Soroka to the bullpen his season turned around completely. They used him often in a multi-inning role (16 games, 36 IP) which might be where some teams see his value, and some might want to try him as a starter again but if he was this good in longer outings you have to be tempted to use him at the end of games, though not confined to only one inning necessarily. In this (smallish) sample of 36 IP he struck out 60 (that's 15/9 IP) and had a 2.75 ERA/FIP while holding opposing batters to .189/.303/.291/.594 with the only blemish being a too-high walk rate of 5/9 IP. One might speculate that with more space between him and injury he'll recover his previous lower walk rate (it was 2.4/9 coming into 2024). He's going into his age 27 season.

The Sox paid him $3 million last year and you'd be getting a good deal at twice the price for '25. You could load up some incentives for appearances and saves and if possible lock him up for more than one season. At his age and with his pedigree it's a chance I'd take. Late reporting suggests he's getting offers as a starter which might put this out of reach.

RH support:

The team already has Green and Swanson so this is the one part of the 'pen that's not in panic mode But one of the better options to add via free agency (without shopping at the top of the market) is Paul Sewald. He got paid $7.35mm last year by Arizona and he took a bit of a step back from the previous three seasons which were successful and consistent. Mainly driven by allowing more contact and posting a slightly lower K rate. But over the previous three years combined he had a 2.95 ERA, a 135 ERA+, and 12.2 K/9 over 189.1 IP. It will be his age 35 season so it's hard to speculate about salary and term but I'm going to suggest he should fall in that same 7-8 million range. The problem here is whether he'll prioritize situations where he's first in line to close.

Edit to add: I overlooked Andrew Kittredge, Chris Martin and Tommy Kahnle. From 2021 to 2024 Kittredge posted a 2.48 ERA over 174 IP with a 3.62 FIP and a 165 ERA+ and The Athletic notes that his 38.9 percent chase rate was the best in baseball. Martin is going into his age 39 season, which would normally suggest caution, but he has possibly the most elite ability in the league in one valuable skill - man doesn't walk ANYONE. His career BB/9 is 1.2and it hasn't been higher than 1.5 in any season since 2018. It's not just an odd skill either, his ERA is 2.82 in almost 200 IP since the short season. Kahnle has had one bad year (2018) since 2016 and he had a 2.11 ERA in 2024 and if I'm fair, I'd rather sign either of than Sewald. I'll also offer a nod to the idea of bringing back Yimi Garcia if he's healthy. There are a lot of worse options.

LH Needed

The one to chase here is AJ Minter. He's had one off year in his career and that was in 2019. Since then he has a 2.85 ERA (2.84 FIP) and a 151 ERA+ over 243 IP. He put up 10.8 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 and kept the ball in the park. One might quibble that he had a really low BABip compared to the rest of his career but that's really picking the nits. He made $6.2 million in Atlanta last year and he's no secret so he might be the most expensive guy I've mentioned. You'd probably need to go 2 and maybe 3 years to get him, something around 3/25 maybe? They should. 

A less expensive alternative is Danny Coulombe. He made 2.3 n Baltimore last year and they declined a $4 million option for 2025. But that was cheaping out unless they know something we don't. He did lose three months to injury last year but he pitched in the majors in September. Over four seasons ('21-'24) he posted a 2.75 ERA (3.17 FIP) to support a 148 ERA+. He has good ratios, keeps the HR rate down and isn't just a lefty killer. On the other hand he also had an outlier BABip in '24 of just .179 for whatever that's worth. Adding three of these would cost you somewhere between $17 and $23 million next year depending on which lefty you sign.

And yes, BTW, if someone is going to sign Tim Mayza to a minor league deal it should be Toronto. He wasn't a beast for the Yankees by any means but he wasn't a mess. They have, obviously, a better conception of WHY he was so bad for the Jays last season and whether there's hope for a rebound, so this might just be sentimentality on my part - but stranger comebacks have happened.

I guess the takeaway here is that once you get away from the expensive closer options, the overstuffed market isn't saturated with guys who inspire a ton of confidence that they're the answer to Toronto's bullpen situation so don't sleep too long unless you're confident in some helpful trades. On that point, while it's foolish to guess at trades, a line that got my attention is a youngster on the Marlins' roster named Andrew Nardi. The 26 year old lefty put up an ERA was an unpleasant 5.01 but he has a career K/9 of 12.4 (12.7 in '24) and his FIP was 3.33 so the ERA is likely very misleading. This is the kind of guy that you'd expect a team like the Jays to look at trading for. Robert Garcia, a slightly older lefty who pitched for the Nationals would be a similarly appealing target. Such under the radar guys are scattered around the league, sometimes playing for a team who'd rather turn that guy into, say, Leo Jimenez or Davis Schneider or some such.

We'll see. 

The Elegant Solution for a Vlad Extension

I remarked (in the bad place) a couple of months ago that for all the beat reporters and pundits and "insiders" that are asked to speculate about what it would take to extend Vlad Guerreo Jr's contract through the rest of his career none of them ever reference what, to me, seems the most blindingly obvious comp.

I'm recycling and expanding upon that thought here because it still seems to me to be really obvious.

There's a player out there right now, playing the same position (now) who signed at the same age that Vlad will be this offseason and their production through their age 25 season is stunningly comparable. Take a look:

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (2019-2024) vs. Bryce Harper (2013-2018): Head-to-Head Stats Comparison | Stathead.com 

It's Bryce Harper, y'all. It couldn't be more obvious.

I mean, I get bringing up Rafael Devers as a more recent comp but the match is not really as clean. It's instructive in some ways as a guide to what contract inflation would look like, but in terms of age and production and anticipated future value, you can't do better than Harper. And you certainly can't suggest he'd be in the stratosphere with Soto.

It's true that Harper was a right fielder at the time, and that adjustment matters some but that tends to get washed away by the inflation anyway. After all, Vlad's whole major league career has come after Harper's deal was signed. The nature of this game is that the contract structure always spirals upward.

So, what was that contract? 13 years, $330 million, 25.38 million AAV

The breakdown on Cott's is slightly different from what you see above, with a $10 million first year, nine years at $26 million, and the last three at $22 million. And with a $20 million signing bonus which BR amortized over the length of the deal.  But it adds up the same. For the purpose of this exercise I'll lay aside potential bonuses and such.

That contract is still the 8th highest ever signed in total value (pending Soto's) and only two of those higher than his are infielders. 

So here's my framework:
First, take Harper's deal and add a 14th year (for enough to raise the AAV to at least $26 million) - that takes your total to $364 million. That would make him the highest paid infielder in the majors by total contract value and 4th overall, for now. That's just ONE million behind Mookie Betts so let's add $2 million more and that would make him 3rd overall (until Soto). There would be five infielders with a higher AAV, all of them shortstops except former SS Manny Machado, and Deavers.

That would sign him through age 39. My inclination would be to limit the first two seasons (until Springer is off the books) to something like $24 million each, and to taper off the last four to something like $20 each (on average) knowing that $20 million in 2038 will be a lot less money than it is now. Make $10 mil a signing bonus, another $10 million deferred (or a secondary payment on the signing bonus in, say, five years) and what's left works out to $27 million a year through the eight years on average, that would presumably be the heart of his productive years. Maybe given the arb estimate you do $30 per for years 3-6 and $17 million in those last 4 years? But now I'm into the weeds. If you just had to in order to make the deal, give him an opt out halfway through but I'd rather not.

So he ends up making more than his best comp, holding the biggest deal ever for an infielder and the third highest AAV for an infielder who's not a SS. And the fourth overall (which will be 5th by opening day). I feel like that checks enough boxes to get it done.

I'm sure some will say "Too much!" and maybe if you were signing a guy away from another teams as the Phillies did Harper you'd have to really ponder. But right now and for the rest of his career if you get this done, Vlad *IS* the Toronto Blue Jays. You either go to the wall to keep him or you strip the whole thing down to the kids and start over.

Let's not.

Thoughts on What's Next

 First things first. Extend Vlad. That's the first obligation whether or not it's the first thing that happens. I've got a take on what that could and should look like (hint: Start with Bryce Harper as a baseline) but that's for another day. 

Second, if you CAN sign Soto, do it. If indeed he's got a unicorn budget line as was said of Ohtani last winter, then just top every other offer. It's worth remembering that baseball salary inflation means that $42 million next year isn't the same as $42 million 12 years hence. 

Also, Sasaki, but that's more out of team control (because virtually everyone can play in that market) and it's likely to not happen until January 15 anyway. Plus, this one will mostly be about offense.

One caveat: I'm not in the fan-camp of "they must do big things to prove they are trying." Apart from signing Vlad which is an absolute must, I actually wouldn't be outraged by a team that gave runway to Martinez and Barger and Wagner et al. However, I can't imagine that's what they end up doing given the pressure that last season's failure put on everything and everyone. Moves WILL happen.

So this is my list of moves I find most appealing. Some of them would be canceled out by signing Soto, but not all of them. And some would actually be MORE desirable as a compliment to adding Soto. A few will hinge on Vlad playing 3B, most won't.

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My favorite: Vlad to 3B (maybe), trade for Brent Rooker. Of course, the A's are saying they don't want to trade him and if they do, you'd have to outbid a lot of other interested teams, which I would think starts with Orelvis and includes someone like Bloss and a couple of other guys with actual upside. Moving Vlad relates to Horowitz. If they don't think Vlad can play 3B against almost every RHSP then the alternate path is trade Horowitz to address another need (probably a RP they really like?) and that would mean 3B still needs attention.

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How about thinking big? The Jays have $45 million still to pay out to George Springer for what seems likely to be below average production. And he plays a position where replacements are easier to find than at, say, 3B. Meanwhile, in a very rare event, the St. Lousi Cardinals are described as wanting to shed payroll and work towards a reset. Among their contracts is one Nolan Arenado who's still owed $74 million (10 of which is being paid by Colorado) over the next three seasons. So a straight swap would save the Cards $19 million total and the Jays could address their 3B hole by just adding $4.5 million in '25 and $15 million in '27. Of course THAT deal wouldn't happen, you'd have to give the Cards some additional cash and probably a prospect or two for sweetener. Say you kick in $5 mil in each of Springers 2 remaining years which would mean they'd save almost half of what they still own Arenado, And say Horowitz along with another guy in the 15-20 range on their prospect list. That's in the right neighborhood I'd think - assuming you could convince Arenado to waive his no-trade clause. To be clear, he seems to be in an offensive decline too, and there's risk there of continued decline, but the Springer money is already spent and if it can be redirected to 3B instead of the OF that's likely still an improvement, and leaves enough money to go chase another bat maybe.

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Sign Willy Adames or Alex Bregman. In theory, if they have around $40 mil to spend apart from whatever they would pay Soto, they should be able to build up around him and Vlad. 3B is a need - unless you just want to let Clement or one of the kids (Barger/Martinez) have it and put them at the bottom of the order and do your ads elsewhere. The options to add from the outside here are THIN once you get beyond these two. Well, there's Kim but he might miss half the season which doesn't scream "problem solved." I don't love the idea of paying Bregman through his age 37 season. There's real "Springer 2.0" risk there. But I'm writing this under the assumption that the Jays FO will not just "trust the kids" if they have an opportunity.

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Teo. I mean, realistically he could be back with the Dodgers by the time you read this. But just describing ideas I like here, no one else among hitters (except Soto) addresses the bad vibes of the last couple of years like bringing him home. Of course, he has to be open to increasingly being a DH as the years pass.

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Here's something that takes a bit more explaining. I see folks talking about signing Joc Pederson AND Tyler O'Neil and platooning them, but we already have the Pederson side of that in Spencer Horowitz. I hesitate to call it a platoon since they're obviously not playing the same position, but if Horowitz DHed and hit 4th against every* RHSP and O'Neil played left and hit 4th against every lefty, that's a very fine cleanup hitter. O'Neil wouldn't sign to only play against lefties so he'd get at least that many at-bats (subject to health) vs RH, but just hit 7th or so. Horowitz can sit vs LH and make space for others to rotate through DH. In this scenario O'Neil would be a lot cheaper add than Teo or Santander, maybe half the cost, which is a selling point as long as you make good use of the savings. Most would conclude this wasn't enough additional offense though, and this idea is only appealing if you have some idea what the other (offensive) add might be. The trade market has surprisingly few difference-makers. In fact, in most cases, whether potential trades or signings once you get past the crowd who'll expect to make at least $20m AAV, I'd just as soon see what Martinez, Barger, Loperfido, Rhoden, Clase etc could do. That would be a hard sell unless they signed some really impressive pitching too.

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Try for Luis Robert. I'm not sure whether the White Sox want to move everyone who might have value but he'd be a solid gamble on bouncing back. A contract for $15 mil next year is manageable and if he does get back to his ceiling those two $20 million option years would be an easy decision. 

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For completeness, I'll note that Taylor Ward could do the role I described for O'Neil above, and I only hesitate to mention him because the Angels aren't acting like sellers. But he fits. 

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So here's a dream scenario for the offense this offseason, all things that are not in conflict with each other and are not budget busters (assuming the Unicorn exception for Soto):

Extend Vlad
Sign Soto 
Trade for Rooker - likely Martinez++
Trade Springer+Horowitz+?? for Arenado

Lineup:

Soto
Bo
Vlad
Rooker
Arenado
Barger (Loperfido, Rhoden - spring would tell)
Kirk
Varsho
Wagner

Wildly unlikely but not inherently impossible. The kind of bold strokes necessary when it's your last big swing before potentially getting fired.